Windy, Much Colder

The heaviest rain across the state is well to our east, but light showers will continue to fall through 10 a.m. The cold front passed through the county just a short time ago, but the cold air is not far behind. When this cold air arrives, temperatures will begin to drop throughout the day and should be near 41 by noon and 37 by 5 p.m. The sunshine may return late this afternoon, but this will not be able to help temperatures, especially with west northwest winds crossing a snow pack across Arkansas. Speaking of winds, they will be strong today with gusts up the 25 mph, which will only make temperatures feel even colder this afternoon. The winds will only become stronger tonight with some gusts up to 30 mph possible before midnight. Mostly clear skies and dry air favor radiational cooling, but strong winds will keep the near ground layer mixed enough to prevent temperatures from plummeting. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 26.

The trend in the model guidance for Friday's storm system is southward. Although the pattern certainly favors a suppressed storm track, it just seems as though most models are a little too flat with the 500 mb pattern, including the European model. Many systems this year, particularly forecast by the GFS, have been too flat in their medium range solutions. The European is not typically as flat as the GFS, so this does lend some support for the GFS. However, the 00Z Canadian solution shows a slightly deeper system, which induces weak ridging downstream. This results in a low pressure track that is along the northern Gulf Coast. This solution seems to be more meteorologically sound, but it is worth noting that the Canadian is an outlier. I do think the global models will eventually shift back to the north again, but it probably won't be as far north as the Canadian.

So what does this mean for Friday's weather? There is a good chance for accumulating snows in Alabama. I still think the best chance of snow will be to our south, but even around Tuscaloosa, we still have a chance of seeing some light snow. I'll post any new thoughts I might have tomorrow morning.

Rain Arrives After Midnight

The million dollar question in today's forecast is whether or not we will see the sun. Low clouds have stubbornly persisted across the area all weekend, and it looks like they may hold tough this morning. What will likely break up the clouds will be a developing storm system in West Texas. This will cause a cold surface high to shift to our east and allow southeasterly winds to commence late this morning. Vertical mixing should gradually break up the low cloud deck after noon. However, additional clouds streaming eastward in advance of the storm system in Texas will not allow much in the way of sunshine today. Based on this scenario, highs should top out around 51. If the low clouds don't break up today, highs will stay in the upper 40s. By this evening, the low pressure across Texas will move to the east northeast and should be located in southwest Alabama around sunrise tomorrow morning. Light rain should spread into the state after midnight and become heavier after 3 a.m., but total rainfall amounts should generally be near a half inch. The rain will stick around through sunrise but should be light in intensity. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 45.

Today will likely be the warmest day of the week as modified arctic air pours into the state. I'll be keeping a close eye on a storm system at the end of the week. The pattern supports a very favorable storm track for accumulating snows in Alabama on Friday. At this time, the best threat for snow may actually be to our south, but there's no question that all the players are on the field.

Cool, Damp

Other than a few lingering showers across the eastern part of the county, all other areas are dry. These showers should exit to the east shortly, and we'll remain relatively dry for the remaining daylight hours, although, there may be some drizzle. Temperatures won't rise much today with highs topping out near 51, and temperatures may actually begin to drop slowly after noon as a colder air mass begins to move in. A tight pressure gradient will ensure a breezy day with gusts up to 25 mph. The upper level energy will rotate through tonight, so there will likely be some additional showers between 7 p.m. and midnight. Strong west northwest winds will create very window conditions after midnight with some gusts up to 30 mph. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 39.

Saturday will be cold with morning drizzle and highs in the low to mid 40s. We may finally see the sunshine return Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will warm up briefly Monday and Tuesday ahead our next storm system. An glancing blow from an arctic air mass arrives by Wednesday and will result in temperatures below normal for the remainder of the work week.

Wet, Cool

It will be a wet 24 hours as a surface low moves out of the Gulf of Mexico, and most communities around the area will receive over an inch of rain. Light to moderate rain will continue to fall this morning, and the rain will become heavier this evening as the strongest forcing approaches the area. Temperatures will be chilly today with an afternoon high around 48. Temperatures will actually begin to rise after midnight as the surface wave advects warmer air into the area. The temperature will actually rise to and remain steady at 54 through sunrise. The rain should begin to decrease in intensity off after 2 a.m., but it will still be a wet commute to work and school tomorrow morning.

Dry, Clouds Stream In

We should be able to sneak in one more dry day before a developing storm system in Texas ejects eastward. The fringe of this system already extends into our area with some high clouds moving through. Additional and thicker clouds are located across Louisiana and those should push into the state later this afternoon. A surface high over the Great Lakes and an organizing area of low pressure across Mexico will allow winds to veer around to the northeast. This should keep us slightly cooler today than yesterday with highs topping out near 57. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening and overnight. There is a very slight chance of see rain moving into the area before sunrise, but I think we should remain dry as the leading edge of the precipitation will be just to our south and west. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 40.

Some Clouds, Comfortable

Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning, so that means six more weeks of winter. Our weather certainly won't feel winter-like today once we get rid of the low clouds that are currently in place. This will occur later this morning and early afternoon as low-level moisture becomes scoured out by a departing shortwave trough. This will leave us in a zonal flow aloft, which should promote temperatures slightly above normal today. A few clouds will likely stick around through this afternoon, but enough peeks of sunshine should boost highs near 58. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, but it seems as though moisture will increase in the lowest 1,000 feet after midnight. This should allow skies to become increasingly cloudy. Still, lows tomorrow morning will still dip down to 31.

The groundhog doesn't have the most stellar forecast track record, but I think he may be on to something this year. The global pattern definitely supports a return to very cold air over the next couple of weeks as pressures continue to build across the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. A strong stratospheric warming event is beginning near the pole, and this will only enhance the air mass across Siberia and northwestern North America. I don't think the duration of the cold will be as long as what we saw in the first half of January, but I won't be surprised to see some record-breaking temperatures by the time February ends. Adding fuel to the fire is an active subtropical jet stream that should become even more established in the next 10-14 days. These factors argue for a cold and stormy period down the road.

Increasing Clouds, Warmer

After a cold start to begin the work week, temperatures are warming quickly into the 30s. It appears that there will be a window of opportunity this morning for temperatures to continue warming unimpeded, but clouds will be on the increase this afternoon in advance of a weak upper level shortwave. Still, it will feel much warmer as highs rebound up to 56 this afternoon. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower as we go into the evening and overnight hours, and there may even be some light showers before midnight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 37. Our next chance of rain arrives on Thursday, but it should exit by the weekend. The weekend looks like nice but cool.