Sunny, Slightly Warmer

This is the coolest morning of the season with temperatures running in the upper 40s to near 50. We'll rebound nicely into the 70s this afternoon under sunny skies. Our weather pattern will quickly be changing thanks to a strong upper air trough moving through the Intermountain West. Our upper level trough that brought the cooler weather will have less influence today, and we'll even be on the edge of upper level ridging by late tonight. This will induce weak warming aloft, which will equate to slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. In fact, highs should top out near 76 this afternoon. As the western trough continues translating eastward, lee side cyclogenesis will commence late this afternoon in northeast Colorado. As a result, winds will begin to veer to the southeast overnight, which should keep temperatures a little warmer overnight. Lows should be near 52 tomorrow morning.

Perfect Fall Weather

Soil moisture played a big role overnight in keeping temperatures in the lower 50s as opposed to the upper 40s. Still, it's a crisp morning, and you may even need a light jacket if you're headed to work or an early class. Today will be the coolest day of the week as an upper air trough continues to deepen to our east. Weak cold air advection aloft will continue throughout the day, which should prevent deep mixing from taking place. As a result, highs will top out near 74 despite full sunshine. Winds will be slightly weaker than yesterday but still gusting near 15 mph at times this afternoon. Another good radiational setup will be in the cards with light winds, clear skies, and very dry air. I don't say it's ideal because of the residual soil moisture. This will likely keep lows in the upper 40s instead of the mid 40s. Look for the low tomorrow morning to be a chilly 48.

Reinforcing Shot of Cool, Dry Air

The cold front that swept through on Saturday provided a nice fall day yesterday. A secondary frontal boundary that is approaching northwest Mississippi will push through the area later this morning and will supply us with some cool and dry air. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase to between 10-15 mph and dew points will rapidly drop into the 50s by early this afternoon. No rain will occur today, but a few clouds will accompany the front this morning. Although the surface front will move through later this morning, the frontal boundary above the surface will lag behind until late this afternoon. This will keep low-level temperatures rather warm, and highs should be able to top out near 80. By this evening, skies will be clear and winds should begin to subside as the boundary layer decouples. Temperatures should rapidly drop into the 60s by 8 p.m. If the soils weren't completely saturated, I would feel confident that lows could easily drop into the 40s. However, I think this will probably keep low temperatures near 50 tomorrow morning.

Warm and Humd; Small Chance of PM Storm

We were fortunate enough to dodge most of the rain yesterday, but we extended our rainy day streak to 11 days. A weak frontal boundary is now located on the Mississippi/Alabama state line, but the air mass change is hardly noticeable. A true cold front stretches from eastern Texas northeast through eastern Missouri. The closed upper low that has been spinning over the Plains states for a few days will open up today and move slowly eastward. The main lift from it will not affect our area until tomorrow, but the true cold front to our west may still generate enough lift for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, we should see more in the way of sunshine today, so temperatures will top out near 85 this afternoon. Any storms that develop this afternoon should dissipate by 10 p.m., which means Bulldog Bash should go off without a hitch. Mostly cloudy skies will remain in place with temperatures dropping to near 71 tomorrow morning.

There are major model differences regarding tomorrow morning's weather. The NAM and GFS suggest that rain will be a problem for the MSU/LSU game. However, the UKMET and regional and global GEM suggest tomorrow morning is relatively dry. With decent dynamics in place and a true frontal boundary pushing toward the area, I would be shocked if there aren't showers and a few thunderstorms that develop tomorrow morning. I suggest to plan for some rain for tailgating and the game. After the front moves through, much drier air will filter into the state and provide some pleasant morning temperatures.

Recent Rainfall Statistics

A combination of a tropical low and two cut-off upper level lows have made for a very wet couple of weeks around the area and region. My CoCoRaHS station has collected rain every day since September 14. Since that day, a total of 8.8" has fallen! Here are some select monthly totals from gauges around Oktibbeha County:
MSU Climate Lab (Hilbun Hall): 8.74"
MS-OK-1 (0.8 mi SW of Starkville): 8.50"
MS-OK-4 (2.7 mi WSW of Starkville): 7.90"
MS-OK-6 (5.3 mi S of Starkville): 12.21"
MS-OK-10 (7.2 mi SW of Starkville): 10.82"
MS-OK-11 (1.4 mi N of Starkville): 7.28"
MS-OK-19 (2.2 mi E of Starkville): 9.12"

It finally appears the wet weather will end by Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the area. A slightly cooler and much drier air mass will advect into the region for several days. The next chance of rain likely won't arrive until the end of next week.

Wet Streak Continues

A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Attala and Choctaw Counties. This area of rain shouldn't affect the county, but additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again today. Despite the model guidance suggesting a rather dry dry, I just don't get the idea we'll be that dry today. A weak frontal boundary remains located across western Mississippi, and this feature will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning later this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will dominate again today, and persistence seems to be the way to go with highs topping out near 84. Showers should come to an end by 9 p.m., but mostly cloudy skies will keep lows near 71 tomorrow morning.

Another Chance for Rain

A weak frontal boundary located along the Mississippi River this morning will push slowly eastward today and should be located between Starkville and Winona this evening. There are not a lot of upper level dynamics working with this front, so surface convergence alone will be the primary lifting mechanism. None of the models have a real good handle on the current surface features, but I expect another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms again today. Satellite images suggest that a few breaks in the clouds should occur later this morning, which should boost temperatures into the low to mid 80s today. In fact, highs should top out around 84 this afternoon. Rain chances will continue through 9 p.m., but we should be dry afterward. Lows should drop to 70 tomorrow morning. If you're tired of the cloudy and wet weather, then look forward to some cooler and drier weather early next week!