Gustav Poised to Explode

After appearing that Gustav had nearly died last night, it is alive and well this morning. Indeed, for sometime last evening, it appeared that Haiti had severely disrupted the circulation enough that Gustav might not recover for a couple of days. However, a burst of convection formed near Jamaica and the center evidently re-formed near that area. In fact, Gustav looks incredibly impressive on satellite imagery this morning with intense convection clustered near the center. Additionally, the S-shaped appearance suggests that strong outflow jets are beginning to form, and this is a sign that Gustav is poised to strengthen quite rapidly once it gets past Jamaica.


A strong ridge is located to the northwest of Gustav and even steered the storm southwest overnight. Its current motion continues WSW and this should continue until this afternoon. Joe Bastardi made an excellent call on this yesterday. The strong ridge should steer Gustav west and eventually WNW for the next 48-60 hours. After that time, Gustav should be on the southwest side of the ridge and will begin to turn more to the NW. Despite the recent model flip-flops, I'm still not changing my landfall area. In fact, at this point, I'm leaning a bit closer to a Rita type landfall rather than a Galveston landfall. My thinking is a compromise of the 06Z HWRF and 00Z NOGAPS solutions.

Short-term intensity issues revolve around interaction with Jamaica and some dry air to the north of Gustav. Otherwise, the environment looks highly supportive of strengthening. However, land interaction and dry air are certainly two impediments that will quickly halt any strengthening. In fact, I wouldn't be surprise to see the mountains of Jamaica have some negative impact on the intensity. While not as rugged as Haiti, Jamaica's elevation (3,000-5,000 ft) is still high enough to disrupt the core of Gustav. I don't think Gustav will take nearly the beating as it did by interacting with Haiti. Also, the dry air to the north is of some concern in the short-term as well. If any dry air is entrained into the center, Gustav will probably weaken somewhat. However, if Gustav is able to keep the dry air away from its center, Jamaica will be the only impediment to short-term rapid intensification.

After Gustav passes by Jamaica early tomorrow morning, the environment appears supportive of intensification. However, the GFS continues to insist that wind shear may be high enough to limit rapid intensification. I'm not buying that given that Gustav will be underneath a strong anticyclone and high oceanic heat content beneath it. The dry air should moisten up by tomorrow and this all argues for rapid intensification by Saturday. Given that Gustav will traverse the loop current, a reservoir of very warm and deep water, it's very possible it could be a Category 4 hurricane when it enters the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

I still think Gustav attains Category 5 status in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend. It's still impossible to forecast a specific intensity at landfall due to eye wall replacement cycles. Additionally, increased wind shear may even weaken Gustav before it makes landfall with the U.S. However, I still feel that Gustav makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Sabine Pass, TX on Tuesday.


Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Hanna may also pose a threat to the U.S. East Coast next week. It looks very impressive now and it also could become a formidable hurricane down the road. If that wasn't enough, a large flare up of convection in the Bay of Campeche occurred overnight. However, it shouldn't strengthen much since it is so close to land. Elsewhere, another tropical wave is located over the Eastern Atlantic, but it won't pose much of a threat until it moves west into warmer waters. Finally, another easterly wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and it may develop in a couple of days. I'll be happy when the current Madden-Julian burst leaves the Atlantic!