Early Showers, Clearing This Afternoon

The deep trough that dug into the Central Plains became cut-off and is stalled to the northwest of us. Even though the main upper air system stalled, it easily drove a cold front through the area overnight. Rainfall amounts were lighter (0.13" at MSU) than I expected because a large complex of thunderstorms developed to our south in the Gulf of Mexico and cut-off the inflow into the line of rain along the cold front yesterday. Heavier amounts were found in Northern Mississippi, but those amounts were even less than I expected.

It's a chilly, raw morning to start off the day with showers currently falling around the county. This rain should exit the area by 9:00, but clouds should hang tough for most of the day. The back edge of the clouds is still in Eastern Arkansas, but we could see the sun later this afternoon. This makes for a tricky forecast with this timing. If the sun comes out in the early afternoon, I think we might be able to make it up in the mid 60s, especially with some warmer temperatures aloft. However, I think the clouds hang on through mid-afternoon and we only manage to top out in the lower 60s. When you wake up tomorrow, morning temperatures will be cool with lows around 44.

The weekend looks perfect, but I recommend staying inside on Saturday and watching some big time college football games. If you do any outdoor activities, highs will be in the 70s and morning lows will be in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday. I still have a high degree of confidence that we turn cooler next week, but the models are now in agreement on keeping the coldest air to our east. If this is true, it will be cooler next week but highs will likely be in the 60s rather than the 50s. We probably will also stay above freezing at night, but if the colder air mass is further west, temperatures will be even colder.