Showers, Turning Cooler

Warm air advection and isentropic upglide aided in the development of clouds and showers that occurred early this morning. This also occurred just ahead of a cold front that is currently located along the Mississippi River. Showers are possible throughout the day, but the better chance of rain will arrive later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. With some cold air aloft, a thunderstorm is even possible tonight as there will be marginal elevated instability present. I'm not expecting big problems with severe weather, but a rumble or two of thunder is possible. This system is much stronger than the one that moved through last week, so expect rainfall amounts to be much heavier. I think amounts close to one inch are possible with even heavier amounts possible north of Starkville. Temperatures are a tough forecast today with clouds and showers around. If there is a prolonged break between rain this morning and this afternoon, I think we'll top out in the mid 60s. If we have a shorter break between rain, we'll probably stay in the lower 60s. I'm leaning toward mid 60s given the gap between the showers in Central Mississippi and East Mississippi and the slow eastward progession of the rain to the west of Starkville.

The cold front comes sweeping through tonight and showers and possibly a thunderstorm will become more likely at this time. Rain is still possible behind the cold front and will linger through Friday morning. When you wake up tomorrow, temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s. I think clouds hang tough tomorrow in the wake of the cold front and keep temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 tomorrow.

We won't receive a prolonged period of cold weather due to the trough becoming cut-off. However, next week looks to promise a sharper change to cold weather as a deep trough and Canadian cold front approach the area. There is excellent model and ensemble support for this cold snap so I feel pretty confident that it turns cold. If this verifies, we could have the potential for our first freeze and highs in the 50s. Should feel much more like fall next week!