Two waves of interest are in the Atlantic at this time. The first will be impacting the Lesser Antilles today, but it doesn't currently appear impressive. Wind shear is fairly high (~25 knots), and this may keep this wave from developing. However, a few of the models do develop this system, but they aren't aggressive with the strength. If the wave can survive until Sunday, there may be some chance for development. Regardless, it looks like this wave will likely be re-curve out to sea before impacting the U.S.
The more impressive wave is southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and this may develop into a named system over the weekend. The only negative factor inhibiting development is significant wind shear in the proximity of this wave. Until the shear relaxes, this wave will likely not develop quickly, if at all. However, shear is forecast to decrease over the weekend, and most model guidance does develop this into Nana. I don't think this will pose a threat to the U.S. and will re-curve harmlessly out to sea. Most of our late season threats come from development close to home rather than the long-track Cape Verde systems.
WINTER WEATHER
The strong Western U.S. trough is poised to eject into the Rockies over the weekend and will bring the season's first snow to parts of the Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas. The heaviest snow will likely be in the higher elevations and Montana. With most early season storms, this is not a deep polar air mass, but it's certainly cold enough to support a good snow event for these areas. Mountainous areas could receive over 2 feet of snow and some local totals outside higher terrain could exceed a foot! Not too shabby.
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Check back for a severe weather discussion later today!
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