Rain Returns

A strong cold front is located from Eastern Texas to Iowa but is quickly becoming occluded and losing its punch. Still, this front will have plenty of gas left to affect our weather. We've been dry for almost two weeks, but that will come to an end tonight and early Friday morning as the cold front approaches. For the large majority of today, expect partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures again. We'll finally have warmer temperatures aloft to support highs around 77 this afternoon. The cold front approaches by this evening and moisture should really increase. A line of showers and thunderstorms will organize along the front and these should arrive in Oktibbeha County just before midnight. The rain and storms may very well be lingering around for your drive to work Friday morning with temperatures remaining steady near 60.

The prospects of severe weather don't look very promising to me. First of all, an occluding front isn't the most ideal lifting mechanism for storms in the first place. Still, the lift will be present for thunderstorms to develop, but instability should remain very meager and should inhibit most of the storms from becoming severe. The chances for severe weather are higher further south and west in Mississippi where slightly higher instability will reside this afternoon and evening.

It looks like temperatures will remain rather cool for a few days after the frontal passage. However, we're in a very active pattern and our next weather maker will arrive next Tuesday or Wednesday. I'll be keeping a close eye on this system because some models are forecasting higher instability with that system. However, the track of the system will be a key to whether we deal with severe weather or not. If it tracks to our south, we won't deal with much severe weather, but if it's to our north, chances for severe weather will increase. I'll be very surprised if we make it through November 20 without at least one severe weather episode.