Don't Get Used to the Warmth

We managed to drop to freezing earlier this morning when the winds went calm, but they picked again and the temperature quickly rose above freezing. We'll be a long way from freezing this afternoon as southeasterly winds usher a warmer and more moist air mass ahead of a developing cold front. Despite very warm temperatures aloft that would support 70s with ideal mixing, we won't manage to mix deep enough to tap the reservoir of warmer temperatures. With mixing up to about 2,000 feet, we'll still be able to warm into the 60s today with full sunshine. Based on a similar environment to our west and southwest yesterday, I'll hedge my forecast high above guidance and forecast 64.

Clouds will increase in advance of a quick moving cold front tonight and rain will likely begin early tomorrow morning and should last through 9 AM. I don't expect any flooding rains given the speed of the system, but it wouldn't take a lot of water to create additional problems. Temperatures will remain steady overnight around 51. Temperatures won't drop off much tomorrow even despite frontal passage, but Sunday looks much colder as an upper air trough moves through.