Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Cloudy, Cool, and Wet; Thunderstorms Tonight

It's another chilly morning despite the high clouds that rolled in overnight. The temperature bounced around the upper 20s most of the night, but it has since risen to 30. An upper level ridge will continue to build over the region today and warm air advection will commence aloft. However, a pesky upper air disturbance will produce considerable cloud cover and rain showers throughout the day and we likely won't see the sunshine at all. Thanks in large part to the cloud cover and rain, we will not be able to mix high enough in the atmosphere to tap the warmer air. I think the afternoon high will be a chilly 49.

Rain chances will ramp up tonight as a warm front moves northward. In fact, slightly more unstable air will be the result of the retreating front and some thunderstorms will be likely. In fact, with elevated instability aloft, some storms will be capable of producing hail. In fact, the SPC has included Starkville in a slight risk of severe tonight with the potential for hail being the main threat. This won't be a major outbreak, but an isolated severe storm is possible overnight. Temperatures will actually rise overnight as the warm front retreats northward and our warmest temperature during the day will likely occur just before midnight. By tomorrow morning, the temperature will be around 55.

***Update: As of 7:30 a.m., sleet has begun to fall in Starkville as the onset of the rain arrived early enough to support wintry weather. This will not pose a problem as temperatures have risen above freezing, and the sleet should turn to rain within the next hour as temperatures warm aloft.

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