Friday, June 12, 2009

Rain This Morning, Warm Later, & Storms Overnight

A weakening line of thundershowers is moving through the county as I type and should exit by 9:00 a.m. This may not be the only time it rains this morning, and in fact, showers continue to move in our direction from Western Mississippi. It's also possible that isolated thundershowers may pop up this afternoon. However, the upper level energy responsible for the current rain may create enough warming aloft as it passes to the east and this may squash the threat of rain later today. The majority of the morning will feature more clouds than sun, but we should see more sun later this morning and for the afternoon. Highs will once again be on the warm side with most areas topping out in the upper 80s; I'll forecast a high of 89 this afternoon. I think the best chance to get wet will be overnight as another convective complex forms to our northwest and drifts into the area after 4 a.m. The storms may be on the strong side overnight given the strengthening upper level winds and lingering instability. Granted, I don't expect a severe weather outbreak or anything, but one or two storms could be severe with damaging winds being the primary threat. The low tomorrow morning will be 71.

**11:00 a.m. update to forecast: A well-organized squall line over Northeast Oklahoma will move to the southeast throughout the course of the day. It appears that this complex will arrive in our area by this evening and could bring a chance of severe weather to the area between 7-9 p.m. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms.

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