Some Clouds, Mild

Mostly clear skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop well into the 30s. Clouds have been on the increase this morning in advance of a subtle upper level disturbance and within a weak warm air advection regime. A lead shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners has initiated the development of a lee side cyclone across eastern Colorado. As the day progresses, this low will consolidate its energy across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and slowly move northeastward. Southerly winds in advance of the low and on the western periphery of a surface high to our east will result in a southerly breeze today. This should allow highs to top out around 63 this afternoon despite partly cloudy skies. Thickening clouds and a persistent southerly breeze will keep temperatures unseasonably mild tonight with a low near 51. With some lift present overnight and increasing moisture, there is a very small chance of rain before sunrise, but I think we'll stay dry.

The big weather maker this weekend still appears to have some potential to produce severe weather across the region. As is the case with the large majority of cool season severe weather events, this event will have plenty of dynamics to work with, but the thermodynamics will be lacking. Still, it appears that enough instability will be present to warrant a threat of severe weather on Sunday.