Gustov Now a Category 4 Hurricane

This is one of the more remarkable rapid intensification phases I have ever seen. Not from a pressure standpoint but certainly from a wind standpoint. In 24 hours, the minimum pressure has fallen from 984 mb to 945 mb and maximum sustained winds have increased from 70 mph to 145 mph! That's one impressive feat.

Satellite images and reconnaissance data indicate the eye wall has become much more symmetric the last couple of hours, and that has allowed this secondary rapid intensification phase. It's tough to say if the current rapid intensification phase is over because Gustav will soon be interacting with the Isle of Youth and Cuba later today. It's still almost a certainty that Gustav will be stronger this afternoon and could be near Category 5 intensity when it crosses the western tip of Cuba. Unfortunately, Cuba will have very little impact on Gustav and may only weaken the winds by 5-10 mph at the most.

Once in the Gulf of Mexico later tonight, Gustav will either re-acquire or acquire Category 5 status fairly quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gustav become a very powerful Category 5 hurricane with winds up to 170 mph at some point in its life. Even that could be somewhat conservative. I don't think Gustav will be able to sustain that intensity for very long, and I don't think Gustav will be a Category 5 at landfall. Still, it is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. I'll have another update later this afternoon.