Cuba slightly weakened Gustav as it crossed over the western tip earlier this evening. However, Gustav is back over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and should re-intensify again shortly. However, wind shear is quite high just to the north of Gustav and may limit significant strengthening until the shear relaxes.
Model guidance has now clustered on an idea of a landfall in south-central or Southeast Louisiana. I have elected to shift my track a bit further east due to the unexpected right of track path Gustav took for much of today and the model agreement. I still feel that the ridge will push Gustav more to the left close to landfall, but I have to include the track today in my ideas. Therefore, I now expect Gustav to make landfall on Monday as a Category 4 hurricane at Marsh Island, LA. More thoughts tomorrow.
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