Where and How Strong?

Those are going to be the main questions when "Fay" is upgraded which is likely to happen this afternoon. Those are both excellent questions, and I'll try provide my thoughts on the track and intensity. Overnight, the center tried to reorganized itself near the strongest convection, and it even appeared that the center reformed slightly to the southwest overnight. Currently, the main center of "Fay", judging by radar, appears to be approaching the western tip of the Dominican Republic. If anything, you can even argue that the system has take a slightly south of west jog in the last few hours.

Given the placement of the trough off the East Coast, I'm somewhat surprised that the system as a whole has move entirely westward. The NHC's sea surface analysis suggests that the subtropical ridge has still not been breached, but that should occur once "Fay" passes Hispaniola. At that time, "Fay" should begin to turn more WNW. Model guidance is in excellent agreement with this track, and "Fay" will probably cross over the hilly terrain of Western Cuba. Once over western Cuba, the eastern U.S. trough is still forecast to be in place. This will cause "Fay" to turn NW and emerge over the Florida Straits by early Monday. I'm thinking that "Fay" will spend a longer residence time over Cuba as suggested by the 12Z Canadian, 00Z NOGAPS, and 12Z GFS (though not quite as far south).

Once "Fay" emerges over the Florida Straits, it should continue to move NW along the western periphery of the subtropical high. The large ridge that I was originally thinking would turn the system back west appears like it will arrive too late. At this point, I'm leaning toward the solution that "Fay" will be approaching the Keys and South Florida Tuesday evening. Shortly after landfall, the system should begin to move northward and move through Florida while the new ridge builds in.

Another interesting idea is what happens to "Fay" after landfall. When the ridge does build in, it's a real possibility that "Fay" could move in the Gulf of Mexico. I don't want to get real specific at this point, but this is certainly a possibility.

The track that I am leaning towards at this point would seem to be "good" for Florida. A longer residence time over the higher elevations of Hispaniola and Cuba will keep "Fay" from strengthening. Only when it moves over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits will "Fay" be able to strengthen. If this occurs, it shouldn't have a very long period over water. Still, the oceanic heat content between Cuba and Florida is quite high with SSTs between 87 F and 89F and tropical cyclone heat potential values around 80 kJ cm-2. "Fay" will also move over the Loop Current and this will only serve to add to the high thermodynamic state of the ocean. Unquestionably, the thermodynamic state of the ocean supports rapid intensification once "Fay" does emerge back over water.

While current wind shear is very low over "Fay", shear is forecast to increase slightly as it approaches Florida. However, if the 12Z NAM is correct, a jet streak to the north could actually provide an enhanced outflow channel and help serve for rapid intensification. Even if this doesn't occur, wind shear will likely be between 10-15 knots near landfall. This is still supportive of intensification but may limit the rapid intensification potential. Given the data I have reviewed, I think that "Fay" will make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in South Florida.

My forecast is based on current data and trends with the system. If there are significant changes to the current track of "Fay" my forecast is likely to change. I'll have another post when "Fay" is actually named.