Gustav Thoughts

Residents along the northern Gulf Coast can thank Cuba for severely disrupting Hurricane Gustav. The powerful hurricane's core was disrupted as it passed over the very small strip of land in western Cuba. That small strip of land was enough to weaken the core and allow wind shear to tilt the eye. Remember that hurricanes are warm core and want to keep their eye as vertical as possible to achieve maximum efficiency. Tilted eyes caused by wind shear typically prevents strengthening. Well-defined and major hurricanes are more susceptible to core disruption when they move across land than weaker tropical cyclones. Furthermore, it typically takes 24-48 hours for the core of major hurricanes to become re-established after they move over land and back into water. Weaker tropical cyclones often keep their core intact as they pass over land, but it may only take 12 hours for some weak cyclones to fully recover their core.

Two excellent examples to compare are Gustav and Katrina. Gustav was a well-organized Category 4 hurricane when it moved over Cuba early Saturday afternoon. After its passage and subsequent movement into the Gulf of Mexico, the core was severely disrupted until late Sunday night. In this case, it took nearly 36 hours for Gustav to re-establish its core, and when it did, it wasn't in an environment favorable for significant intensification. Katrina, on the other hand, made its first landfall in South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. Since it didn't have a mature core, it wasn't severely impacted as it moved over land. Once it emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, it quickly re-intensified into a hurricane.

I like to compare this concept to football players. Think of a big offensive lineman as a mature hurricane with a well-defined core and a small wide receiver as a weak tropical storm or hurricane with a developing core. Now let's introduce a tackler to serve as a landmass. If the wide receiver is tackled, he will get back up rather quickly. On the other hand, it's going to take a little while longer for the big offensive lineman to pick himself up after he is tackled.

Again, we can be very thankful that Cuba saved the Gulf Coast from a potential Category 4 hurricane. I'll have an update later today on Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.