Sunday, August 31, 2008
Gustav's Last Hurrah
Cuba inflicted more of a beating on Gustav than I thought which is excellent news for Louisiana. However, satellite images along with reconnaissance data indicate that Gustav is becoming better organized late this afternoon. The pressure has dropped about 5 mb since this morning and is now down to 957 mb. The corresponding increase in wind speed will likely occur later tonight as the wind speed usually lags the pressure drop by several hours. I still think Louisiana takes a battering from Gustav but not quite as bad as I originally was forecasting. Regardless, I expect Gustav to be very close to Category 4 status when it makes landfall tomorrow morning. I still wouldn't rule out Gustav becoming a strong Category 4 hurricane if it develops a circular eye and the convection becomes more symmetric. I'll have a big update later this evening
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2 comments:
Well, I think my theory of Cuba possibly disrupting the eye is occuring. The eye looks like it is starting to get its act together, the pressure is dropping (sp), and the wind will catch up in a few hours. This doesn't look good.
Add on the fact that when Gustav was a Cat 4 it was in a moderate shear environment, but the eyewall was protecting the storm from this shear. The storm is basically in the same moderate shear environment. If the eyewall develops, it should easily be able to gain strength and maintain it until it reaches landfall. I am sure it will be a Cat 3...but a Cat 4 is not out of the realm of possibilities right now.
As of the 1900 Advisory and position, the same NW path is still occurring with the pressure falling 5MB in three hours. The good news? Gustav hasn't strenghtned. The bad news is, the sonde was dropped just as he was re-forming convection in the central core of the storm, so it may not be reflected just yet. The next advisory may in fact pick up on this and intensift it to 4 storm. Even though he's well out at sea, Gulfport (KGPT) has already picked up 0.28" of rainfall and included a 28kt peak wind remark. New Orleans could easily become Atlantis if he decides to stall for any length of time. Another thing of note is how the water will be displaced. With a landfall to the west of the city, the surface wind should have a strong easterly component to it, which would take the Gulf water from the Mississippi shore and literally smash it into Louisiana. It's bad enough that the majority of New Orleans lies below sea level, but imagine some 70kts or higher wind waves crashing your way and there's nothing significant to stop it. Hopefully, the residents have taken precautionary measures and have left the city, or at worst, headed for the highest ground in or around the city. I really do hope he weakens considerably before making landfall, or this could easily be another costly disaster in U.S. history.
Jason M. McClish, SSgt, USAF
Student of Justyn's, MSU
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