Ike Update

The visual presentation of Ike continues to become better defined this evening with a distinct eye wall beginning to form. The minimum pressure continues to drop fairly quickly this evening, and the latest recon data indicates the extrapolated pressure is now down to 940.5 mb -- that's a drop of 6 mb in the last few hours. Typically, there is about a 6-12 hour lag in the pressure drop and the wind speed increase. With that said, expect Ike to be a major hurricane later tonight and possibly near Category 4 intensity tomorrow morning.


Wind shear remains moderate (10-15 knots) around Ike, but the ambient environment has considerably moistened. Therefore, wind shear is the only impediment to rapid intensification at this point. However, if the inner core can resist the wind shear, it's possible Ike could undergo a rapid intensification period relatively soon. I still think this will hold off until tomorrow morning when a strong ridge becomes entrenched over the hurricane. At that time, Ike could explode into a Category 5 hurricane at some point within the next 48 hours.

LDCT's Greg Nordstrom, Jared Allen, and Michael Haynes are en route to Galveston, TX. They should be there tomorrow morning, and I'll provide updates when I hear from them.