Status Quo

Ike has maintained its structure and intensity for a good part of today. The pressure has risen to 954 mb, but maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph. Over the last 24 hours, the wind speeds reported by the recon plane have slowly risen and this may be a sign that the winds are slowly trying to catch up with the pressure drop. Additionally, recent satellite imagery suggests that Ike may slowly be getting stronger with deep convection beginning to develop around the southern eye wall and to the northeast of the center. Time will tell, but this may be the beginning of an intensification phase. If the deep convection can sustain itself, we will likely see Ike deepen overnight.


Ike continues to move WNW along the southern periphery of an upper-level ridge, and subsidence associated with this ridge has limited deep convection on the western half of Ike. Over the next 24 hours, this ridge should move eastward and Ike should be on the southwest side of the ridge. This may provide an enhanced outflow channel and may enable Ike to develop sustained convection on its western side.

The two intensity-related issues I discussed earlier today were the double eye wall structure and the expanded wind field. The double eye wall structure has dissipated, and Ike now only has the small eye wall (~9 miles wide) remaining. This eliminates one impediment to significant strengthening but others remain. Wind shear and dry air are still negative factors for intensification. However, the main issue still revolves around the broad wind field that resulted when Ike expanded in size yesterday. It remains to be seen whether Ike can pull itself together and tighten its pressure gradient before landfall. There is some speculation that as Ike moves closer to the coast, the land may act to locally "squeeze" the hurricane together and tighten the pressure gradient. This is actually common with hurricanes that make landfall at a 90 degree angle to the coast. If this occurs, the winds could spike very briefly as Ike moves ashore.

Greg Nordstrom, Jared Allen, and Michael Haynes are still in Galveston this evening. The gracious staff at the Holiday Inn provided them with three rooms, shelter, and meals as long as they need. If you travel anytime in the future, be sure to give Holiday Inn some business. I have only had excellent service provided to me when I needed data in crucial storm chasing situations. They have always come up clutch so big props to Holiday Inn! The three amigos scouted out the area today and plan to ride out Ike on the island. I'll have another update in the morning with potentially new thoughts on intensity.