Ike Continues Churning in Gulf

Hurricane Ike continues to look impressive this morning on satellite imagery with tight banding and good outflow. Most Texas residents probably are waking up this morning wondering why the rush to evacuate for a 100 mph hurricane? Don't focus on the wind, but instead, look at the pressure. I do note the latest recon data indicates the pressure has risen another millibar to 946 mb. However, that's still a very low pressure and certainly supports a strong Category 3 hurricane.


Why is this not a Category 3 then? Unfortunately, I have a limited understanding of hurricane and eye dynamics, but it appears that is what's currently controlling the hurricane. Recon data indicates that two eye walls are present. The smaller eye is about 9 miles wide and the larger eye is about 48 miles wide. Until the hurricane can concentrate itself into one eye, there won't be much strengthening that takes place. In fact, the hurricane may actually weaken some until one eye becomes dominant. In eye wall replacement cycles, the larger eye is usually the one that becomes dominant. Again, don't let this lull you into a false sense of security thinking that the competing eye walls will destroy the hurricane. It won't. When, not if, a dominant eye does become established within Ike, look for a steady amount of strengthening to take place. This will likely occur later this afternoon or tonight.

Another issue with the low central pressure not corresponding to the winds has to do with the actual size of Ike. When Ike emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, it really increased considerably in size. What this did was to space the isobars further apart. Although the pressure is low in the center, the isobars were spread further apart when Ike expanded. This meant that the wind speed could not increase appreciably. Remember from last week when Ike exploded from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane within a matter of hours? It was a very small storm at that time and the isobars were packed much more closely together, and this is why there was a tremendous increase in wind speed. If Ike can "pull" itself back together to be more compact, the wind speeds will ramp up very quickly. It's possible this could also occur before landfall.

Again, don't be lulled into a false sense of security. Even though Ike is a Category 2 hurricane, the pressure dictates that this is potentially a strong Category 3 hurricane when these issues are resolved.

I have no changes to my thoughts on the intensity or track at this time. I'm still thinking Ike makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Indianola, TX. However, if Ike doesn't pull itself together, expect a Category 3 at landfall.

Greg Nordstrom and crew are in Galveston, TX this morning and are planning to scout out the area today. I'll have an update from them later today.