Threat #1 -- Hanna

I've got new thoughts on Hanna this morning, and if you've seen the water vapor imagery, you'll understand why. A vast area of continental air has infiltrated the center of Hanna and has completely disrupted the convection. Unless the ambient environment around Hanna moistens considerably, I don't think it will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. I do think that the environment will moisten over the next 24 hours, but I've lowered my intensity down to a strengthening Category 1 hurricane (80-85 mph winds) at landfall. My landfall idea has still not changed with a projected landfall between Wilmington and Morehead City, NC on Saturday.


I'll have another update later today focusing on the larger threat that looms -- Hurricane Ike. My gut feeling is that Ike will target South Carolina, but I'll be doing a lot of analysis today to get a better feel for the track.