Severe Weather Potential

Currently: A strong shortwave that was over the Desert Southwest this morning is now moving across West Texas. This shortwave has triggered the formation of an area of low pressure that is situated across Central Kansas. Extending northeast from the low is a warm front and a cold front extends southwest from the low pressure. In the warm sector ahead of the cold front and upper air shortwave, showers and thunderstorms broke out earlier this evening and are now affecting Oklahoma and Texas. These storms should increase in coverage and intensity in the soupier air mass of North Texas later this evening as they move eastward.

Closer to home, high clouds blanket the sky tonight and temperatures have only dropped into the lower 50s with a strong southeast wind. Increasing lower level moisture is evident in the latest infrared satellite images that show an extensive low stratus deck to our west. Dew points have also risen into the 60s over Southeast Texas with lower 50s up to the I-20 corridor.

Overnight: With clouds continuing to increase, strong southeast winds, and dew points climbing, don't look for temperatures to drop off much at all tonight. In fact, we may hover around 50 for most of the night. We should remain dry for most of the night, but with warm air advection and a weak shortwave approaching the area, there is a slight possibility that a few showers could develop late tonight. However, a strong cap will likely keep most showers very isolated in nature A more organized complex of storms will continue to develop and increase in intensity back in North Texas overnight and should be located in Western Mississippi near sunrise.

Tuesday Morning: Skies should be cloudy, but temperatures and dew points will increase after sunrise. Temperatures should be in the upper 50s with dew points in the lower 50s by late tomorrow morning. This should allow the line of storms in Western Mississippi to slowly intensify as the morning progresses. This activity may approach the Starkville area by the late morning hours. Outside of the rain and thunderstorms, south southeast winds will be rather strong tomorrow as the low level winds increase substantially through the day. In fact, 45 mph winds will be located just 1,000 feet above the surface tomorrow morning. I don't think we'll be able to mix these down to the surface, but wind gusts up to 25 mph could occur during the morning hours.

Tuesday Afternoon: Look for the line of showers and thunderstorms to continue moving through the area early tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s and dew points will reach the upper 50s by the early afternoon hours. I'm not expecting severe weather during this time frame for our area due to limited instability.

However, this will be a period of interest for areas in Southwest Mississippi. A lead shortwave will pass through this area during the morning hours and will likely create subsidence in its wake. If the subsidence is minimal, this could set the stage for a few supercells to develop across Southwest Mississippi by the afternoon where instability will be a little higher. The supercells would pose a heightened risk for tornadoes given the strength of the low-level shear forecast (0-1 km shear > 20 m s-1). This threat should be confined south of I-20.

Tuesday Night: Temperatures will actually rise through the evening as the storm system approaches and should top out around 65 before midnight. Dew points will also continue to rise into the lower 60s ahead of the main cold front. With our temperature and moisture increasing in the lower levels, heights will fall as the main trough approaches. This will allow instability to increase ahead of the cold front Tuesday night and set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms. Wind fields really strengthen again tomorrow night, and the thunderstorms may be able to transport these strong winds to the surface. I think damaging winds are the most likely threat for our area, but isolated tornadoes are certainly possible given the strong low level shear forecast. However, these storms will be in a line as opposed to isolated supercells. Regardless, with these cool season events, it doesn't take a lot of instability to create some big problems. The main threat of severe weather in the Starkville area will likely occur between 9 p.m. and midnight.

Rain and storms could continue through 4 a.m. when the cold front passes. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 50s and into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon behind the front. Definitely bring a coat to work or school on Wednesday!

I'll have much more on the severe weather threat tomorrow, but please keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night. Given the threat of a overnight severe weather event, it wouldn't be a bad idea to visit Wal-Mart or Radio Shack and pick up a weather radio. It's a great early family Christmas gift!