Warmer, Stormy

A strong cold front will pass through the state today and bring a good soaking rain and severe thunderstorms to many locations. The sun has made a brief appearance at times this morning, but most of the day should remain cloudy, but areas south of Starkville may see more sunshine throughout the day. An ongoing round of showers and thunderstorms that formed in Texas and Oklahoma is affecting a good part of Northern Mississippi, including the Starkville area. This rain should end after 9 a.m. and we may see a break until the afternoon. Temperatures should begin to rise after the rain exits the area and we'll likely make it up to 67 this afternoon. Outside of the rain and storms, it will also be breezy today with wind gusts over 30 mph at times!

The big show will hold off until tonight as the cold front approaches. Instability and wind shear will both be plenty high to support a cool season severe weather event. In fact, newest model data indicates slightly higher instability than previously expected. I still think damaging winds will be our biggest threat, but the higher degree of instability does slightly increase the potential for isolated tornadoes in our area. However, the linear nature of the storms tonight will probably offset the higher instability. Regardless, damaging winds are a distinct possibility with 50 knot winds located 2,000 feet above the surface, and it won't be very difficult to transport these higher winds down to the surface. The rain should end after frontal passage around 4 a.m. and temperatures will begin to drop. Temperatures should be in the mid 50s by sunrise but falling quickly into the 40s by the middle morning hours.

Please stay close to a source of weather information this evening. I'll have another update today, but for a more detailed severe weather discussion, see last evening's post.