Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Morning Storms, Afternoon Clearing

I always say there's no easier way to bust a forecast than to not accurately forecast cloud cover. That was the case yesterday as clouds kept the high temperature from reaching its potential. On the other hand, clouds and gusty south winds have caused the muggy feeling temperatures this morning. A small cluster of showers is currently moving through the area, but the main line of storms associated with the cold front is currently located over Western Mississippi. This line has significantly weakened overnight as it has encountered a more stable air mass. However, as the morning progresses, this line could begin to strengthen some as it encounters slightly more unstable air. I don't think severe weather is a major concern, but these storms could easily transport strong boundary layer winds to the surface. An isolated tornado remains possible, but the better chance for that will probably be in Alabama. I look for the line of storms to move through by 11 a.m. today, and then we will clear out by mid afternoon.

The temperature is tricky to forecast because any break in the clouds this morning could quickly cause the temperature to jump. Judging by satellite imagery, we could see brief glimpses of the sun this morning before the storms move through so I'll forecast a high of 68. Skies will be clear tonight and we should be much colder with the frontal passage. We will drop to 41 by tomorrow morning.

**Sad situation last night as a large, strong tornado plowed through the town of Lone Grove, Oklahoma. The death toll has risen to 15 and could be higher as officials assess the damage.

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