Pleasant Halloween

I'm running out of headlines to describe the string of nice weather days we've had this month. Cool start to the morning again with temperatures running in the upper 30s. Deep mixing yesterday prevented us from tapping the warmer temperatures just above the surface and we only topped out at 66. We should mix a little higher today but not enough to support lower 70s for highs. I'll undercut guidance and the NWS and forecast a high near 70 today. If you're headed out for trick-or-treating, temperatures will be around 57 at 7 p.m. but dropping into the upper 40s by 10 p.m.

Tomorrow morning will be another cool one with lows in the upper 30s. The weekend looks pleasant with full sunshine and highs in the 70s. With a poor slate of big college football games this weekend, it might be a great time for outdoor activities. A big trough is poised to slam onshore early next week and will bring a return to active weather. Severe weather is certainly possible to our west, and recent model trends with a more southerly storm track suggest we may deal with some storms at the end of next week.

Sunny, Warming Continues

Another cool start to the morning, but we managed to stay above freezing overnight as temperatures hovered near 34 F. Our weather will become even less influenced by the deep trough that brought us this cool weather, and in fact, we may actually be underneath a shortwave ridge later this afternoon. This will allow the warming trend to continue with highs topping out in the lower 70s this afternoon. The warming trend will also carry over into the evening as morning lows tomorrow will be in the upper 30s.

Our weather will remain dry with mild days and cool nights for the next several days. A big trough moves onshore of the Western U.S. over the weekend and will eject into the Southern Plains early next week. This trough will probably bring us our next rain chances possibly by the middle of next week. This trough could also bring a chance of severe weather out west next week. Needless to say, next week should be a more interesting weather week.

Warming Trend Begins

It's been another chilly start to the day as the morning low was 28, and the NWS' freeze warning certainly verified. In fact, it was a hard freeze as we have currently been at or below freezing for close to 6 hours! A nice warming trend will begin today as the deep trough is sliding off to the east. We're still influenced by northwest flow aloft from the backside of the trough so we won't see a heat wave by any means, but temperatures will be a bit warmer today. With warmer 850 mb temperatures (6-8 C), we could easily top out in the mid 60s, and I'll go above guidance and the NWS with a high of 65 today. Tonight will be another chilly one, and with clear skies and light winds, we could get be near freezing again tomorrow morning.

The warming trend continues tomorrow with temperatures back near 70. There's no immediate sign of a change to cold weather for the next few days. In fact, temperatures will likely remain very pleasant through the weekend and no sign of rain until next week.

Freezing Warning

The NWS has issued a freeze warning for tonight as temperatures are expected to be under freezing for a few hours. With clear skies, light winds, and dry air in place, low temperatures will likely be in the upper 20s tomorrow morning. It wouldn't be a bad idea to bring any sensitive vegetation and pets inside tonight. Your pets will definitely appreciate it!

Freeze Warning Text

Cool Day, Freeze Likely Tonight

I expected our first freeze of the night to be Wednesday morning, but temperatures fell to 30 this morning at Golden Triangle Airport under clear skies and calm winds. I expected the winds to stay up a bit more and keep us above freezing. Nonetheless, temperatures are chilly to start off this morning and it's going to be another cool day as a deep trough is anchored over the Southeast. Even with strong sunshine, we may not get above 56 today with continued cold air advection. Everything will be set up for a stronger freeze tonight with clear skies and calm winds again. Temperatures tomorrow morning could be in the upper 20s when you wake up.

A warming trend begins tomorrow as the deep trough shifts to the east and warm air advection begins. While we'll still be under the influence of the trough, don't expect a major warm up by any means. Still, highs tomorrow will be in the mid 60s. Temperatures continue to warm through the end of the week as we become less influenced by a trough and more influenced by a ridge.

Sunny, Much Cooler

This morning's weather maps show that a very deep trough is poised to dig deep into the Southeast U.S. today and will bring a reinforcing shot of Canadian air. The core of the cold air is forecast to be very close to us and will allow for a few cool days and cold nights. It will be very tough to find a cloud in the sky today, but with strong cold air advection, we will barely reach the lower 60s this afternoon. With the cold air firmly in place by tonight, clear skies, and light winds, we will easily see our coldest night of the season so far. I think winds stay up just enough to keep us from a freeze, but a frost is certainly possible in the morning with temperatures around 34. Tomorrow will be coldest day this week as highs won't make it out of the 50s and we could be setting up for our first freeze Wednesday morning. If you don't like cold weather, no worries because a sprawling ridge looks to take shape by the end of the week and promises a return to warmer weather.

SEC Football Forecasts

This will be a new weekly feature that will run through the end of the season. Enjoy!

Early Showers, Clearing This Afternoon

The deep trough that dug into the Central Plains became cut-off and is stalled to the northwest of us. Even though the main upper air system stalled, it easily drove a cold front through the area overnight. Rainfall amounts were lighter (0.13" at MSU) than I expected because a large complex of thunderstorms developed to our south in the Gulf of Mexico and cut-off the inflow into the line of rain along the cold front yesterday. Heavier amounts were found in Northern Mississippi, but those amounts were even less than I expected.

It's a chilly, raw morning to start off the day with showers currently falling around the county. This rain should exit the area by 9:00, but clouds should hang tough for most of the day. The back edge of the clouds is still in Eastern Arkansas, but we could see the sun later this afternoon. This makes for a tricky forecast with this timing. If the sun comes out in the early afternoon, I think we might be able to make it up in the mid 60s, especially with some warmer temperatures aloft. However, I think the clouds hang on through mid-afternoon and we only manage to top out in the lower 60s. When you wake up tomorrow, morning temperatures will be cool with lows around 44.

The weekend looks perfect, but I recommend staying inside on Saturday and watching some big time college football games. If you do any outdoor activities, highs will be in the 70s and morning lows will be in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday. I still have a high degree of confidence that we turn cooler next week, but the models are now in agreement on keeping the coldest air to our east. If this is true, it will be cooler next week but highs will likely be in the 60s rather than the 50s. We probably will also stay above freezing at night, but if the colder air mass is further west, temperatures will be even colder.

SEC Football Forecasts

Beginning tomorrow, video forecasts for all the weekend's SEC games will be a new feature on my blog. Check back tomorrow morning for it!

In the meantime, here's a quick forecast for the Auburn vs. West Virginia game tonight in Morgantown. High clouds will increase through the evening but mostly clear skies should prevail. It should be a dry but chilly non-conference showdown with kickoff temperatures in the upper 40s but falling into lower 40s by the 4th quarter.

Showers, Turning Cooler

Warm air advection and isentropic upglide aided in the development of clouds and showers that occurred early this morning. This also occurred just ahead of a cold front that is currently located along the Mississippi River. Showers are possible throughout the day, but the better chance of rain will arrive later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. With some cold air aloft, a thunderstorm is even possible tonight as there will be marginal elevated instability present. I'm not expecting big problems with severe weather, but a rumble or two of thunder is possible. This system is much stronger than the one that moved through last week, so expect rainfall amounts to be much heavier. I think amounts close to one inch are possible with even heavier amounts possible north of Starkville. Temperatures are a tough forecast today with clouds and showers around. If there is a prolonged break between rain this morning and this afternoon, I think we'll top out in the mid 60s. If we have a shorter break between rain, we'll probably stay in the lower 60s. I'm leaning toward mid 60s given the gap between the showers in Central Mississippi and East Mississippi and the slow eastward progession of the rain to the west of Starkville.

The cold front comes sweeping through tonight and showers and possibly a thunderstorm will become more likely at this time. Rain is still possible behind the cold front and will linger through Friday morning. When you wake up tomorrow, temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s. I think clouds hang tough tomorrow in the wake of the cold front and keep temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 tomorrow.

We won't receive a prolonged period of cold weather due to the trough becoming cut-off. However, next week looks to promise a sharper change to cold weather as a deep trough and Canadian cold front approach the area. There is excellent model and ensemble support for this cold snap so I feel pretty confident that it turns cold. If this verifies, we could have the potential for our first freeze and highs in the 50s. Should feel much more like fall next week!

Plentiful Sunshine, Warmer

A very strong trough is digging into the central part of the country and will bring severe weather to Texas and Oklahoma in the warm sector and blizzard conditions to Kansas and Nebraska in the cold sector. Quite a dynamic storm system, but that is common during transition seasons as the troughs become shorter in wavelength and more amplified.

Our weather won't be impacted by the powerful storm system until Thursday and possibly Friday now. Other than a few passing clouds today, we should have another beautiful fall day with pleasant but mild temperatures. It didn't get quite as warm as I expected yesterday because 850 mb temperatures were overdone by the models. With 850 mb temperatures forecast to be a bit warmer today, I'm still undercutting the models but expecting highs in the mid 70s. When you wake up tomorrow morning, it should be another cool morning with temperatures in the lower 50s.

Big changes are due in here tomorrow and Friday as the powerful trough and associated cold front approach the area. Models continue to slow the progression of the system down and our best rain chances may come on Friday now. Either way, both days look to be much cooler with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Gotta love fall!

Slightly Warmer

Our zonal flow aloft will gradually back to the southwest later today in response to a digging trough in the Rockies. This will place our area under the influence of a shortwave ridge which will increase low level temperatures today. You'll notice this later today as highs will be a bit warmer than the past few days. Expect afternoon temperatures near 77 F today with a few high clouds possible this evening. Our surface winds will also begin to switch to the southeast and will help increase our moisture overnight. Therefore, expect a warmer morning tomorrow with temperatures near 50 F when you wake up.

The digging trough in the Central Plains will move our way by Thursday and will drag a cold front through the area. New model guidance has shifted the best rain chances to Thursday, and it still looks like a good cool down behind the front with highs in the 60s possible later this week!

Perfect Fall Day

I don't know about you, but the weather we've had for the past couple of days has been perfect. Nights have been cool and afternoons have been pleasant, and the same will be true today after starting out in the lower 40s for most areas. Areas of fog that are present this morning will rapidly disappear by 9 a.m., and we should be in store for a sunny day. Look for afternoon highs today to be near 73 and morning lows tomorrow in the mid 40s.

We were under the influence of a deep trough over the weekend that was responsible for the cool, fall-like weather. This morning, however, the trough has exited the U.S., and our flow aloft has become more zonal in nature. What will this mean for our weather? Moderating temperatures for the next couple of days, but another trough will deepen across the Plains tomorrow. This trough will swing a cold front through the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning and will give us a better shot at rain than last week. The bigger story is that this front also promises to bring us our coolest weather of the season by the end of the week.

Clouds and Sprinkles Early, Sunny and Cooler Later

If you were outside between 8 and 9 p.m. last night, you certainly felt the cold front come sweeping through Starkville. Accompanied by gusty winds, the temperature fell quickly into the 60s and now remains in the upper 50s this morning under cloudy skies. Even behind the front, rain fell to just about every location around the area overnight, but amounts were generally light. In fact, only 0.10" of rain fell for the entire event at MSU, and that's to be expected with a weakening front. Winston and Noxubee Counties, on the other hand, received slightly higher totals but still under 0.50".

Skies should remain cloudy through most of the morning and a few sprinkles are even possible. The back edge of the clouds is currently over Northwest Mississippi, and this should arrive in our area early this afternoon. Skies should become mostly sunny by 2 p.m. today, and with sunshine, we should manage to top out near 70.

A trough deepens over our area tonight and will send a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air into the area for the weekend. When you wake up tomorrow morning, you'll definitely be able to see your breath outside with a low in the mid to upper 40s. The weekend promises to be beautiful with slightly warming highs but cool, crisp mornings. This is a great weekend for a little yardwork and footbal!

Increasing Clouds and Rain

Out with the ridge and high pressure, in with the trough and cold front. That sums up the upper air and surface weather pattern this morning. Our strong ridge that was in place for nearly a week has broken down and shifted to the east as a trough and associated weakening cold front move toward the state. This cold front is located just west of the Mississippi River this morning, and southerly winds ahead of the front will pump additional moisture into the area today with dew points reaching the upper 60s this afternoon. This normally would result in a good soaking rain, but with the front weakening as it moves through our area, I'm not expecting heavy rainfall totals with this system. Still, up to 0.4" are possible today through Friday morning. Showers are possible this morning, but the better rain chances will hold off until tonight as the cold front moves through. With showers and mostly cloudy skies around today, highs won't get too warm, but I think we can make it into the upper 70s at some point this afternoon.


Tomorrow promises to be rather cool with highs in the lower 70s. We'll see a reinforcing shot of colder and drier air over the weekend and will likely see lows in the 40s!

Warm But Changes On the Way

The strong ridge that has dominated our upper air pattern for several days will begin to break down today as a trough and associated cold front in the Central U.S. progresses eastward. However, our ridge will last just long enough to allow temperatures to spike upwards today. With 850 mb temperatures near 15 C, highs should top out near 85 F today. A surface high pressure system slides to the east of us today and will shift the winds to the southeast that will usher in more moisture into the state. This increase in moisture will be noticed at all levels in the troposphere and will likely result in increasing clouds later this afternoon. These clouds will thicken and lower as we move through the overnight hours and should keep temperatures tomorrow morning in the mid 60s.

A weakning cold front approaches the state tomorrow and will increase our ran chances. However, with the weakening nature of the front, I don't expect any severe weather or heavy rain. This front will bring a swift change in temperatures from Friday through the weekend. With highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s, it will certainly feel like fall!

Sun Returns, Warmer

There's a winter saying in Michigan, "Grey til May". I was beginning to wonder if that would hold true for Starkville as the last few days have been cloudy. The pesky upper low that was responsible for the cloudiness has since dissipated and will no longer affect our weather. The same song and dance in the upper air remains evident this morning as a ridge dominates the eastern third of the country and a trough lingers over the Desert Southwest. This means more warm and dry weather for us.

850 mb temperatures will be warm enough to support highs very close to 85 today, especially with full sunshine. Areas west of Starkville may be a degree or two warmer so it will be a warm one today. Overnight, we should have clear skies, light winds, and slightly drier air so lows will dip into the upper 50s. There is good model agreement that the ridge weakens tomorrow, but the trough ejecting out of the Southwest will weaken and move to the northeast. Still, this will drag a cold front toward our area on Thursday and bring us our first chance of rain in over a week.

Tropics and Weekend Snow Totals

The two tropical waves discussed last week developed. Nana strengthened southwest of the Cape Verde Islands over the weekend, but strong shear is quickly ending its chances for survival. Tropical Depression 15 formed this morning and could become Tropical Storm Omar tonight. Wind shear is still somewhat moderate and isn't expected to weaken much. Due to this, some very slight strengthening is possible, but I don't foresee significant strengthening. The GFDL and HWRF forecast T.D. 15 to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours, but I feel this is a bit unreasonable. Still, T.D. 15 could become a hurricane within a few days as shown by the NHC forecast. A weakness in the subtropical ridge will prevent this system from impacting the U.S., but it may bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico.


The big Western U.S. trough delivered snow as advertised to Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and the Dakotas. In fact, snowfall totals up to 48" were reported in the mountainous areas of Southern Montana! Check out the map above from NWS Riverton for snow totals in their CWA.

NWS Billings, MT Reports
NWS Bismarck, ND
NWS Riverton, WY

Mostly Cloudy, Warmer Today

The upper air pattern transitioned over the weekend as expected except for one minor fly in the ointment. The pesky upper low that moved through the area last week moved back to the west over the weekend and was responsible for the cloudy and cool conditions. I doubt too many people had complaints about that! The upper low has since weakened, but there is still enough low-level moisture to support mostly cloudy skies today.

The area is otherwise dominated by a strong ridge that extends well into the Great Lakes region along with a strong trough anchored over the Desert Southwest. This pattern will persist for the next few days before breaking down by the end of the week. Despite the fact that most of the day will be cloudy, highs should still manage to top out in the lower 80s. If clouds hang around into the overnight hours, morning lows will likely be in the mid 60s tomorrow. If there are less clouds, look for lows to bottom out in the lower 60s. Our next chance of rain doesn't appear to be until Friday.

Tropics and Winter Weather

TROPICS
Two waves of interest are in the Atlantic at this time. The first will be impacting the Lesser Antilles today, but it doesn't currently appear impressive. Wind shear is fairly high (~25 knots), and this may keep this wave from developing. However, a few of the models do develop this system, but they aren't aggressive with the strength. If the wave can survive until Sunday, there may be some chance for development. Regardless, it looks like this wave will likely be re-curve out to sea before impacting the U.S.


The more impressive wave is southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and this may develop into a named system over the weekend. The only negative factor inhibiting development is significant wind shear in the proximity of this wave. Until the shear relaxes, this wave will likely not develop quickly, if at all. However, shear is forecast to decrease over the weekend, and most model guidance does develop this into Nana. I don't think this will pose a threat to the U.S. and will re-curve harmlessly out to sea. Most of our late season threats come from development close to home rather than the long-track Cape Verde systems.


WINTER WEATHER
The strong Western U.S. trough is poised to eject into the Rockies over the weekend and will bring the season's first snow to parts of the Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas. The heaviest snow will likely be in the higher elevations and Montana. With most early season storms, this is not a deep polar air mass, but it's certainly cold enough to support a good snow event for these areas. Mountainous areas could receive over 2 feet of snow and some local totals outside higher terrain could exceed a foot! Not too shabby.


Montana Discussions
Wyoming Discussions
North Dakota Discussions
South Dakota Discussions

Check back for a severe weather discussion later today!

Foggy, Then Much Warmer

The country's weather pattern is changing quickly this morning as a trough is deepening over the Western U.S. and a ridge is building over the eastern half of the country. This pattern will continue through the weekend and means that it should be pleasant but warm.

Fog is present again this morning with leftover moisture and cool temperatures. Compared to yesterday, we don't have a stratus deck above the fog so this should dissipate rather quickly this morning with full sunshine by 9 a.m. I'm not buying the mid 80s the MOS guidance is suggesting because 850 mb temperatures don't support temperatures that warm. Lower 80s seem a bit more reasonable. Moisture will also be in the increase this evening and will likely keep Saturday morning temperatures near 60. If you're headed to the Vanderbilt game tomorrow, look for sunny skies with temperatures in the lower 80s. Our next chance of rain appears to be possible by the middle of next week.

I'll have a post later this morning looking at severe weather potential out west, snow in the northwest, and the tropics down south. Gotta love transition seasons!

Fog Early, Then Sun Returns

The upper air pattern over the U.S. remains fairly zonal except for the cut-off low in the Southeast, which will remain well east of our area. The zonal pattern won't last long because a very energetic system is moving across the Pacific and will cause a trough to dig into the Western U.S. later today. For the potential impacts of the deepening trough in the West, check out Ryan Aylward's blog. Over the course of the next few days, this deepening trough will also pump the ridge northward for the eastern half of the country. This will bring us a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.

Be careful on your morning commute to work or school this morning as fog covers the entire area. This fog should slowly dissipate within the next few hours, and sunshine will be the rule for the remainder of the day. Today should be a beautiful fall day, but temperatures will slowly begin an upward trend today. Highs this afternoon should be very close to 80, and tomorrow morning temperatures should be in the upper 50s.

**LATE MORNING UPDATE** Low clouds, fog, and mist have stubbornly hung around the area much longer than I anticipated. There are signs of this breaking up within the next couple of hours, but we may not get full clearing until after 3. Due to this, high temperatures may only reach the mid 70s today, but I doubt that will cause many complaints! If you live in Eupora or points west, it's been a beautiful, sunny day so far and highs should still top out in the upper 70s.

Cloudy, Cooler Today

An early fall cold front was just what the doctor ordered for parched areas around Starkville. 1.35" of rain fell yesterday and early this morning across Starkville with even heavier amounts up to 1.75" estimated in the western part of Oktibbeha County. The cold front is pushing east across Alabama and has taken all of the rain with it. While the rain has exited, clouds will still linger around for a good part of the day on the backside of the storm system. There may be a few breaks here and there, but most areas will remain cloudy until later tonight. With extensive cloud cover and cold air advection behind the front, highs will struggle to reach the mid 70s today. In fact, only areas that experience pockets of sunshine will flirt with mid 70s today. Otherwise, all other areas should top out in the lower 70s. Clouds will finally clear very early Thursday morning, and lows will drop into the mid 50s. Enjoy the temperatures today and tomorrow because we're headed back towards warmer weather by the weekend.

Tuesday Outlook

The long anticipated trough that moved onshore of the Western U.S. over the weekend is slowly moving into our area but also lifting off to the north. This is causing the energy to weaken, but there will still be plenty available for a cold front to tap the high moisture reservoir and produce rain and thunderstorms across the area today.

It's already been a rough ride early this morning for residents in Columbus as a severe thunderstorm produced structural and tree damage across the town. While I don't expect a big severe weather outbreak today, a few severe storms are possible with wind shear and marginal instability present. Probabilities of severe thunderstorms will increase if there is a prolonged period of sun this morning and afternoon. This may be more likely to our south and west where it appears that area will see the best combination of instability and shear. Regardless, given the tropical nature of the air mass over the area, showers and thunderstorms are likely at any point today. The best chance for rain and heavy rain will likely hold off until late tonight and early Wednesday morning as the cold front moves through.

Today will be mostly cloudy will a few peaks of sun possible this afternoon. Pack your umbrella with you because scattered showers and storms are possible at just about any point, but the heaviest activity will occur late tonight and early Wednesday morning. An isolated severe storm is possible in our area, but the best chances will be to our south and west. Temperatures are tricky because of the clouds and rain around the area. If we manage to get a few peaks of sun, highs could top out near 80, but if rain and clouds are around for most of the day, highs will only be in the mid 70s. When you wake up tomorrow, the low will be in the upper 60s, but showers may linger through late tomorrow morning.

If you're wondering whether this cold front will give us another taste of fall, the answer is not this time. This front is Pacific in nature meaning that temperatures will be moderated behind the front, but it will dry us out and allow for cool mornings again. I'll post an update later today if it looks like severe weather will become more possible.

Starkville Monday Outlook

This is going to be a new feature I'm going to write each day that will focus on the weather affecting Starkville and surrounding areas.

MONDAY
An Eastern U.S. trough that was responsible for our fall-like weather last week broke down over the weekend as a strong trough in the west moved onshore and amplified a ridge downstream over the Plains and Deep South. Consequently, our preview of of fall weather ended as morning lows and afternoon highs crept up over the weekend. This trend will continue today as will we be underneath an upper-level ridge, and warm low-level temperatures (~15 C) should have no problem being mixed to the surface.

Moisture will be limited again today as we remain are cut-off from the Gulf of Mexico, but winds will slowly turn more southeasterly early Tuesday morning. This slow wind shift is the direct result of a strong ridge in the Northeast U.S. that is being blocked from moving eastward.

Since moisture is limited, skies should be mostly sunny with a few high cirrus clouds possible this evening. Highs will top out in the mid 80s. Moisture increases overnight as winds turn to the southeast, and expect morning lows tomorrow be in the lower 60s for a change.

Rain chances will increase substantially tomorrow as the trough that moved onshore over the weekend approaches our area. The trough will be weakening and lifting northward, but there should be enough energy for a good chance of rain and thunderstorms. There is a chance of a severe storm or two with moderate wind shear and instability present tomorrow, but the risk of a big severe weather outbreak doesn't seem likely at this point.

Storms Next Week?

Computer model guidance indicates the possibility of rain and thunderstorms for parts of the Plains and the Southeast next week. The better chances for severe weather will likely remain to the west of Mississippi, but some strong storms aren't out of the question toward the middle part of next week as a cut-off low moves into the area. There are still considerable differences in the models to warrant a low confidence forecast for severe weather, but the pattern certainly suggests more active weather will return. It's tough to complain about the taste of fall we have experienced this week, but I will be happy to see lightning and hear thunder again!

A big storm system is poised to slam the Western U.S. over the weekend with heavy rain, strong winds, and the season's first snowfall for the Sierra Nevadas. Could be some interesting Pac-10 games tomorrow! I'll have much more this weekend with details about next week's storm system.