Morning Showers, Turning Much Colder

It's been a wet morning thus far, and additional showers will be possible through 10 a.m. The band of rain is associated with an eastward moving cold front that is currently just to our northwest. It appears that clouds will be tough to break for much of the day. With weak cold air advection behind the front and clouds hanging tough, highs today will be rather chilly. In fact, the temperature this morning will actually be warmer than it will be this afternoon. Look for temperatures to drop to near 50 late this morning, and then briefly spike rise to 52 late this afternoon. Northwest winds gusting over 20 mph at times will make temperatures feel even colder today. By this evening, skies should become mostly clear and winds will begin to subside due to decoupling and a lessening pressure gradient. As a result, lows tomorrow morning will be near 36. An active weather pattern will setup this week thanks to a subtropical jet stream. Tomorrow should be dry, but rain will return early Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure moves out of the Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of the midweek system, much colder air will grip the region Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. In fact, highs one of those days may not break 45!

Sunshine Returns, Warmer

Clouds broke up a lot earlier than I expected overnight, and I'm surprised the low only got to 36. We should enjoy a sunny day today as the cut off low continues to drift northeastward into the Great Lakes states and an area of high pressure dominates the region. This also means temperatures will be much warmer than the last couple of days but still on the cool side. Highs should be able to top out near 62. Light winds and clear skies should provide a good radiational cooling setup overnight. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 37.

Cloudy, Chilly

Amazingly, temperatures this morning are slightly cooler than temperatures yesterday afternoon. That's due in part to a persistent stratus deck that hung tough overnight. Forecasting when the stratus deck breaks up will be key to the forecast this today. Unfortunately, the cut off low responsible for the low clouds continues to spin across Missouri, and it will only drift slightly northward today. As a result, clouds should hang tough again today and keep temperatures on the chilly side again. Highs will top out around 53 this afternoon. The low clouds should begin to break up after midnight as some slightly drier air works its way into the area. I don't think skies will be completely clear or else we could be looking at a potential freeze. However, with a few lingering clouds overnight, lows should be able to drop near 37 tomorrow morning. Beginning early next week, an El Nino like pattern will set up, so a return to wet weather appears likely for the last week of November.

A.M. Sun, Cloudy/Cold/Drizzly This Afternoon

The cold front that brought rain yesterday evening has pushed well to our east. Strong cold air advection in the wake of the frontal passage will dominate the weather today. Although skies are temporarily clear, low clouds associated with the cut off low will return late this morning and this afternoon. A little sunshine this morning may allow temperatures to top out around 52 as opposed to holding in the 40s if a low cloud deck were present all day. However, it will feel raw by this afternoon with chilly temperatures, breezy winds, and even some patchy drizzle. I feel strongly low that low clouds will hang tough overnight, and this will prevent any chance of freezing temperatures. Still, it's going to feel quite cold with a few patches of drizzle early in the evening. Temperatures should be near 37 tomorrow morning.

Late Afternoon/Evening Showers, Warm

The dry streak ends today as a storm system approaches from the west. A line of showers and thunderstorms currently stretches from southeast Texas to southeast Missouri in advance of a cold front. Surface ridging in the Gulf of Mexico has prevented a strong return flow into this system, and this is resulting in minimal cloud cover in advance of the front. As a result, we should see mostly sunny skies this morning, but clouds will thicken more as we head throughout the afternoon hours. This should allow temperatures to top out around 72 this afternoon. The front will steadily push eastward today and should be located across western Mississippi by late this afternoon. At the same time, the upper level energy will become cut off from the jet stream. This combined with meager moisture ahead of the front will actually result in the line of showers weakening substantially over the course of the day. However, we will likely see the line push through our area after 4 p.m. and should exit to the east by 7 p.m. Rainfall amounts will be light with most communities seeing less than 0.25". The front will pass through our area after 8 p.m. with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s by 10 p.m. Clouds will hang tough overnight, but strong cold air advection will allow temperatures to drop near 42 tomorrow morning.

A Few High Clouds, Mild

It's a chilly start to the day with temperatures currently running in the upper 30s. The pesky cut off low that plagued our weather for the past couple of days will exert very little influence on our weather today. In fact, a shortwave ridge will build across the area throughout the day as another trough digs into the Four Corners. This should keep us dry, but a few cirrus clouds will pass overhead at times today. This will prevent temperatures from reaching their maximum potential, but highs should still top out around 69 this afternoon. Winds will veer around to the southeast tonight, which should increase dew points. I have a hard time believing skies are clear overnight with the amount of cirrus clouds to our west, but lows should be able to drop near 44 tomorrow morning.

The weekend weather looks great, especially Saturday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s. The game on Saturday night should be played under a few clouds with temperatures falling into the 50s throughout the course of the game. A few more clouds will be likely on Sunday with highs in the mid 70s. Our dry streak will come to an end late Tuesday or Wednesday as a cut off low swings a cold front toward the region.

Sunny, Pleasant

A few clouds moved through the area this morning and kept temperatures in the low to mid 40s. We remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft due to the cut-off low to our east. The models overestimated the strength of the cold air advection yesterday, which lead to highs topping out a little warmer than I expected. Once again, I think models may be a tad too cool today as a warm air advection regime will commence. Nonetheless, a cooler surface air mass did filter into the area overnight, and this should keep highs slightly cooler than yesterday. With sunny skies highs should top out near 67 this afternoon. A good radiational cooling setup will support some chilly temperatures tonight. However, I don't like going to aggressive with temperatures when warm air advection is occurring. Still, lows should be able to drop to near 39 tomorrow morning.

Sunny and Breezy

We took a glancing blow from Tropical Storm Ida yesterday as most locations received less than 0.5" of rain. That's a welcome relief as we've been deluged with over two feet of rain in the last couple of months. The other good news is that we're in store for another relatively dry weather pattern for the next several days. Aloft, we'll be under the influence of an upper level trough (the remnants of Ida) to our east, which will produce weak cold air advection aloft. At the surface, an area of high pressure to our west and north will produce northwesterly flow throughout the day. The combination of these two will result in sunny skies, gusty winds, and highs around 67. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph again today as a result of a strong pressure gradient. Skies will be clear this evening, but winds will stay up through the night. Therefore, lows tomorrow morning will be near 43.

Light Rain This Morning, Dry This Afternoon

Tropical Storm Ida made landfall just a short time ago near Dauphin Island, AL. A classic indication of a tropical system phasing with a mid-latitude system can been seen by analyzing the current radar image. These type of systems often have a well defined back edge to the precipitation shield, and this case is no exception. Starkville and Oktibbeha County will receive only a little in the way of rain from this system, but Columbus and especially places to the east have received and will receive heavy rain today.


Some off and on light rain and drizzle will likely continue for much of this morning, but we should dry out this afternoon as Ida begins to move eastward across the Florida Panhandle. Clouds should hang tough all day, and this will only allow temperatures to top out near 63. It will also be breezing with winds exceeding 20 mph at times throughout the day. I think we may clear after 9 p.m., but a few low clouds will develop early tomorrow morning. Lows should be able to drop near 49 tomorrow morning.

Rain Returns Overnight

The weather maps show a complex situation this morning with a weak upper level trough approaching the area and Hurricane Ida in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Over the course of the day, these two systems will start to become intertwined. One fly in the ointment is that no model is picking up on the showers around the Jackson area that are associated with the upper level disturbance. I think it's possible this disturbance could generate a few light showers across our area this afternoon. Regardless of whether it rains, skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day due to cirrus blow off from Ida, and highs should be able to top out near 68 this afternoon. An area of high pressure near the eastern shore of Virginia and Hurricane Ida will produce a strong pressure gradient, which will result in breezy conditions today. Some wind gusts could approach 15 mph this afternoon.

The forecast overnight is the tricky part. Ida should be approaching the Alabama/Florida coasts by sunrise tomorrow morning. On this path, the heaviest of rains will be remain to our south and east, but some rain from Ida will still work its way into the area after midnight. Winds will be even more breezy overnight than during the day with gusts up to 20 mph. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 56.

If Ida takes the track I expect or goes slightly further east, we'll get lucky with this system with only minimal rain amounts. However, if Ida shifts its track slightly westward, we'll be dealing with some heavy rain. If any changes occur, I'll update the forecast as needed.

Dry, Pleasant Weather Continues

Clear skies, calm winds, and dry air made for an excellent radiational cooling setup, and temperatures this morning are running in the mid to upper 30s. As the day progresses, a flat upper ridge will build across the region, which will result in continued dry and mild conditions. Skies will be sunny again today with highs topping out near 71. A surface high will slide off to our east by tonight, and winds will begin to veer to the southeast. This will increase dew points enough to keep lows in the 40s overnight. Still, another good radiational cooling setup will allow temperatures to drop near 42 tomorrow morning. The weekend looks great with a good supply of sunshine both days, although, there may be a few more clouds present on Sunday. Highs each day will be in the mid 70s. Our next chance of rain looks to arrive on Monday.

Sunny and Mild

The front that I was expecting to give us a reinforcing shot of drier air washed out before moving through our area. As a result, temperatures are running the mid 40s to start the day. Another great fall day is on tap with a good supply of sunshine and slightly warmer afternoon temperatures. Highs should be able to top out near 74 this afternoon. A slightly strong upper air disturbance will push a cold front through the area overnight. This front won't have much of an impact on sensible weather, and the atmosphere appears to be too dry for clouds to develop. Clear skies and light winds should allow temperatures to drop near 44 tomorrow morning.

Great Fall Day

Not a lot to mention on the weather maps this morning, but the primary item of interest is a cold front that is located north of Memphis. This front will push southward over the course of the day and should sweep through the area early this afternoon. There is even less moisture than expected with the front, so we should be in store for another sunny day. The front will bring in a drier supply of air and slightly cooler temperatures with highs topping out near 68. Winds will be breezy after the frontal passage this afternoon with some gusts exceeding 15 mph. Winds will subside tonight, and with clear skies and drier air in place, lows tomorrow morning should be able to dip down to 41.

Sunny and Pleasant

It's another cool start to the morning as high pressure remains entrenched over the region. West northwest flow aloft associated with a subtle trough will keep temperatures slightly below average again today. Skies will be sunny throughout the day, and this should allow highs to top out near 66 this afternoon. Clear skies will remain in place for most of this evening, but a reinforcing cold front will approach the area near sunrise tomorrow morning. This front will not have enough moisture for any precipitation, but it will have enough moisture to produce a few clouds after 4 a.m. These clouds should keep lows near 47 tomorrow morning.