It's already been a nasty morning with heavy rain around the area. We've received over 1.25" and heavy rain should continue for a couple of more hours. After that, things will begin to get interesting. First of all, temperatures have warmed a bit this morning, but they should begin to cool as an upper level low passes to our southeast. Models have trended a little bit warmer, but current observations do not support the warm solution offered by the NAM in particular. In fact, heavy snow is being reported at Jackson with a temperature of 33. This is directly attributed to dynamic cooling that is occurring in close proximity to the upper low.
The key to our forecast will be the track of the upper low. It appears that it will be close enough to our area for wet snow to begin falling late this morning and very early afternoon. It will probably take an hour or less of heavy snow for a thin layer to stick to the warm, wet ground. After it does so, additional snow should have no problem accumulating on grassy and elevated surfaces. The heavy band of snow looks like it may stay just to our south and keep the heavier snow in places like Philadelphia and Meridian. Those areas could see over 5" of snow! In our area, I feel confident that we will see snow, but I am lowering my total to 1" for Starkville. The snow should end after 5 p.m. I'll have another update later today.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Winter Weather Threat
Not even a day removed from a severe weather episode, our area will be the target of a storm system poised to bring winter weather tomorrow. The synoptic setup for this event is not complex at all. An upper level low over southeast Texas and a coupled jet structure has initiated the development of a surface low pressure center just south of Mobile Bay. This surface low is forecast to move northeast and be located near Charlotte, NC tomorrow night. As this low lifts to the northeast, it will begin pulling down a shallow, modified arctic air mass on the backside of the low. Not surprisingly, this shallow air mass has been poorly forecast by the models for the last 36 hours, and I feel like surface temperatures will be cooler than forecast even without any dynamic processes in play.
Isentropic upglide, PVA, and the right rear quadrant of a jet streak are causing a large shield of rain that is soaking parts of Louisiana and most of Mississippi tonight. This steady shield of rain will continue to expand and shift northward overnight so look for rainfall amounts to exceed an inch overnight. The precipitation will stay all liquid overnight as forecast soundings from all models do not show any type of frozen profile (large melting layer, warm temperatures in the melting layer, and above freezing surface temperatures). Temperatures won't change much tonight and will likely be around 38 before sunrise.
Heavy rain will continue to fall for a few hours after sunrise, but then things get really interesting late tomorrow morning and afternoon. Temperatures will likely drop after sunrise with the approach of the upper air low. This low will begin to move to the northeast and the main core should remain to our south. These upper level lows are notorious for generating their own cold air, and snow does not appear to be any question for Central and Southeast Mississippi. Given the close proximity of the upper low, a low/mid level convergence zone will develop and will lead to localized higher snowfall totals. It's very difficult to predict exactly where this band of heavier snow will set up, but it appears most likely to run in a direction from southwest to northeast and Starkville could be very close to its northern fringe.
Although the upper low will not be directly over us, very strong upward motion will cause dynamic cooling to occur. This will allow the temperature profile to cool enough for wet snow to begin after 11 a.m. in Starkville. Surface temperatures will likely remain just above freezing so it may be initially tough for snow to stick on the warm ground. However, given the impressive vertical motion forecast by all the models, a burst of heavy snow is likely, which will likely allow a thin layer of snow to cover the ground. When this occurs, it should be no problem for additional snow to accumulate on the surface. Additionally, with a heavy burst of snow, the surface temperature should begin dropping and be around 33 by early afternoon. The heavy snow may continue through most of the afternoon before tapering off around 5 p.m.
Snowfall totals are difficult to predict given how long it will take for the snow to first cover the warm ground. My best guess is probably close to an hour, but with almost five hours of snow, we could receive 1-3" and possibly up to 4" if the northern fringe of the heavy snow band moves through. I'll forecast 2" of snow in Starkville.
One aspect of this storm that is not getting a lot of attention is the potential for strong winds tomorrow. As the surface low moves east, a tight pressure gradient will allow northwest and northeast winds to gust over 30 mph at times tomorrow. This will make temperatures feel like they are in the 20s for most of the day! Be sure to cover your skin if you'll be outdoors for any extended period of time.
This will be the first true snow I have experienced in Starkville and I've been here over 8 years! It's going to be an exciting day tomorrow. Check back tomorrow morning for a new update on the forecast.
Isentropic upglide, PVA, and the right rear quadrant of a jet streak are causing a large shield of rain that is soaking parts of Louisiana and most of Mississippi tonight. This steady shield of rain will continue to expand and shift northward overnight so look for rainfall amounts to exceed an inch overnight. The precipitation will stay all liquid overnight as forecast soundings from all models do not show any type of frozen profile (large melting layer, warm temperatures in the melting layer, and above freezing surface temperatures). Temperatures won't change much tonight and will likely be around 38 before sunrise.
Heavy rain will continue to fall for a few hours after sunrise, but then things get really interesting late tomorrow morning and afternoon. Temperatures will likely drop after sunrise with the approach of the upper air low. This low will begin to move to the northeast and the main core should remain to our south. These upper level lows are notorious for generating their own cold air, and snow does not appear to be any question for Central and Southeast Mississippi. Given the close proximity of the upper low, a low/mid level convergence zone will develop and will lead to localized higher snowfall totals. It's very difficult to predict exactly where this band of heavier snow will set up, but it appears most likely to run in a direction from southwest to northeast and Starkville could be very close to its northern fringe.
Although the upper low will not be directly over us, very strong upward motion will cause dynamic cooling to occur. This will allow the temperature profile to cool enough for wet snow to begin after 11 a.m. in Starkville. Surface temperatures will likely remain just above freezing so it may be initially tough for snow to stick on the warm ground. However, given the impressive vertical motion forecast by all the models, a burst of heavy snow is likely, which will likely allow a thin layer of snow to cover the ground. When this occurs, it should be no problem for additional snow to accumulate on the surface. Additionally, with a heavy burst of snow, the surface temperature should begin dropping and be around 33 by early afternoon. The heavy snow may continue through most of the afternoon before tapering off around 5 p.m.
Snowfall totals are difficult to predict given how long it will take for the snow to first cover the warm ground. My best guess is probably close to an hour, but with almost five hours of snow, we could receive 1-3" and possibly up to 4" if the northern fringe of the heavy snow band moves through. I'll forecast 2" of snow in Starkville.
One aspect of this storm that is not getting a lot of attention is the potential for strong winds tomorrow. As the surface low moves east, a tight pressure gradient will allow northwest and northeast winds to gust over 30 mph at times tomorrow. This will make temperatures feel like they are in the 20s for most of the day! Be sure to cover your skin if you'll be outdoors for any extended period of time.
This will be the first true snow I have experienced in Starkville and I've been here over 8 years! It's going to be an exciting day tomorrow. Check back tomorrow morning for a new update on the forecast.
Winter Storm Warning Issued
The NWS has issued a winter storm warning for Oktibbeha County and surrounding areas until 6 p.m. Thursday. I'll have a detailed discussion highlighting my thoughts later this evening. It's going to be a fun day tomorrow!
Sharply Colder, Big Changes in Store
A strong cold front that brought over 2.00" of rain and a rash of severe weather last night passed through the area just after 3 a.m. Temperatures have since dropped quickly this morning and we're currently at 45 with a gusty northwest wind making it feel like temperatures are in the 30s. With cloud cover hanging tough and surface cold air advection, temperatures will hold steady this morning with an afternoon high around 44. However, gusty north northwest winds will make it feel like temperatures are in the 30s all day.
Rain will quickly return late tonight as the main upper air disturbance associated with this system moves our direction. At the same time, a jet streak will combine with the upper air disturbance to promote cyclogenesis in the Florida Panhandle tonight. This will be a big player for us because it will pull colder air down on the backside of the low. Temperatures will begin to drop late this evening to near 40. Forecast soundings show the precipitation should remain ALL rain tonight through sunrise tomorrow morning. In fact, the temperature tomorrow morning will be around 38 with a cold rain falling for your morning commute to work or school.
I'll have another update detailing the prospects for winter weather later. As a heads up, the NWS has issued a winter storm watch for our area tomorrow. More on that later!
Rain will quickly return late tonight as the main upper air disturbance associated with this system moves our direction. At the same time, a jet streak will combine with the upper air disturbance to promote cyclogenesis in the Florida Panhandle tonight. This will be a big player for us because it will pull colder air down on the backside of the low. Temperatures will begin to drop late this evening to near 40. Forecast soundings show the precipitation should remain ALL rain tonight through sunrise tomorrow morning. In fact, the temperature tomorrow morning will be around 38 with a cold rain falling for your morning commute to work or school.
I'll have another update detailing the prospects for winter weather later. As a heads up, the NWS has issued a winter storm watch for our area tomorrow. More on that later!
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
New Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Another severe thunderstorm warning of the evening has been issued for Oktibbeha, Noxubee, and Lowndes Counties until 11 p.m. A bowing segment of thunderstorms extends from just west of Starkville southward to eastern Winston County. This line has shown a bowing segment in the last few scans and some damaging winds may occur with this line, especially in the Noxubee Wildlife Refuge and Crawford. The main part of this storm should stay south and east of the Starkville city limits, but heavy rain will continue occurring in the county outside of the warned area. Once this storm exits the area after 11 p.m., the severe weather potential will decrease substantially. The temperature has fallen to 61 with the dew point down to 59 now. This indicates that the instability has weakened in the last hour and will limit the chance of severe weather for the remainder of the evening. However, Noxubee County and areas further south will not be out of the clear until after midnight. A steady rain will continue to fall for a few more hours until the cold front passes early Wednesday morning. I'll have a forecast tomorrow and look at the prospects of winter weather for Thursday!
Tornado Warning Issued
The NWS has issued a tornado warning for Clay, Lowndes, and Oktibbeha Counties until 9:45 p.m. Weak rotation is noted in the velocity products, but it's certainly not impressive. The base reflectivity looks a bit more impressive with an inflow notch present just to the west of West Point. Still, with very high shear values, it's a good idea to treat this seriously and go to a place of shelter if you live in West Point or the Columbus Air Force Base. This storm should exit the area very shortly, but Starkville remains under a severe thunderstorm warning. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will accompany this storm for the next 30-45 minutes. I'll have another update shortly.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Issued
The NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Choctaw, Webster, Clay, and Oktibbeha Counties until 9:15 p.m. This line currently extends from Ackerman through Mantee. These storms will mainly produce strong winds in excess of 60 mph within the next hour, but a tornado cannot be completely ruled out due to very high low level wind shear. In addition to the damaging winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall will be likely with these storms. Check back later for another update.
Severe Weather Threat Increasing
A line of severe thunderstorms currently extends from just north of Canton through Walthall. Tornado warnings are currently in effect for Webster, Choctaw, Montgomery, Atalla, and Holmes Counties. The most impressive storm appears to be in Atalla County with a strong velocity couplet to the southwest of Kosciusko. This storm may have the highest threat of a tornado in the next hour since it is very close to the surface warm front. This line of storms is still at least an hour or so away from affecting Oktibbeha County and most likely will impact the area after 9:00 p.m. Warnings will likely be issued very shortly so be prepared to take shelter when one is issued.
I note the temperature is steady our 65 but the dew point has risen to 62 now. The dew point may rise another degree or two before the storms move into the area. This will allow the storms to maintain their intensity when the arrive in our area. With the warm front expected to be in close proximity to us later, isolated tornadoes will be possible, but the highest threat for this area still appears to be damaging winds. The storms that extend from Madison to Atalla County appear to be taking on more of a quasi-linear convective system appearance on radar which will only enhance the potential for strong winds later. I'll have another update later.
I note the temperature is steady our 65 but the dew point has risen to 62 now. The dew point may rise another degree or two before the storms move into the area. This will allow the storms to maintain their intensity when the arrive in our area. With the warm front expected to be in close proximity to us later, isolated tornadoes will be possible, but the highest threat for this area still appears to be damaging winds. The storms that extend from Madison to Atalla County appear to be taking on more of a quasi-linear convective system appearance on radar which will only enhance the potential for strong winds later. I'll have another update later.
New Tornado Watch
The SPC has issued a tornado watch for the Starkville area until 11 p.m. tonight. Temperatures spiked this afternoon in the lower 70s ahead of the main swath of rain. Currently, temperatures are running around 65 with dew points up to 62 in Starkville. A thunderstorm has passed through the area within the last 30 minutes and dropped about 0.10" of rain.
The bigger story developing at this hour is the tornado warnings that are in effect for Yazoo and Holmes County. In fact, the storm in Yazoo County has looked extremely impressive for the last 45 minutes and has produced a large tornado according to spotters. This dangerous storm is on the leading edge of a warm front that is beginning to move northward. This storm will move to the northeast and could approach Oktibbeha County in the next couple of hours. If the warm front continues progressing to the north and this storm is within 25 miles of the front, it will continue to pose a high risk of tornadoes. It's most likely to outrun the warm front and become more elevated with time, which will somewhat reduce the risk of a tornado. Behind this supercell is the main squall line that will move through the area later tonight and will pose a higher threat of damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the magnitude of the low level shear. I'll have another update later this evening.
The bigger story developing at this hour is the tornado warnings that are in effect for Yazoo and Holmes County. In fact, the storm in Yazoo County has looked extremely impressive for the last 45 minutes and has produced a large tornado according to spotters. This dangerous storm is on the leading edge of a warm front that is beginning to move northward. This storm will move to the northeast and could approach Oktibbeha County in the next couple of hours. If the warm front continues progressing to the north and this storm is within 25 miles of the front, it will continue to pose a high risk of tornadoes. It's most likely to outrun the warm front and become more elevated with time, which will somewhat reduce the risk of a tornado. Behind this supercell is the main squall line that will move through the area later tonight and will pose a higher threat of damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the magnitude of the low level shear. I'll have another update later this evening.
Tornado Watch
The SPC has issued a tornado watch for Southeast Arkansas, Northern and Central Louisiana, and Western and Central Mississippi until 5 p.m. this evening. This does not include Oktibbeha County, but expect a tornado watch to be issued later today for our area.
Currently: Supercell thunderstorms are developing in Central Louisiana and will pose a risk of tornadoes as they move to the northeast through the morning and early afternoon hours. These storms and new storms will move into Southwest Mississippi after noon. At that time, the tornado threat will increase across Southwest Mississippi as these storms move into an area with moderate instability and high wind shear.
Further northwest, rain has ended in Starkville, and we should remain dry until this afternoon. Temperatures are currently 57 under cloudy skies, but the dew point has jumped to 50 within the last hour. The temperature and dew point will continue climbing throughout the remainder of the morning. Winds remain strong out of the southeast with gusts up to 26 already this morning and these will only become stronger later today. Check back today for frequent updates on the severe weather situation. For mobile users, check out http://msuweather.mofuse.mobi/ for updates.
Currently: Supercell thunderstorms are developing in Central Louisiana and will pose a risk of tornadoes as they move to the northeast through the morning and early afternoon hours. These storms and new storms will move into Southwest Mississippi after noon. At that time, the tornado threat will increase across Southwest Mississippi as these storms move into an area with moderate instability and high wind shear.
Further northwest, rain has ended in Starkville, and we should remain dry until this afternoon. Temperatures are currently 57 under cloudy skies, but the dew point has jumped to 50 within the last hour. The temperature and dew point will continue climbing throughout the remainder of the morning. Winds remain strong out of the southeast with gusts up to 26 already this morning and these will only become stronger later today. Check back today for frequent updates on the severe weather situation. For mobile users, check out http://msuweather.mofuse.mobi/ for updates.
Warmer, Stormy
A strong cold front will pass through the state today and bring a good soaking rain and severe thunderstorms to many locations. The sun has made a brief appearance at times this morning, but most of the day should remain cloudy, but areas south of Starkville may see more sunshine throughout the day. An ongoing round of showers and thunderstorms that formed in Texas and Oklahoma is affecting a good part of Northern Mississippi, including the Starkville area. This rain should end after 9 a.m. and we may see a break until the afternoon. Temperatures should begin to rise after the rain exits the area and we'll likely make it up to 67 this afternoon. Outside of the rain and storms, it will also be breezy today with wind gusts over 30 mph at times!
The big show will hold off until tonight as the cold front approaches. Instability and wind shear will both be plenty high to support a cool season severe weather event. In fact, newest model data indicates slightly higher instability than previously expected. I still think damaging winds will be our biggest threat, but the higher degree of instability does slightly increase the potential for isolated tornadoes in our area. However, the linear nature of the storms tonight will probably offset the higher instability. Regardless, damaging winds are a distinct possibility with 50 knot winds located 2,000 feet above the surface, and it won't be very difficult to transport these higher winds down to the surface. The rain should end after frontal passage around 4 a.m. and temperatures will begin to drop. Temperatures should be in the mid 50s by sunrise but falling quickly into the 40s by the middle morning hours.
Please stay close to a source of weather information this evening. I'll have another update today, but for a more detailed severe weather discussion, see last evening's post.
The big show will hold off until tonight as the cold front approaches. Instability and wind shear will both be plenty high to support a cool season severe weather event. In fact, newest model data indicates slightly higher instability than previously expected. I still think damaging winds will be our biggest threat, but the higher degree of instability does slightly increase the potential for isolated tornadoes in our area. However, the linear nature of the storms tonight will probably offset the higher instability. Regardless, damaging winds are a distinct possibility with 50 knot winds located 2,000 feet above the surface, and it won't be very difficult to transport these higher winds down to the surface. The rain should end after frontal passage around 4 a.m. and temperatures will begin to drop. Temperatures should be in the mid 50s by sunrise but falling quickly into the 40s by the middle morning hours.
Please stay close to a source of weather information this evening. I'll have another update today, but for a more detailed severe weather discussion, see last evening's post.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Severe Weather Potential
Currently: A strong shortwave that was over the Desert Southwest this morning is now moving across West Texas. This shortwave has triggered the formation of an area of low pressure that is situated across Central Kansas. Extending northeast from the low is a warm front and a cold front extends southwest from the low pressure. In the warm sector ahead of the cold front and upper air shortwave, showers and thunderstorms broke out earlier this evening and are now affecting Oklahoma and Texas. These storms should increase in coverage and intensity in the soupier air mass of North Texas later this evening as they move eastward.
Closer to home, high clouds blanket the sky tonight and temperatures have only dropped into the lower 50s with a strong southeast wind. Increasing lower level moisture is evident in the latest infrared satellite images that show an extensive low stratus deck to our west. Dew points have also risen into the 60s over Southeast Texas with lower 50s up to the I-20 corridor.
Overnight: With clouds continuing to increase, strong southeast winds, and dew points climbing, don't look for temperatures to drop off much at all tonight. In fact, we may hover around 50 for most of the night. We should remain dry for most of the night, but with warm air advection and a weak shortwave approaching the area, there is a slight possibility that a few showers could develop late tonight. However, a strong cap will likely keep most showers very isolated in nature A more organized complex of storms will continue to develop and increase in intensity back in North Texas overnight and should be located in Western Mississippi near sunrise.
Tuesday Morning: Skies should be cloudy, but temperatures and dew points will increase after sunrise. Temperatures should be in the upper 50s with dew points in the lower 50s by late tomorrow morning. This should allow the line of storms in Western Mississippi to slowly intensify as the morning progresses. This activity may approach the Starkville area by the late morning hours. Outside of the rain and thunderstorms, south southeast winds will be rather strong tomorrow as the low level winds increase substantially through the day. In fact, 45 mph winds will be located just 1,000 feet above the surface tomorrow morning. I don't think we'll be able to mix these down to the surface, but wind gusts up to 25 mph could occur during the morning hours.
Tuesday Afternoon: Look for the line of showers and thunderstorms to continue moving through the area early tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s and dew points will reach the upper 50s by the early afternoon hours. I'm not expecting severe weather during this time frame for our area due to limited instability.
However, this will be a period of interest for areas in Southwest Mississippi. A lead shortwave will pass through this area during the morning hours and will likely create subsidence in its wake. If the subsidence is minimal, this could set the stage for a few supercells to develop across Southwest Mississippi by the afternoon where instability will be a little higher. The supercells would pose a heightened risk for tornadoes given the strength of the low-level shear forecast (0-1 km shear > 20 m s-1). This threat should be confined south of I-20.
Tuesday Night: Temperatures will actually rise through the evening as the storm system approaches and should top out around 65 before midnight. Dew points will also continue to rise into the lower 60s ahead of the main cold front. With our temperature and moisture increasing in the lower levels, heights will fall as the main trough approaches. This will allow instability to increase ahead of the cold front Tuesday night and set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms. Wind fields really strengthen again tomorrow night, and the thunderstorms may be able to transport these strong winds to the surface. I think damaging winds are the most likely threat for our area, but isolated tornadoes are certainly possible given the strong low level shear forecast. However, these storms will be in a line as opposed to isolated supercells. Regardless, with these cool season events, it doesn't take a lot of instability to create some big problems. The main threat of severe weather in the Starkville area will likely occur between 9 p.m. and midnight.
Rain and storms could continue through 4 a.m. when the cold front passes. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 50s and into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon behind the front. Definitely bring a coat to work or school on Wednesday!
I'll have much more on the severe weather threat tomorrow, but please keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night. Given the threat of a overnight severe weather event, it wouldn't be a bad idea to visit Wal-Mart or Radio Shack and pick up a weather radio. It's a great early family Christmas gift!
Closer to home, high clouds blanket the sky tonight and temperatures have only dropped into the lower 50s with a strong southeast wind. Increasing lower level moisture is evident in the latest infrared satellite images that show an extensive low stratus deck to our west. Dew points have also risen into the 60s over Southeast Texas with lower 50s up to the I-20 corridor.
Overnight: With clouds continuing to increase, strong southeast winds, and dew points climbing, don't look for temperatures to drop off much at all tonight. In fact, we may hover around 50 for most of the night. We should remain dry for most of the night, but with warm air advection and a weak shortwave approaching the area, there is a slight possibility that a few showers could develop late tonight. However, a strong cap will likely keep most showers very isolated in nature A more organized complex of storms will continue to develop and increase in intensity back in North Texas overnight and should be located in Western Mississippi near sunrise.
Tuesday Morning: Skies should be cloudy, but temperatures and dew points will increase after sunrise. Temperatures should be in the upper 50s with dew points in the lower 50s by late tomorrow morning. This should allow the line of storms in Western Mississippi to slowly intensify as the morning progresses. This activity may approach the Starkville area by the late morning hours. Outside of the rain and thunderstorms, south southeast winds will be rather strong tomorrow as the low level winds increase substantially through the day. In fact, 45 mph winds will be located just 1,000 feet above the surface tomorrow morning. I don't think we'll be able to mix these down to the surface, but wind gusts up to 25 mph could occur during the morning hours.
Tuesday Afternoon: Look for the line of showers and thunderstorms to continue moving through the area early tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s and dew points will reach the upper 50s by the early afternoon hours. I'm not expecting severe weather during this time frame for our area due to limited instability.
However, this will be a period of interest for areas in Southwest Mississippi. A lead shortwave will pass through this area during the morning hours and will likely create subsidence in its wake. If the subsidence is minimal, this could set the stage for a few supercells to develop across Southwest Mississippi by the afternoon where instability will be a little higher. The supercells would pose a heightened risk for tornadoes given the strength of the low-level shear forecast (0-1 km shear > 20 m s-1). This threat should be confined south of I-20.
Tuesday Night: Temperatures will actually rise through the evening as the storm system approaches and should top out around 65 before midnight. Dew points will also continue to rise into the lower 60s ahead of the main cold front. With our temperature and moisture increasing in the lower levels, heights will fall as the main trough approaches. This will allow instability to increase ahead of the cold front Tuesday night and set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms. Wind fields really strengthen again tomorrow night, and the thunderstorms may be able to transport these strong winds to the surface. I think damaging winds are the most likely threat for our area, but isolated tornadoes are certainly possible given the strong low level shear forecast. However, these storms will be in a line as opposed to isolated supercells. Regardless, with these cool season events, it doesn't take a lot of instability to create some big problems. The main threat of severe weather in the Starkville area will likely occur between 9 p.m. and midnight.
Rain and storms could continue through 4 a.m. when the cold front passes. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 50s and into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon behind the front. Definitely bring a coat to work or school on Wednesday!
I'll have much more on the severe weather threat tomorrow, but please keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night. Given the threat of a overnight severe weather event, it wouldn't be a bad idea to visit Wal-Mart or Radio Shack and pick up a weather radio. It's a great early family Christmas gift!
Some Clouds, Breezy, & Warmer
After remaining quite chilly for most of the last 7 days, we are in line for a couple of warm days as a ridging builds over the Southeast. This is in response to a big storm system that is currently located in the Desert Southwest. It will quickly move east and increase our rain chances tomorrow. In the meantime, a few clouds will mix with sunshine today and will limit our heating potential this afternoon. Regardless, it will be much warmer than the last few days with a high around 56. If there are less clouds than I expect, highs could be in the upper 50s. Lower level winds will increase today and with afternoon mixing, we could see some stronger winds today with gusts over 20 mph. Hold on to your hat this afternoon!
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening in advance of the storm system that is expected to be in Central Texas by tonight. With a strong southeast wind overnight, I think temperatures will hold steady and be around 49 in the morning. Tomorrow will be warmer and windier, but that usually spells trouble in Mississippi in December. Severe weather is a good bet tomorrow, but I think the best chance will be just south of our area. However, this will be a classic cool season severe weather event with damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes likely across Dixie Alley. More on the severe weather potential later...
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening in advance of the storm system that is expected to be in Central Texas by tonight. With a strong southeast wind overnight, I think temperatures will hold steady and be around 49 in the morning. Tomorrow will be warmer and windier, but that usually spells trouble in Mississippi in December. Severe weather is a good bet tomorrow, but I think the best chance will be just south of our area. However, this will be a classic cool season severe weather event with damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes likely across Dixie Alley. More on the severe weather potential later...
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Increasing Clouds, Warmer, Rain Late
A few passing high clouds and a south wind have kept temperatures from falling too far this morning at GTR, but areas that have seen light to calm winds are below freezing this morning. Despite the cold temperatures this morning, we'll rebound nicely this afternoon with our warmest day in almost a week. The big warm up is due to our next storm system organizing over the Four Corners. This system will dig into Texas before ejecting eastward into the Southeast later tonight. As the trough digs in, it will also amplify a weak ridge over the region and allow warm air advection to commence.
The big question about how warm we get today will be controlled by how quickly the cloud cover arrives. The main band of clouds is still back in Western Arkansas and Northeast Texas with clear skies ahead of the band. If this scenario plays out, we should have a longer duration with mostly sunny skies which will allow us to warm into the 60s. With more sunshine, I think we will mix higher than both the GFS and NAM suggest so I'll forecast a high of 64 today.
Skies will be cloudy by this evening and rain chances will increase early Thursday morning as a cold front approaches the area. The trend in the models has been to slow down the timing of the system and it looks like tomorrow morning will be the wet after the cold front passes in the early morning. Severe weather doesn't look likely for our area with this system arriving during the morning hours. With the frontal passage, temperatures will fall quickly and should be around 45 tomorrow morning.
The big question about how warm we get today will be controlled by how quickly the cloud cover arrives. The main band of clouds is still back in Western Arkansas and Northeast Texas with clear skies ahead of the band. If this scenario plays out, we should have a longer duration with mostly sunny skies which will allow us to warm into the 60s. With more sunshine, I think we will mix higher than both the GFS and NAM suggest so I'll forecast a high of 64 today.
Skies will be cloudy by this evening and rain chances will increase early Thursday morning as a cold front approaches the area. The trend in the models has been to slow down the timing of the system and it looks like tomorrow morning will be the wet after the cold front passes in the early morning. Severe weather doesn't look likely for our area with this system arriving during the morning hours. With the frontal passage, temperatures will fall quickly and should be around 45 tomorrow morning.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Still Cool
Skies cleared long enough this morning for temperatures to hit 27, but with cold temperatures just above the surface, I it's possible we might stay in the 40s again today. However, model differences between the NAM and GFS 850 mb temperatures are 3 degrees and this will determine whether we stay in the 40s or warm into the 50s. I'll take a compromise between them and forecast a high of 50 this afternoon. Wind speeds between 5-10 mph will still make it feel like temperatures are in the 40s. Skies should remain clear tonight with decreasing wind speeds, but a south wind should keep us a few degrees warmer tonight. I'm still going to undercut guidance and forecast a low of 31. A nice warming trend begins tomorrow as our next storm system approaches. Rain chances will increase substantially by tomorrow evening and we could be dealing with a few thunderstorms.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Cloudy, Cold, & Blustery
Temperatures warmed up for a couple of days late last week, but we've turned sharply colder following a frontal passage on Sunday. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s and likely won't rise much today with low clouds and strong cold air advection. The main upper air low is lifting the little moisture that is currently around and causing some snow flurries mainly to our north. A few flurries are possible this morning around the area, but the best chance to see these would be up north. No travel problems will occur since temperatures are above freezing! Clouds will hang around this afternoon and the high will top out around 44. Clouds may still hang tough through most of the night and won't allow temperatures to drop as far as they could. With this in mind, I think the overnight low drops to 29. If skies are clear longer than forecast, lows could easily be 2-3 degrees colder. A big temperature swing is in store this week with highs in the 60s on Wednesday but turning colder by the end of the week.
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