Low Morning Clouds, S

A low stratus deck and steady winds kept the low temperature around 30 overnight. These pesky low clouds should begin to break up by late this morning, but another fast moving upper level disturbance will increase cloud cover again late this afternoon and evening. The timing of both of these will be critical to the high temperature. If the low clouds can break up by 10:00 this morning, I think we can reach the lower 50s, but I'm afraid the clouds don't dissipate until after 11:00 so I'll forecast a high of 49. With clouds around again tonight and winds turning to a westerly direction, I think we'll end up around 30 again tomorrow morning.

The eastern trough/western ridge pattern begins to break down tomorrow with moderating temperatures. We'll likely have low clouds again tomorrow morning, but afternoon sunshine should warm us up to 56. Even warmer weather is in store for Sunday. High clouds will likely increase Sunday afternoon, but the high should be able to reach 64. Big changes are in store early next week as an arctic air mass and a Gulf low impact our weather. Some wintry weather still looks possible with this storm, but there likely won't be enough moisture in our area to create major problems. Looking even further into the future, it looks like we turn mild again late next week and into the weekend. I'll have another post later today that will break down the threat for wintry weather in our area.

Morning Clouds, Afternoon Sun

Despite a colder air mass being in place behind yesterday's front, a persistent stratus deck only allowed the temperature to drop to 30 this morning. Low clouds will likely hang around through late morning before giving way to sunshine for the entire afternoon. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, but it's still going to be on the cool side today. I think the high temperature can hit 51 this afternoon. It appears as though a dry front passes through early Friday morning, but it likely won't have a major impact on temperatures. A few low clouds should develop along the front and will keep temperatures from dropping too far. Look for tomorrow morning's low to be 29. Quiet weather and moderating temperatures will remain the norm through the weekend. However, the topic of conversation may be centered on the weather for early next week. Our next chance of rain looks to be Monday and there is a chance of some wintry weather with that storm system. More on that later...

Spring Has Not Sprung!

Yesterday's forecast headline has been emphatically answered. The strong cold front pushed through just after 3 a.m. and has since dropped temperatures to 40. Rain associated with the front fell early this morning, but rain may be around through the late morning hours. Radars show that we'll have to contend with another batch of light rain that is moving through Western and Central Mississippi. In fact, some of this precipitation is frozen in parts of the Delta and Northern Mississippi. Upper level moisture dries out before our temperature profile would support any type of wintry weather so we should escape any frozen precipitation. Regardless, it's still going to be a cold rain. Low clouds will dominate the sky cover today, and temperatures may continue to fall into the upper 30s this morning before briefly hitting 43 this afternoon. Skies will begin to clear tonight and we should drop to 28 in the morning. Be careful if you have any travels north and west today.

Has Spring Sprung?

In response to an organizing storm system to our west, a warm front surged northward overnight and caused temperatures to rise after midnight. Before briefly dropping to 50, temperatures rose and remained steady in the mid 50s for much of the night. Moisture increased in association with the warm front caused a low stratus deck to form. Look for these low clouds to break up some this morning and allow a mixture of mid level clouds and sun for a good part of the day. We'll remain in the warm sector of this storm system and temperatures should climb into the upper 60s to near 70 this afternoon. I'll forecast a high of 70 today.

The cold front approaches tonight and rain and possibly a thunderstorm will arrive after 10 p.m. Temperatures should remain steady in the lower 60s until the front passes. After it does, temperatures will drop sharply and will be around 40 in the morning. Rain will continue through Wednesday morning and some wintry weather may occur here tomorrow. At this point it looks like we could see a brief period of sleet, but surface temperatures will likely remain above freezing and prevent major problems for us. However, if you're headed to the Mississippi Delta or Northern Mississippi, freezing and rain and sleet will be more likely.

This storm system will wreak havoc across a large portion of the country with a large swath of ice and snow. In fact, winter weather type advisories, watches, or warnings, are in effect from the Big Bend of Texas to Maine!

Mostly Cloudy but Warmer

Cloudy skies prevented temperatures from dropping overnight, and it actually hovered around 39 most of the night. Despite a building upper level ridge and warm temperatures above the surface, we won't be able to completely realize the high temperature potential today due to cloud cover associated with a frontal boundary to our south. That's the same front that moved through on Saturday but has stalled along the Gulf coast for the last couple of days. We should see some breaks in the clouds this afternoon and this should bump us into the 50s. Highs this afternoon will top out at 54.

As our next weather maker begins to organize in West Texas tonight, it will begin to lift the stalled frontal boundary north as a warm front. Therefore, temperatures tonight may remain steady or even rise some after midnight. Skies will be cloudy and there is the possibility that a few showers may occur as the warm front retreats northward. Temperatures will be around 51 tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will easily be our warmest day before we turn cold again for the remainder of the week.

Warm, Rain Arrives Late

A few high clouds and southerly winds kept the temperature from dropping too far last night. We're currently sitting at 43 and will be headed up to near 70 later this afternoon. Our warmth will be short lived, however, as a cold front is currently entering Northwest Arkansas. The upper air flow is not particularly conducive for a fast moving frontal passage, and in fact, the front likely won't pass until late tonight. The GFS and NAM are still in slight disagreement with the timing of the front. I like the NAM's later arrival due to the upper air pattern. High clouds will be dominant for most of the day, but with warm air aloft, I think we can reach 70 this afternoon.

Since I prefer the NAM's timing, rain will likely begin after 9 p.m. The rain should last for a few hours but should end a little after midnight when the front sweeps through. Colder air behind the front will drop temperatures to 41 tomorrow morning. Saturday looks mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s. Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies with highs near 50. Moderating temperatures will return next week.

Sunny, Much Warmer

Wind speeds were a little stronger than forecast overnight and the temperature hovered around 27 for several hours. We'll see a large diurnal temperature range today thanks to dry air, southerly winds, and a building upper level ridge. It's been awhile since we have been influenced by ridging aloft and because of it, we'll see temperatures 15-20 degrees warmer than the last couple of days. We should have abundant sunshine this afternoon so look for the high to be 58. With a new air mass in place, I may be going a little too low on the high and we could reach 60 today. I'm still reluctant to go too warm just in case any of the last remaining arctic air mass is still around.

Moisture will be increasing throughout the day as southerly winds begin to pump Gulf moisture into the area and approaching upper level disturbances will cause high clouds to increase after midnight. These two factors will keep us several degrees warmer overnight, but I still think we'll drop to 41. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken tomorrow as our next rain maker arrives. It will be even warmer with highs well into the 60s.

Still Chilly

An ideal radiational cooling setup has allowed the temperature to drop to 18 already this morning. Today will be a transition day as our upper air flow becomes less amplified as the Eastern U.S. trough moves to the east. A warm air advection regime will begin aloft as this trough shifts eastward, but the lingering arctic air mass at the surface will be prevalent enough to put a damper on a big temperature increase. A surface high pressure that is just to our south will move to the east and will allow southerly winds to develop, but they will have to contend with the residual arctic air. Still, I think we can manage to hit 46 this afternoon under sunny skies.

Tomorrow morning's temperature is a little tricky. Southerly winds will increase moisture through the day and this evening, but clear skies and light winds will still allow for cold temperatures tomorrow morning. With this in mind, I'll forecast 27 tomorrow morning. Temperatures soar tomorrow with 60s possible and likely by Friday as another cold front approaches.

Clouds at Times and Cold

Low clouds arrived after midnight in advance of a potent upper air system and a few snow flurries are ongoing just to our north. Don't be surprised to see a few flurries this morning, but the best shot of seeing these will be to our north and east. The current temperature is 28 and it's not going to climb a lot higher today due to a persistent stratus deck and strong cold air advection. This afternoon's high will hit 37, but a strong pressure gradient will make the temperature feel like it's in the 20s most of the day. Clouds will clear later this evening and the winds will begin to subside. As a result, the temperature will be primed to drop quickly with dry air in place. I think we drop to 20 tomorrow morning so be sure to bundle up going to work or school. Get through today and the reward will be 60s by the end of the week. Our next chance of rain will also be Friday as another cold front approaches.

Cold Returns

Saturday was quite chilly, but a brief period of freezing rain came as a surprise. The sun returned yesterday and we warmed up very nicely, but the warm weather will quickly vanish as another arctic front blasts through the area later this morning. Clouds will be off and on throughout the day and there likely won't be an abundant amount of of sunshine. As a result of this and frontal passage, highs today will be up to 15 degrees colder than yesterday. I think we make it up to 48 today, but gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder this afternoon.

Tonight's forecast is interesting because a very strong upper air disturbance will approach the area from the north. However, the arctic front will scour most of the moisture that this upper air system will have to work with. Still, there may be enough moisture for some snow flurries to develop after midnight. No accumulations will occur since the snowfall rate will be minimal. Low clouds will counteract the arctic air mass tonight and will allow temperatures to drop to 26 tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be the coldest day of the week with highs remaining in the 30s, but a change to warmer weather is still in the works for the end of the week.

Bitterly Cold

Extensive low cloud cover before midnight and wind speeds near 10 mph all night kept the air mixed enough to prevent the temperature from really plummeting. Regardless, anyway you slice it, 16 is frigid to me. In some respects, today's weather will be similar to yesterday except it will be slightly cooler and we won't have to deal with the strong winds. This morning should be sunny, but clouds will increase later this afternoon and evening. I think we only hit 32 this afternoon so that means we'll experience a lengthy duration with below freezing temperatures. We likely won't rise above freezing again until late tomorrow morning. The good news is that winds should be much weaker than they were yesterday so the temperature shouldn't feel much colder. I think our coldest night will actually be tonight since clouds should exit the area and winds will be lighter. The temperature tomorrow morning will be around 13.

The arctic high shifts to the northeast of us tomorrow and we should warm back into the 40s. Tomorrow morning should be mostly sunny but low clouds will arrive in the afternoon. Another cold front approaches the area Sunday and will bring a chance of light rain. It will continue to be chilly with highs in the upper 40s. The front will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air early next week, but a change to warmer weather is in store late next week.

Bundle Up

The highly publicized arctic cold front plowed through the area just after midnight, but the true arctic air is lagging behind. Cloud cover and winds behind the front allowed temperatures to stay in the upper 20s this morning, but you don't have to go very far to find lower 20s and even upper teens to our north. Strong cold air advection will dominate today and keep temperatures from rising much at all. There will likely be a few clouds off and on throughout the day, but the morning hours will likely feature more clouds than the afternoon. Even if we do get more sunshine this afternoon, I think the high temperature only reaches 34! Northwest winds may be gusty at times this morning and early afternoon which will make the temperature feel like it's in the 20s.

Winds will relax some tonight, but enough of a pressure gradient should keep us from dropping into the single digits. Additionally, a few high clouds may stick around through tonight, but most of the night should feature clear skies. I think we bottom out at 12 tomorrow morning. It will be one of the coldest nights I can remember in a long time so make sure you bring the pets inside and check on the elderly. If you'll be outside for any time tonight, wrap up and cover as much of your skin as possible to prevent frostbite. Tomorrow looks like the coldest day of the season with highs struggling to reach freezing. If you're already tired of the cold weather, it looks like we turn warmer by middle to late next week.

One More Warm Day

It's a very cold start to the morning as the temperature dropped to 21 uner clear skies and calm winds. We'll warm up appreciably this afternoon as high pressure will quicky shift to our east and a southerly wind will component will ensue later this morning. Today should be mostly sunny, but a few stray clouds in advance of another cold front and upper air system could clip the area later this morning. If the clouds do clip us, they should move off the to east within an hour or two at the most. The high this afternoon should be able to reach 53. By tonight, a powerful arctic cold front will sweep through and will bring one of the coldest air masses in quite some time to the area. Despite the nature of the cold air associated with the front, models are insistent on keeping cloud cover around overnight. With this in mind, I'm going to undercut the models for the fact that they won't catch on to this air mass, but I don't think the bottom drops out. I'll forecast a low of 21 tomorrow morning -- still quite chilly though. Tomorrow will be extremely cold with high temperatures struggling to reach freezing and Friday morning temperatures could drop into the single digits! Brrr!

First Arctic Blast Arrives

Temperatures dropped to 30 this morning despite a cold front remaining to our west. The cold front that I discussed yesterday was expected to move through the area before now, but the timing has been slowed and it's still located just west of the I-55 corridor. The limited moisture that is associated with this front is being squeezed into a small band of very light precipitation that is just ahead of the front. Clouds will increase this morning as the front approaches from the west and some light rain will likely occur. The temperature profile will cool with the onset of the rain, and if the rain is still occurring near 1 PM, a changeover to a few snow flurries will be possible. Accumulations will not occur, but don't be surprised to see a few flakes on your lunch break. After the frontal passage, the sun will quickly return this afternoon, but temperatures will continue to be very cold. The afternoon high will be 40, but gusty northwest winds will make the temperature feel like it's below freezing.

Low clouds will linger for a short period tonight as a true arctic air mass arrives, but this will not keep temperatures from plummeting. Given the nature of this air mass, I am undercutting the model guidance and NWS a lot and forecasting a low of 19 tonight, especially with clear skies and winds forecast to be very light or calm. Bring your pets inside and bundle up if you'll be outside for any length tonight!

Increasing Clouds, Cool

Temperatures Saturday certainly spoiled everyone, but temperatures yesterday reaffirmed that this is indeed winter. I don't think you'll find anyone that will disagree with that this week. Temperatures are starting out chilly this morning around 27, but we should rebound upwards this afternoon as high pressure shifts to the east and allows for weak southerly winds. A dry cold front will also be approaching from the northwest and high clouds associated with it should arrive later this morning. Despite the southerly flow, these high clouds will effectively limit heating and we will only be able to reach 50 this afternoon. The cold front sweeps through in the early morning hours Tuesday, but extensive cloud cover will allow temperatures to reach 31 by sunrise tomorrow. A sneak peek of tomorrow shows a very cold day with highs likely only reaching 40 with a blusterly northwest wind.

2008 Severe Weather Warnings

I ran across an interesting blog that listed the top 20 National Weather Service offices by number of severe weather warnings issued in 2008. I was immediately struck by the office at the top of the list mainly because Starkville is served by this office. Jackson issued 181 more severe weather warnings that any other office in the country. I have noticed a tendency for Jackson to issue a large number of warnings, but I never imagined it would be this high. Two thoughts immediately come to mind -- was this an active severe weather year that justified the high number of warnings or are they over warning? The later really concerns me for a multitude of reasons, but I can only hope this is not the case.


Unquestionably, it was an active year for severe weather in Mississippi in 2008. In fact, preliminary data suggests that last year may have been the most active tornado year in recorded history for Mississippi. A total of 108 tornadoes would surpass the previous record of 99 set in 2005. However, I wanted to look more closely at the breakdown of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings issued last year. Of the 315 tornado warnings issued by the Jackson WFO, only 72 actually verified (23 percent). Unfortunately, that equates to a very high false alarm rate of 77 percent. Additionally, 21 percent of tornadoes that occurred in Jackson's CWA were not warned for last year. 823 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued by Jackson and 436 were verified (53 percent). A higher percentage (35%) of severe thunderstorms were not warned for.

These numbers could lead to a lengthy discussion about warnings. However, the simple fact is that we still do not know enough about severe weather, including tornadogenesis and tornado environments. While new advancements in technology have increased our understanding, we are still a long way from being able to accurately warn severe weather. Other issues are involved in the warning process besides meteorology, but more research and more advances in technology can only help the cause. I am a strong believer that more severe weather research needs to be conducted outside of Tornado Alley. There are several pieces of literature that suggest tornado environments in other areas of the country are significantly different than the Great Plains. How can forecasters in Jackson, Mississippi accurately forecast and warn for tornadoes based upon an understanding of characteristics of Great Plains tornado environments?

Don't Get Used to the Warmth

We managed to drop to freezing earlier this morning when the winds went calm, but they picked again and the temperature quickly rose above freezing. We'll be a long way from freezing this afternoon as southeasterly winds usher a warmer and more moist air mass ahead of a developing cold front. Despite very warm temperatures aloft that would support 70s with ideal mixing, we won't manage to mix deep enough to tap the reservoir of warmer temperatures. With mixing up to about 2,000 feet, we'll still be able to warm into the 60s today with full sunshine. Based on a similar environment to our west and southwest yesterday, I'll hedge my forecast high above guidance and forecast 64.

Clouds will increase in advance of a quick moving cold front tonight and rain will likely begin early tomorrow morning and should last through 9 AM. I don't expect any flooding rains given the speed of the system, but it wouldn't take a lot of water to create additional problems. Temperatures will remain steady overnight around 51. Temperatures won't drop off much tomorrow even despite frontal passage, but Sunday looks much colder as an upper air trough moves through.

Sunny and Warmer

Clouds definitely played havoc with the temperatures overnight. Just after midnight, temperatures were around 39, but clouds moved in and the temperature actually rose overnight. In fact, temperatures are currently around 46 with clear skies. Skies should remain clear for the remainder of the day, and sunshine and warmer temperatures will be welcome to dry out the water logged ground. With temperatures starting warmer than expected this morning, I'm going to go slightly higher than guidance for our afternoon high. Expect a high around 59 this afternoon. Temperatures will fall quickly tonight with clear skies, but this will not be an ideal radiational cooling setup given the slightly higher winds forecast overnight (3-5 mph) and the amount of soil moisture. Therefore, I'll forecast a low of 34 tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow with 60s expected, but a return to colder weather will arrive for the weekend.

Where Is The Sun?

After an extended break from the blog, I'm back in the saddle for daily updates now that the spring semester has begun. The fire hydrant-like rain fall that fell for the past couple of days has exited well to the east of us this morning. The main upper air trough associated with the rain will swing through the area this morning and could cause some drizzle at times to our north, but we should remain dry in Starkville. The talk of the day will be the return of sunshine late this morning and early afternoon. In fact, broken clouds are visible outside this morning, but full sunshine will occur later today. It seems like eons ago that the sun shone, but I can promise the sun will make an appearance today. The timing of the sun makes the high temperature forecast a little tricky because an earlier return could allow for warmer temperatures. Judging from infrared satellite imagery, it appears the back edge of the cloud cover is near Greenwood, MS and this would suggest a return of the sun later this morning. Therefore, I'll be optimistic and forecast a high of 54 this afternoon.

High clouds will quickly approach the area tonight in advance of another upper air disturbance and this will play havoc with morning lows. Timing the exit of the clouds will determine we drop into the upper 30s or stay in the 40s. Guidance suggests that the clouds may exit just before sunrise and this may allow us to drop to 38 tonight. A warming trend is in store for the remainder of the week before another cold front arrives for the weekend. A big blast of arctic air is poised to affect the area next week, and I'll have more on this later.