A Few Clouds, Warm but Less Humid

The cold front, which was responsible for several strong to severe thunderstorms around the area yesterday, currently is located just west of I-55. This front should push through the area later this morning and early afternoon and should drop dew points and temperatures a few degrees from yesterday. Skies should be partly cloudy this morning and give way to mostly sunny skies for a few hours this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will top out around 84, but lower moisture in the air will make it feel less sticky. The real indication that a front passed us will be tonight. Dew points should be in the lower 60s with light to calm winds overnight. Model guidance does indicate the development of patchy low clouds after midnight so I'll forecast a low of 61. Hot and dry conditions and will dominate the weekend and early next week weather as a trough develops over the West and a ridge blankets the Southeast U.S. The primary storm track will finally shift further south and will bring a return to more active weather across the Plains.

PM Thunderstorms, Warm

The main weather players today will be an upper air disturbance over the Southern Plains and a cold front that currently stretches from Illinois to Northeast Texas. These two features will approach the area later today and should ignite some isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With stronger fields present throughout the troposphere today, a few of the storms that do develop could be on the strong side with an outside shot at a severe storm. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. Before the thunderstorms develop, look for skies to be partly cloudy for the morning and afternoon hours which should really allow for some warm temperatures. In fact, I think we'll top out around 88 this afternoon. I think the best chance for showers and strong thunderstorms will be this evening with the approach of the cold front. The rain and storms should push to the east by 10 p.m. Afterward, skies will be partly cloudy and the low tomorrow morning should be near 68.

Scattered Thunderstorms

The recent upper air pattern would not normally be supportive of a wet period, but thanks to a tropical disturbance, we've dealt with hit and miss thunderstorms every day since Friday. That trend looks to continue today, and in fact, the chance for rain appears fairly high to me. The old remnant circulation of the tropical disturbance continues to spin over Missouri and it will become absorbed with a cold front that will move our way this afternoon. With enhanced lifting of some very moist air, it shouldn't be any problem for showers and thunderstorms to develop today. With partly and mostly cloudy skies dominating the sky cover and the scattered thunderstorms, I think we'll be able to hit 81 this afternoon. Clouds will linger this evening and isolated showers and a thunderstorm will be possible tonight as the cold front approaches the Mississippi River by sunrise. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be near 67. The long term forecast for our area looks like we may turn drier and warmer.

Weakening Thunderstorm At Sunset

Time lapse of dying convection associated with remnants of a tropical disturbance.

This will likely turn into a new hobby. I snapped a series of 50 images (one every 30 seconds) for 30 minutes, but video processing reduced the time to only 12 seconds! If you ever try this, make sure you turn off the Auto White Balance setting on your camera!

Mostly Cloudy, A Few Showers

More typical of late spring, temperatures are starting off the day rather muggy in the mid 60s. Skies are mostly cloudy this morning and clouds will likely thicken as we go throughout the day. The main culprit is the pesky, slow moving surface low in the Gulf of Mexico. The surface low will also trigger the development of some light showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs this afternoon will top out near 79. Winds will be rather gusty this afternoon and wind gusts could exceed 20 mph at times. Skies will remain cloudy tonight and a few showers are possible as well. The low tomorrow morning will be near 66.

A Few Clouds This Afternoon, Windy, & Warm

Although temperatures are currently much warmer than they have been for the last few days, it's still a rather pleasant start to the day with temperatures in the lower 60s. It appears as though we'll start the day off with sunny skies, but a few clouds associated with an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico will be on the increase by the afternoon hours. Although the chance of a shower is not zero today, the chance of any one community getting wet is extremely small. Highs this afternoon will be slightly warmer than yesterday as we'll top out near 83. Winds will be rather gusty at times today thanks to a strong pressure gradient created by the surface low in the Gulf of Mexico and an area of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states. In fact, winds should gust over 20 mph and possibly as high as 25 mph this afternoon. I think the best chance for a shower in the next 24 hours will actually occur overnight, but I still don't believe the chance is very high. With mostly cloudy skies and a mixed boundary layer overnight, the low tomorrow morning will be near 65.

Mostly Sunny, Mild

Current temperatures are slightly warmer than the last couple of days but continue to remain unseasonably cool. The two dominant features impacting our weather include the high pressure center over the mid-Atlantic and an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. These two features are combining to provide easterly winds and very dry air. It should be mostly sunny again today, but there may be a few high clouds later today that emanate from the tropical disturbance in the Gulf. We'll also be directly underneath an upper level ridge that will allow highs to top out around 81 this afternoon. As the tropical disturbance slowly moves closer to the area by tonight, we'll begin to moisten up considerably and some additional cloud cover will arrive late tonight. This should only allow for lows to drop to near 62 tomorrow morning.

Sunny, Still Pleasant

It's another very crisp, pleasant morning, but wind speeds never went calm so temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday morning. The main weather features impacting our weather include an upper air ridge entrenched across the Great Plains, a strong high pressure area located near the Delmarva, and a tropical disturbance moving through the Bahamas. These three features will keep us dry today, but the building ridge to our west will allow for warmer temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal again today, but we should top out near 78 later today. A persistent northeast wind generated by the aforementioned surface high and surface low will continue to keep us cool at night. However, model soundings do show the possibility of a few low clouds developing early tomorrow morning and winds blowing the entire night. With this in mind, I'll hedge above guidance and forecast a low of 54 tomorrow morning.

Scattered Afternoon Storms, Warm

It's already a mild start to the day as temperatures only dropped to 70 last night. A surface high over the Ohio Valley and a surface low pressure over the Plains will continue to provide southerly winds throughout the day, which should allow us to be rather warm again. Aloft, a rather unimpressive ridge covers the Deep South but this will also continue to support warm temperatures. The main impediment for really warm temperatures today is again the presence of cloud cover. Skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times today, but highs this afternoon should be able to top out near 85. With the soupy air mass in place and slightly cooler temperatures at 700 mb, there will likely be a few scattered afternoon storms. By this evening, cloud cover looks to increase once again and there will be a very small chance for an overnight shower or thunderstorm but most areas should remain dry though. Look for the low to be a muggy 68.

The weekend could be wet at times, especially Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning as a cold front approaches. This front will pass through on Sunday and will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for early next week. I'm not ready to bite off on the GFS' forecast of upper 40s on Monday morning, but we should be well below normal in the temperature category for a couple of days next week.

Scattered Storms, Warm

Temperatures are generally in the mid 60s across the area this morning under partly cloudy skies. The partly cloudy skies will be very short lived as clouds should thicken up as the morning progresses. A line of storms associated with a small but potent upper air disturbance is currently located along and just west of the Natchez Trace. These showers and storms will back build and intensify throughout the morning as they move to the east and we'll likely have to deal with these strong storms later this morning and early afternoon. It's not out of the question that one or two storms could become severe with hail being the primary threat. The temperature forecast is extremely tricky, but my best guess is that we warm to near 80 before the storms arrive. The storms may temporarily cool us off, but we'll have a chance to clear out and warm up again, which should allow temperatures to top out near 84 this afternoon. The upper air system should exit to the east by tonight and we'll likely be left with several clouds. Despite this, temperatures should be able to settle near 67 tomorrow morning.

Showers This Morning, Some Sun This Afternoon

It's another muggy morning as temperatures have risen since midnight and are currently around 66. There are a few showers around the area and especially east of I-55 this morning. These scattered showers should move off to the north and east by 10 a.m. Afterward, I think we will remain dry as models insist that vertical mixing will cause dew points to drop this afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy this morning, but skies will break after noon and the sun should make an appearance then. Highs will top out around 81 this afternoon. Tonight should feature a few clouds and we should be on the dry side. The low tomorrow morning will be around 66.

Partly Cloudy, Warmer

It's very refreshing to step outside this morning as temperatures are in the mid 50s! We should see much more in the way of sunshine than we have for the last few days, and as a result, temperatures should be warmer with highs topping out near 80. High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide eastward and our winds will quickly turn back to the south this afternoon. Moisture will increase, but upper level disturbances should stay far enough away for me to feel confident that today will be dry. Cloud cover will increase after midnight and slightly higher dew points should keep the low near 63 tomorrow morning.

Wet Again

It was a wet weekend across the area and that looks to continue today, but that's a good thing as many areas around the state remain in a rainfall deficit. Despite the wet period recently, I have growing concerns that we could see an extended dry period for the later half of the month and possibly into early June. Nevertheless, showers and some embedded thunderstorms are occurring this morning and this will likely continue at periods throughout the day. That doesn't mean today will be a total washout, but rain will likely fall for much of the morning hours and become more scattered this afternoon. A long band of precipitation extends into Oklahoma and is falling north of an old frontal boundary. Upper level disturbances riding near this boundary are serving as a focus for re-development of showers and thunderstorms. With extensive cloud cover and rain around all day, highs will be rather pleasant around 74 today.

A strong upper air disturbance will pass to our northeast by this evening and will turn the upper level flow more to the northwest. This will usher in cooler and drier conditions overnight, which will make for a very pleasant evening. A few clouds may continue to linger around, but I think we should drop to 59 in the morning.

More Sunshine, Very Warm

It's a muggy start to the morning as the temperature is hovering near 70. Today will be quite warm as we'll see less in the way of cloud cover and more in the way of sunshine. Still, a few low clouds may be around through the morning hours and cumulus clouds should develop in the afternoon. Very warm temperatures just above the surface will easily be mixed down this afternoon and we should top out around 90. If this verifies, it will be the first time we've hit 90 this year. The only saving grace to the warmth is that it will be windy this afternoon and will provide some relief if you'll be outside for an extended period of time. There is an extremely small chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, but I expect us to remain dry again today. There will be a few clouds around this evening and the models are mysteriously dropping dew points too low for my thinking. Instead, I'll forecast a low of 68 tomorrow morning. I should mention an outside shot at rain near sunrise tomorrow, but it's also extremely small and the best chances should be to our north.

A Few Clouds, Drier, and Warmer

It was a wild day yesterday as we started off the morning with a tornado warning. It rained until the early afternoon and then the sun popped out at the end of the day. It doesn't appear the latter will prove to be foreshadowing the sky conditions today, but the sun will make an appearance at times today - likely this afternoon. Our upper air pattern will remain zonal, but increasing heights will mean the active storm track will be displaced to our north and temperatures aloft will be warming. These two factors mean that we'll be drier and warmer today than the last couple of days. In fact, highs this afternoon will be quite warm as we will top out around 87 today. I can't completely rule out the chance for rain today, but I think we'll remain dry. Clouds will thicken up again tonight and it will remain muggy with a low near 68 tomorrow morning.

Partly Cloudy, Warmer

Cloud cover associated with a band of showers to our south kept temperatures in the lower 60s overnight. The rain band is currently located east of I-55 and between Highway 82 and I-20. A very subtle upper level disturbance is causing these showers, but we should remain on the dry side this afternoon. It appears as though clouds will thin out through the morning hours and should allow for enough sunshine to warm temperatures into the lower 70s later this morning. Cloud cover will likely increase this afternoon as an upper air disturbance approaches from the northwest. Still, we should be able to top out near 81 this afternoon.

The forecast for tonight is extremely tricky. It appears likely that a large convective complex will develop across Eastern Oklahoma tonight and move east southeast across Arkansas overnight. The upper level pattern remains more east to west over Mississippi, and I believe this will keep the convective complex across just to our north and west through sunrise. However, a chance of showers can't be completely ruled out early tomorrow morning. The low tomorrow morning will be a very muggy 67. I'll post an update later today if it appears that our upper level pattern will break down enough to allow the complex to move through our area.

Mostly Cloudy, Isolated Showers

A few great things happened over the weekend in the weather department. We managed to pick up 2-4" of rain in many locations, we dodged the severe weather, and the rain and clouds kept temperatures rather pleasant. A weak cold frontal passage can also be attributed to the cooler temperatures and this front remains to our south this morning. It has generally lost its frontal characteristics, but this boundary should remain to our south today. A passing upper air disturbance may generate enough lift for some isolated showers to develop this afternoon, but don't expect a washout by any means. With mostly cloudy skies and the possibility of showers today, the high temperature will likely top out around 75 this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight and the storm system responsible for the rain over the weekend will be well to our east. Slightly lower dew points are forecast to advect into the area tonight, but clouds will keep temperatures around 60 tomorrow morning. Fog is likely to develop tonight due to excess moisture near the surface and very low temperature/dew point spreads. Enjoy the cooler weather today because we'll warm up again by the weekend.

Scattered Storms This Afternoon

It's a muggy start again to the morning as temperatures are running in the mid 60s. Thick, persistent low clouds were the culprit and these could hang tough for a couple of more hours. I think skies may be partly cloudy by mid-morning, but clouds should be on the increase again by the late morning hours and into the afternoon as an old convective complex dives to the southeast. The storms across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas are associated with upper level energy and a quasi-stalled frontal boundary located across Central Missouri. The front will likely be located across Southern Missouri by this evening and we'll contend with waves of upper level energy throughout the day. Therefore, the chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm is decent this afternoon. Be aware of this if you'll be moving, swimming, or outside for any activities. Similar to yesterday, I think we will be able to top out near 80 this afternoon. It should remain cloudy tonight and the chance for a lingering shower will exist until about 9 p.m. Afterward, we should remain dry, but temperatures will be muggy again overnight. The low tomorrow morning will be near 65.