Tornado Watch

The SPC has issued a tornado watch for Southeast Arkansas, Northern and Central Louisiana, and Western and Central Mississippi until 5 p.m. this evening. This does not include Oktibbeha County, but expect a tornado watch to be issued later today for our area.


Currently: Supercell thunderstorms are developing in Central Louisiana and will pose a risk of tornadoes as they move to the northeast through the morning and early afternoon hours. These storms and new storms will move into Southwest Mississippi after noon. At that time, the tornado threat will increase across Southwest Mississippi as these storms move into an area with moderate instability and high wind shear.

Further northwest, rain has ended in Starkville, and we should remain dry until this afternoon. Temperatures are currently 57 under cloudy skies, but the dew point has jumped to 50 within the last hour. The temperature and dew point will continue climbing throughout the remainder of the morning. Winds remain strong out of the southeast with gusts up to 26 already this morning and these will only become stronger later today. Check back today for frequent updates on the severe weather situation. For mobile users, check out http://msuweather.mofuse.mobi/ for updates.

Warmer, Stormy

A strong cold front will pass through the state today and bring a good soaking rain and severe thunderstorms to many locations. The sun has made a brief appearance at times this morning, but most of the day should remain cloudy, but areas south of Starkville may see more sunshine throughout the day. An ongoing round of showers and thunderstorms that formed in Texas and Oklahoma is affecting a good part of Northern Mississippi, including the Starkville area. This rain should end after 9 a.m. and we may see a break until the afternoon. Temperatures should begin to rise after the rain exits the area and we'll likely make it up to 67 this afternoon. Outside of the rain and storms, it will also be breezy today with wind gusts over 30 mph at times!

The big show will hold off until tonight as the cold front approaches. Instability and wind shear will both be plenty high to support a cool season severe weather event. In fact, newest model data indicates slightly higher instability than previously expected. I still think damaging winds will be our biggest threat, but the higher degree of instability does slightly increase the potential for isolated tornadoes in our area. However, the linear nature of the storms tonight will probably offset the higher instability. Regardless, damaging winds are a distinct possibility with 50 knot winds located 2,000 feet above the surface, and it won't be very difficult to transport these higher winds down to the surface. The rain should end after frontal passage around 4 a.m. and temperatures will begin to drop. Temperatures should be in the mid 50s by sunrise but falling quickly into the 40s by the middle morning hours.

Please stay close to a source of weather information this evening. I'll have another update today, but for a more detailed severe weather discussion, see last evening's post.

Severe Weather Potential

Currently: A strong shortwave that was over the Desert Southwest this morning is now moving across West Texas. This shortwave has triggered the formation of an area of low pressure that is situated across Central Kansas. Extending northeast from the low is a warm front and a cold front extends southwest from the low pressure. In the warm sector ahead of the cold front and upper air shortwave, showers and thunderstorms broke out earlier this evening and are now affecting Oklahoma and Texas. These storms should increase in coverage and intensity in the soupier air mass of North Texas later this evening as they move eastward.

Closer to home, high clouds blanket the sky tonight and temperatures have only dropped into the lower 50s with a strong southeast wind. Increasing lower level moisture is evident in the latest infrared satellite images that show an extensive low stratus deck to our west. Dew points have also risen into the 60s over Southeast Texas with lower 50s up to the I-20 corridor.

Overnight: With clouds continuing to increase, strong southeast winds, and dew points climbing, don't look for temperatures to drop off much at all tonight. In fact, we may hover around 50 for most of the night. We should remain dry for most of the night, but with warm air advection and a weak shortwave approaching the area, there is a slight possibility that a few showers could develop late tonight. However, a strong cap will likely keep most showers very isolated in nature A more organized complex of storms will continue to develop and increase in intensity back in North Texas overnight and should be located in Western Mississippi near sunrise.

Tuesday Morning: Skies should be cloudy, but temperatures and dew points will increase after sunrise. Temperatures should be in the upper 50s with dew points in the lower 50s by late tomorrow morning. This should allow the line of storms in Western Mississippi to slowly intensify as the morning progresses. This activity may approach the Starkville area by the late morning hours. Outside of the rain and thunderstorms, south southeast winds will be rather strong tomorrow as the low level winds increase substantially through the day. In fact, 45 mph winds will be located just 1,000 feet above the surface tomorrow morning. I don't think we'll be able to mix these down to the surface, but wind gusts up to 25 mph could occur during the morning hours.

Tuesday Afternoon: Look for the line of showers and thunderstorms to continue moving through the area early tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s and dew points will reach the upper 50s by the early afternoon hours. I'm not expecting severe weather during this time frame for our area due to limited instability.

However, this will be a period of interest for areas in Southwest Mississippi. A lead shortwave will pass through this area during the morning hours and will likely create subsidence in its wake. If the subsidence is minimal, this could set the stage for a few supercells to develop across Southwest Mississippi by the afternoon where instability will be a little higher. The supercells would pose a heightened risk for tornadoes given the strength of the low-level shear forecast (0-1 km shear > 20 m s-1). This threat should be confined south of I-20.

Tuesday Night: Temperatures will actually rise through the evening as the storm system approaches and should top out around 65 before midnight. Dew points will also continue to rise into the lower 60s ahead of the main cold front. With our temperature and moisture increasing in the lower levels, heights will fall as the main trough approaches. This will allow instability to increase ahead of the cold front Tuesday night and set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms. Wind fields really strengthen again tomorrow night, and the thunderstorms may be able to transport these strong winds to the surface. I think damaging winds are the most likely threat for our area, but isolated tornadoes are certainly possible given the strong low level shear forecast. However, these storms will be in a line as opposed to isolated supercells. Regardless, with these cool season events, it doesn't take a lot of instability to create some big problems. The main threat of severe weather in the Starkville area will likely occur between 9 p.m. and midnight.

Rain and storms could continue through 4 a.m. when the cold front passes. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 50s and into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon behind the front. Definitely bring a coat to work or school on Wednesday!

I'll have much more on the severe weather threat tomorrow, but please keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night. Given the threat of a overnight severe weather event, it wouldn't be a bad idea to visit Wal-Mart or Radio Shack and pick up a weather radio. It's a great early family Christmas gift!

Some Clouds, Breezy, & Warmer

After remaining quite chilly for most of the last 7 days, we are in line for a couple of warm days as a ridging builds over the Southeast. This is in response to a big storm system that is currently located in the Desert Southwest. It will quickly move east and increase our rain chances tomorrow. In the meantime, a few clouds will mix with sunshine today and will limit our heating potential this afternoon. Regardless, it will be much warmer than the last few days with a high around 56. If there are less clouds than I expect, highs could be in the upper 50s. Lower level winds will increase today and with afternoon mixing, we could see some stronger winds today with gusts over 20 mph. Hold on to your hat this afternoon!

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening in advance of the storm system that is expected to be in Central Texas by tonight. With a strong southeast wind overnight, I think temperatures will hold steady and be around 49 in the morning. Tomorrow will be warmer and windier, but that usually spells trouble in Mississippi in December. Severe weather is a good bet tomorrow, but I think the best chance will be just south of our area. However, this will be a classic cool season severe weather event with damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes likely across Dixie Alley. More on the severe weather potential later...

Increasing Clouds, Warmer, Rain Late

A few passing high clouds and a south wind have kept temperatures from falling too far this morning at GTR, but areas that have seen light to calm winds are below freezing this morning. Despite the cold temperatures this morning, we'll rebound nicely this afternoon with our warmest day in almost a week. The big warm up is due to our next storm system organizing over the Four Corners. This system will dig into Texas before ejecting eastward into the Southeast later tonight. As the trough digs in, it will also amplify a weak ridge over the region and allow warm air advection to commence.

The big question about how warm we get today will be controlled by how quickly the cloud cover arrives. The main band of clouds is still back in Western Arkansas and Northeast Texas with clear skies ahead of the band. If this scenario plays out, we should have a longer duration with mostly sunny skies which will allow us to warm into the 60s. With more sunshine, I think we will mix higher than both the GFS and NAM suggest so I'll forecast a high of 64 today.

Skies will be cloudy by this evening and rain chances will increase early Thursday morning as a cold front approaches the area. The trend in the models has been to slow down the timing of the system and it looks like tomorrow morning will be the wet after the cold front passes in the early morning. Severe weather doesn't look likely for our area with this system arriving during the morning hours. With the frontal passage, temperatures will fall quickly and should be around 45 tomorrow morning.

Still Cool

Skies cleared long enough this morning for temperatures to hit 27, but with cold temperatures just above the surface, I it's possible we might stay in the 40s again today. However, model differences between the NAM and GFS 850 mb temperatures are 3 degrees and this will determine whether we stay in the 40s or warm into the 50s. I'll take a compromise between them and forecast a high of 50 this afternoon. Wind speeds between 5-10 mph will still make it feel like temperatures are in the 40s. Skies should remain clear tonight with decreasing wind speeds, but a south wind should keep us a few degrees warmer tonight. I'm still going to undercut guidance and forecast a low of 31. A nice warming trend begins tomorrow as our next storm system approaches. Rain chances will increase substantially by tomorrow evening and we could be dealing with a few thunderstorms.

Cloudy, Cold, & Blustery

Temperatures warmed up for a couple of days late last week, but we've turned sharply colder following a frontal passage on Sunday. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s and likely won't rise much today with low clouds and strong cold air advection. The main upper air low is lifting the little moisture that is currently around and causing some snow flurries mainly to our north. A few flurries are possible this morning around the area, but the best chance to see these would be up north. No travel problems will occur since temperatures are above freezing! Clouds will hang around this afternoon and the high will top out around 44. Clouds may still hang tough through most of the night and won't allow temperatures to drop as far as they could. With this in mind, I think the overnight low drops to 29. If skies are clear longer than forecast, lows could easily be 2-3 degrees colder. A big temperature swing is in store this week with highs in the 60s on Wednesday but turning colder by the end of the week.