One More Warm Day

It's a very cold start to the morning as the temperature dropped to 21 uner clear skies and calm winds. We'll warm up appreciably this afternoon as high pressure will quicky shift to our east and a southerly wind will component will ensue later this morning. Today should be mostly sunny, but a few stray clouds in advance of another cold front and upper air system could clip the area later this morning. If the clouds do clip us, they should move off the to east within an hour or two at the most. The high this afternoon should be able to reach 53. By tonight, a powerful arctic cold front will sweep through and will bring one of the coldest air masses in quite some time to the area. Despite the nature of the cold air associated with the front, models are insistent on keeping cloud cover around overnight. With this in mind, I'm going to undercut the models for the fact that they won't catch on to this air mass, but I don't think the bottom drops out. I'll forecast a low of 21 tomorrow morning -- still quite chilly though. Tomorrow will be extremely cold with high temperatures struggling to reach freezing and Friday morning temperatures could drop into the single digits! Brrr!

First Arctic Blast Arrives

Temperatures dropped to 30 this morning despite a cold front remaining to our west. The cold front that I discussed yesterday was expected to move through the area before now, but the timing has been slowed and it's still located just west of the I-55 corridor. The limited moisture that is associated with this front is being squeezed into a small band of very light precipitation that is just ahead of the front. Clouds will increase this morning as the front approaches from the west and some light rain will likely occur. The temperature profile will cool with the onset of the rain, and if the rain is still occurring near 1 PM, a changeover to a few snow flurries will be possible. Accumulations will not occur, but don't be surprised to see a few flakes on your lunch break. After the frontal passage, the sun will quickly return this afternoon, but temperatures will continue to be very cold. The afternoon high will be 40, but gusty northwest winds will make the temperature feel like it's below freezing.

Low clouds will linger for a short period tonight as a true arctic air mass arrives, but this will not keep temperatures from plummeting. Given the nature of this air mass, I am undercutting the model guidance and NWS a lot and forecasting a low of 19 tonight, especially with clear skies and winds forecast to be very light or calm. Bring your pets inside and bundle up if you'll be outside for any length tonight!

Increasing Clouds, Cool

Temperatures Saturday certainly spoiled everyone, but temperatures yesterday reaffirmed that this is indeed winter. I don't think you'll find anyone that will disagree with that this week. Temperatures are starting out chilly this morning around 27, but we should rebound upwards this afternoon as high pressure shifts to the east and allows for weak southerly winds. A dry cold front will also be approaching from the northwest and high clouds associated with it should arrive later this morning. Despite the southerly flow, these high clouds will effectively limit heating and we will only be able to reach 50 this afternoon. The cold front sweeps through in the early morning hours Tuesday, but extensive cloud cover will allow temperatures to reach 31 by sunrise tomorrow. A sneak peek of tomorrow shows a very cold day with highs likely only reaching 40 with a blusterly northwest wind.

2008 Severe Weather Warnings

I ran across an interesting blog that listed the top 20 National Weather Service offices by number of severe weather warnings issued in 2008. I was immediately struck by the office at the top of the list mainly because Starkville is served by this office. Jackson issued 181 more severe weather warnings that any other office in the country. I have noticed a tendency for Jackson to issue a large number of warnings, but I never imagined it would be this high. Two thoughts immediately come to mind -- was this an active severe weather year that justified the high number of warnings or are they over warning? The later really concerns me for a multitude of reasons, but I can only hope this is not the case.


Unquestionably, it was an active year for severe weather in Mississippi in 2008. In fact, preliminary data suggests that last year may have been the most active tornado year in recorded history for Mississippi. A total of 108 tornadoes would surpass the previous record of 99 set in 2005. However, I wanted to look more closely at the breakdown of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings issued last year. Of the 315 tornado warnings issued by the Jackson WFO, only 72 actually verified (23 percent). Unfortunately, that equates to a very high false alarm rate of 77 percent. Additionally, 21 percent of tornadoes that occurred in Jackson's CWA were not warned for last year. 823 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued by Jackson and 436 were verified (53 percent). A higher percentage (35%) of severe thunderstorms were not warned for.

These numbers could lead to a lengthy discussion about warnings. However, the simple fact is that we still do not know enough about severe weather, including tornadogenesis and tornado environments. While new advancements in technology have increased our understanding, we are still a long way from being able to accurately warn severe weather. Other issues are involved in the warning process besides meteorology, but more research and more advances in technology can only help the cause. I am a strong believer that more severe weather research needs to be conducted outside of Tornado Alley. There are several pieces of literature that suggest tornado environments in other areas of the country are significantly different than the Great Plains. How can forecasters in Jackson, Mississippi accurately forecast and warn for tornadoes based upon an understanding of characteristics of Great Plains tornado environments?

Don't Get Used to the Warmth

We managed to drop to freezing earlier this morning when the winds went calm, but they picked again and the temperature quickly rose above freezing. We'll be a long way from freezing this afternoon as southeasterly winds usher a warmer and more moist air mass ahead of a developing cold front. Despite very warm temperatures aloft that would support 70s with ideal mixing, we won't manage to mix deep enough to tap the reservoir of warmer temperatures. With mixing up to about 2,000 feet, we'll still be able to warm into the 60s today with full sunshine. Based on a similar environment to our west and southwest yesterday, I'll hedge my forecast high above guidance and forecast 64.

Clouds will increase in advance of a quick moving cold front tonight and rain will likely begin early tomorrow morning and should last through 9 AM. I don't expect any flooding rains given the speed of the system, but it wouldn't take a lot of water to create additional problems. Temperatures will remain steady overnight around 51. Temperatures won't drop off much tomorrow even despite frontal passage, but Sunday looks much colder as an upper air trough moves through.

Sunny and Warmer

Clouds definitely played havoc with the temperatures overnight. Just after midnight, temperatures were around 39, but clouds moved in and the temperature actually rose overnight. In fact, temperatures are currently around 46 with clear skies. Skies should remain clear for the remainder of the day, and sunshine and warmer temperatures will be welcome to dry out the water logged ground. With temperatures starting warmer than expected this morning, I'm going to go slightly higher than guidance for our afternoon high. Expect a high around 59 this afternoon. Temperatures will fall quickly tonight with clear skies, but this will not be an ideal radiational cooling setup given the slightly higher winds forecast overnight (3-5 mph) and the amount of soil moisture. Therefore, I'll forecast a low of 34 tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow with 60s expected, but a return to colder weather will arrive for the weekend.

Where Is The Sun?

After an extended break from the blog, I'm back in the saddle for daily updates now that the spring semester has begun. The fire hydrant-like rain fall that fell for the past couple of days has exited well to the east of us this morning. The main upper air trough associated with the rain will swing through the area this morning and could cause some drizzle at times to our north, but we should remain dry in Starkville. The talk of the day will be the return of sunshine late this morning and early afternoon. In fact, broken clouds are visible outside this morning, but full sunshine will occur later today. It seems like eons ago that the sun shone, but I can promise the sun will make an appearance today. The timing of the sun makes the high temperature forecast a little tricky because an earlier return could allow for warmer temperatures. Judging from infrared satellite imagery, it appears the back edge of the cloud cover is near Greenwood, MS and this would suggest a return of the sun later this morning. Therefore, I'll be optimistic and forecast a high of 54 this afternoon.

High clouds will quickly approach the area tonight in advance of another upper air disturbance and this will play havoc with morning lows. Timing the exit of the clouds will determine we drop into the upper 30s or stay in the 40s. Guidance suggests that the clouds may exit just before sunrise and this may allow us to drop to 38 tonight. A warming trend is in store for the remainder of the week before another cold front arrives for the weekend. A big blast of arctic air is poised to affect the area next week, and I'll have more on this later.