Partly Cloudy, Warm; Great Weekend Weather

Southerly winds and a few clouds helped keep temperatures in the lower 50s overnight. Today is shaping up to be somewhat similar to yesterday in that low clouds may be around for much of the morning before afternoon sunshine dominates. There will be more sunshine at times this morning than compared to yesterday so that should allow for slightly warmer temperatures. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 76 today. Low cloud cover looks to increase again this evening so expect another warm evening. Given that we seem to be warmer at night than guidance suggests with clouds and winds, I'll forecast a low of 57 tomorrow morning.

The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice so get outside and enjoy the weather if you can. Saturday will feature morning clouds and afternoon sun with highs in the upper 70s. There may be a few more clouds throughout the day on Sunday, but I still feel that temperatures will be in the mid 70s. A weak disturbance will be passing to our northwest by this time, and the chance of a shower can't completely be ruled out Sunday afternoon. It's possible the air conditioner might be turned on for the first time of the year this weekend!

***Remember to set your clocks forward by 1 hour before you go to sleep Saturday night to account for Daylight Saving Time. That's right, you'll lose an hour of sleep this time!***

Mostly Cloudy, Mild

A few clouds and persistent south winds kept temperatures in the upper 40s for much of the night. An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched over the area this afternoon and southerly winds will allow for warm temperatures this afternoon. The only fly in the ointment appears to be a low stratus deck that has developed with the increase in low level moisture. Forecasting the evolution of this cloud cover will be the key to this afternoon's high. Forecast soundings show these clouds will likely persist for much of the day but should gradually raise in height this afternoon. With this in mind, I'll forecast a high of 68 his afternoon. Clouds may gradually thin some overnight, but mostly cloudy skies will still dominate. However, south winds will remain strong again this evening so I'll shoot above guidance and forecast a low of 52.

Mostly Sunny, Warming Trend Begins

Skies cleared at times overnight and allowed the temperature to drop just below freezing. This clearing trend should continue for most of the day and we should see mostly sunny skies. The combination of a building upper level ridge, warm air advection, and southerly winds will spell much warmer temperatures today areawide. I'll forecast the afternoon high to top out around 61. An upper air disturbance will ridge along the ridge and should increase high level cloud cover again this evening so I'll forecast a low of 41. Enjoy the warm weather because it should hang around for the next several days.

New Severe Thunderstorm Warning Criteria

Before or by July 1, 2009, NWS offices in the Central Region will upgrade the criteria for the issuance of severe thunderstorm warnings. The current criteria is based on winds of 58 mph or greater and hail 3/4" or larger. The 58 mph or greater criterion will remain, but the hail criterion will be increased to 1" or larger. I think this is an excellent decision, especially for the areas in this part of the country that experience large hail. I feel this new criteria is beneficial for a multitude of reasons, but most importantly, this will reduce the number of severe thunderstorm warnings and prevent the public from becoming desensitized to severe thunderstorm warnings.

Other regions are discussing the possibility of following suit, but I'm sure they will wait until public feedback can be collected. I strongly believe that this should NOT be a nationwide policy because hail impacts from one region to another may be interpreted differently. For example, a resident in Kansas would likely not feel threatened by 3/4" hail. Another resident in Maine may feel more impacted by the same size hail since it occurs much less frequently. Similar to winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings, I feel each region should set their own criteria for severe thunderstorm warnings. However, this does pose considerable questions with regards to severe thunderstorm research and should be discussed for quite some time (i.e. implementation of the Enhanced Fujita Scale).

Click below to listen to a webcast detailing the new criteria:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/One_Inch_Hail_Podcast.wmv

A Few Clouds This Afternoon, Still Cool

It's a very cold start this morning as temperatures dropped to 25 under clear skies, light winds, and dry air. The majority of the cloud cover on the backside of a trough stayed to our west overnight, but it appears as though some of these high clouds may arrive early this afternoon. These clouds may have a minor impact on the high, but they will likely have a bigger role in dictating tomorrow morning's temperature. The air mass over us today will be slightly warmer than yesterday so expect highs to be about 5 degrees or so warmer this afternoon. In fact, I'll forecast a high of 51. There will likely be more clouds this evening and this will keep temperatures from plummeting. However, the thickness of the clouds will govern whether we drop in the upper 20s or stay in the lower 30s. The clouds to our northwest over Kansas appear to be fairly thick, and this keeps me inclined to forecast a low of 31 tomorrow morning. The big warming trend begins tomorrow with highs in the 60s and then 70s forecast through the end of the work week.

Starkville Snow

Sunny, Chilly

In my eight and a half years of living in Starkville, this past weekend will go down in my books as the wildest weather weekend I've experienced. From severe weather and flooding on Friday and Saturday morning to snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Yesterday's snow was aided by a deformation zone that move through, which provided the burst of heavier precipitation. Despite the warm, wet ground, the heavy snow eventually stuck and resulted in accumulations around 2" in most places. As is usually the case with late season upper level low events, the snow quickly melted by late Sunday morning. We'll now turn our attention to much warmer weather this week.

However, before we do that, we'll have to first endure a couple of cool days. Although the computer models don't show anything in the way of cloud cover today, there are a few mid and upper level clouds being accompanied by a strong jet streak to our north. I feel that most of the day will be mostly sunny, but a few passing clouds will prevent full sunshine. This shouldn't play a significant impact on high temperatures today so I'll forecast a high of 45. Skies should be clear by this evening and it looks like we'll experience decent radiational cooling conditions. Therefore, I'll forecast a low of 24 tomorrow morning.