Some Clouds, Warmer

High cirrus clouds associated with a strong jet streak streamed in early this morning and prevented temperatures from dropping too far. In fact, after hitting 30 earlier, temperatures have since warmed with the arrival of the cirrus canopy. These high clouds will be around through the day and make the high temperature forecast a bit difficult. With even warmer low-level temperatures today than yesterday, I think we should be able to manage 62 despite the high clouds, but I'll undercut guidance and the NWS. The clouds should be gone by this evening, but moisture slowly returns in advance of our next storm system. Lows overnight should drop to around 36. A sneak peek of the forecast for Thanksgiving looks nice for the most part with temperatures in the upper 60s. However, rain chances will return Thursday night and last through Friday.

Pleasant Weather

Temperatures are below freezing this morning, but that won't lost very long as we'll rebound nicely despite the cold frontal passage. While a cold front did pass through yesterday, the core of its cold air was shunted to our east. That means that temperatures aloft still support temperatures very close to yesterday's highs. I'll go a degree lower than yesterday and forecast a high of 60 today. Skies will be sunny this afternoon and give way to crystal clear skies this evening. With dew points forecast to drop into the upper 20s with light winds tonight, I think we'll drop to 28 by tomorrow morning. Even warmer temperatures are likely tomorrow and Thanksgiving. Our next chance of rain looks to accompany another cold front late Thursday night and Friday.

Rainy Start to Week

After an unexpected cloudy weekend, we're socked in with clouds and rain around the area this morning. This weather is expected and is the result of a cold front that currently stretches from Illinois through Northeast Texas. The trough that will accompany this cold front will push the front through the area this afternoon. Ahead of and just behind this front, showers will be likely, especially between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. Make sure you bring an umbrella today because we could receive up to 0.5" of rain. Temperatures won't rise too much today, and in fact, we should only top out around 59 early this afternoon with temperatures dropping steadily after 3 p.m. Skies should clear this evening, but with a wet ground and the wind staying up, we should drop to 35 degrees tomorrow morning.

The main cold pocket in this trough will bypass us to the east so it doesn't look like temperatures will be significantly colder tomorrow. In fact, they may only be a tad cooler than today. A warming trend begins Wednesday and Thanksgiving looks mild in advance of another cold front due in here on Friday. Rain may be possible late Thursday night, but the best chance will be on Friday. Some storms are certainly possible Friday, and I'll be keeping a close eye on this system as we head through the week.

A Taste of Winter

Temperatures are below freezing this morning and feel even colder with northwest winds between 5 and 10 mph. These winds should subside this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes, but it's still going to quite chilly in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage. Despite full sunshine, we'll only manage to hit 46 today. Stronger winds this morning may keep wind chills into the 30s, but the wind chill shouldn't be much of a factor this afternoon as the winds decrease. By tonight, a strong 1036 mb high pressure will be located just to our north. With clear skies, very dry air, and light winds, it will be another excellent radiational cooling setup and we'll experience a hard freeze. I don't think we'll realize our full potential with winds forecast to be 2-5 mph overnight, but I still think we bottom out near 22 tomorrow morning. Nonetheless, it will be a very cold start to the morning. A warming trend is in store for the weekend as high pressure slides east and turns the winds back to the southeast. Highs will climb back into the 50s Saturday and possibly lower 60s Sunday. The weekend will be dry, but a cold front approaches the area by Monday and increases rain chances.

Up and Down Weather

The temperature roller coaster continues today ahead of a southward moving cold front. Ahead of the front, we should warm up nicely later this afternoon with any mixing. Very warm air just above the surface should allow highs to top out around 61 this afternoon. There is very little moisture for the cold front to work with, but you may notice a few high clouds associated the front tonight. Otherwise, the only way you'll know a front has passed is to experience the temperature difference tomorrow. Another reinforcing cold shot will occur in the wake of the front, but the coldest morning won't be tomorrow. Still, it looks likes we will drop to near 29 tomorrow morning despite gusty north winds. If you're going to be outside at all tonight, expect temperatures to feel much colder than they are given the strong winds Tomorrow will be very cold with highs struggling to reach 50 and then the coldest night of the year is on tap. We could be looking at lows in the lower 20s for Saturday morning! More on that tomorrow

Thanksgiving and Beyond Forecast

The last several days have been a roller coaster of temperature swings with one or two warm days followed by a couple of cool days. Reinforcing cold fronts have been responsible for this, and this pattern looks to continue for the next 6 days. The upper air pattern flattens out by the weekend which will bump temperatures upward, but this will be short lived as another cold front and trough dip down into the South early next week. The latest model guidance indicates that the cold front will swing through the area Monday and bring us a decent shot of rain. Behind the front, I think we transition back to colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday. With the source region of the Canadian air mass originating from Manitoba, I think temperatures will be cold but not significantly cold. If the source region were further east, I would expect even colder air given that temperatures in Ontario and Quebec are 1-4 standard deviations below normal. Standard deviations in Manitoba are 0 to 1 below normal so this should allow colder air but nothing record setting. Still, I wouldn't discount the possibility that highs next Tuesday don't make it out of the 40s.




Given the near neutral North Atlantic Oscillation, the cold air won't have a long residence time in our area. In fact, our upper air pattern flattens out by Wednesday and especially for Thanksgiving as the trough shifts east. Correspondingly, temperatures should moderate by Wednesday and could easily be in the 60s for Turkey Day. Once the warmth returns next week, I think we actually keep it around for several days as a ridge builds over the Southeast ahead of a trough over the Desert Southwest. Using the forecast trough/ridge pattern in Eastern Asia on Friday, I feel somewhat confident that a ridge sets up over the Southeast late next week and into the weekend. This should allow us to really warm up and for return flow to be established for a few days before the trough swings eastward. This could be setting the stage for a stormy end to the month or beginning to December.

Sunny And Warmer

It's a very cold start to the morning with temperatures around 25, but we should rebound remarkably later this afternoon. The large diurnal temperature range that we will experience today can be attributed to the dry air we have in place as evident by dew points in the lower 20s. High pressure is entrenched over us this morning, but it will shift eastward today and turn the winds to the southeast. This will enable afternoon highs to top out around 58. However, if we mix higher in the atmosphere than forecast, we may be 2-3 degrees warmer as very warm air aloft will be present this afternoon. Tonight should be cold again with mostly clear skies and light winds. Since models are suggesting the possibility of a few clouds and winds being slightly higher, I think we drop to 33 tomorrow morning.