Temperatures Remaining Below Normal

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning as a result of an approaching upper level disturbance. The strongest forcing associated with the shortwave trough will stay well to our south. Although weak pieces of upper level energy will be moving across our area, the air is very dry in the lowest 5,000 feet. Therefore, I think we should remain dry today. With extensive mid-level cloud cover, highs will continue to be well below normal as we top out around 54. Skies should slowly begin to clear after 9 p.m. With light winds and dry air in place, temperatures will be chilly again tomorrow morning with lows near 31.

Saturday and Sunday look to be transition days before our next storm system arrives on Monday. A slight warm up is expected Sunday, but the suppressed storm track supports below normal temperatures. A few clouds will be possible tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50s. Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 50s. Our next chance of rain will be late Monday night and Tuesday. With the recent upturn in the SOI and the blocking across Canada weakening, I expect a brief warm up after March 5.

Sunny, Cold

It's very cold this morning with temperatures running in the mid 20s. A messy upper air pattern will begin to evolve today as a strong trough pivots over the Eastern Seaboard and a shortwave trough ejects out of the Four Corners. Weak energy will emanate from the trough in the West and move in our general direction tonight. We should get through the daylight hours with an abundant supply of sunshine, but it will be chilly as a Canadian high pressure dominates. Highs should top out around 49 this afternoon, which will be 15 degrees below normal. A few high clouds will increase before midnight in advance of subtle upper level disturbances approaching the area. However, the strength of this air mass should still allow lows to dip down to 28. If you're tired of the cold weather, hang tight because it looks like a warmer weather pattern will develop in the next 10 days.

Light Rain, Flurries Possible Overnight

Colder air has filtered into the state as a northern stream trough digs into the Mid South. Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the southern stream will approach from the west. The southern stream disturbance will be the one to watch because it is generating a large swath of wintry precipitation across Texas. We won't have to deal with any precipitation issues during the day. Cloud cover will be an issue today, and it appears that low clouds are slowly eroding across Pickens County. The erosion is trying to work its way to the east, and it's possible that we may see some broken clouds this morning. However, clouds will thicken again this afternoon in advance of the southern stream disturbance. Highs should top out around 53 this afternoon if we can get a few peeks of sun this morning.

By this evening, most of the precipitation that is currently over Texas will weaken as it moves eastward. However, as the northern and southern stream disturbances begin to phase, some light precipitation may develop after 3 a.m. Forecast soundings suggest that a mix of rain and some snow flurries will be possible, but no travel problems are anticipated since surface temperatures will remain above freezing. In fact, lows tomorrow morning will be near 37. A chilly and active weather pattern looks to continue for the next week plus.

Cloudy, Slightly Cooler

Yesterday's high of 72 was the warmest temperature since November 15, but don't get used to the warmth because cold air is poised to return to the state this week. A cold front swept through the state earlier this morning and was accompanied by some light to moderate rainfall. Although we experienced a frontal passage, temperatures will not be extremely cold due to the Pacific origin of the air mass. However, extensive cloud cover in the wake of the frontal passage will ensure that highs top out around 59 this afternoon. Clouds don't look to break up very much, if at all, tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten after 9 p.m. and winds could gust over 20 mph at times through sunrise. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 39. Enjoy today because it could be the last mild day for possibly a week and a half. Starting Wednesday, highs will be much below normal for the foreseeable future.

Mostly Sunny, Comfortable

Today will seem like a heat wave compared to recent temperatures, but temperatures today will still be slightly below normal for this time of the year. A subtle disturbance moving out of the Gulf of Mexico is creating some cloud cover to out south and west. Some of this cloud cover, mainly high cirrus clouds, will arrive later this morning, but it should not have a major impact on afternoon highs. The main weather influence today will be a surface high shifting to our east, which will allow highs to top out around 60. Skies should be mostly clear tonight with lows dipping down to 31.

On Saturday, a disturbance digging into the Southwest U.S. will pump a ridge over the southern Plains and Southeast. This should result in a full blown heat wave across the region this weekend. Saturday looks excellent with just a few clouds in the afternoon. Highs should be in the mid 60s. Clouds will return Sunday in advance of a developing storm system, but I think we'll be dry through the daylight hours. Highs should top out in the mid 60s. Rain will return late Sunday night. Colder air will return Tuesday with highs below normal again, but this air mass does not appear to be as cold as recent air masses.

Sunny, Slightly Warmer

As our upper level flow becomes more zonal through the day, temperatures will moderate, but highs will still remain below normal. High pressure situated over the Deep South will promote strong subsidence and an abundant supply of sunshine. Highs should top out around 56 this afternoon. With high pressure almost directly over the area tonight, temperatures will be primed to drop quickly once the sun sets. Lows tomorrow morning will be near 26.

Mostly Sunny, Slightly Warmer

Upper level disturbances continue to rotate around the deep trough over the Northeast U.S. When the uplift associated with these disturbances encounters some lingering low level moisture, low clouds develop. A few passing clouds will be possible this morning, but we should be mostly sunny this afternoon. As the aforementioned trough moves northeast, low level temperatures will slowly warm. This warming aloft should correspond to slightly warmer temperatures at the surface today, but still well below normal (normal high is 61). Highs should top out around 50 this afternoon. Winds may also be breeze this afternoon with gusts between 15 and 20 mph. Another weak upper level disturbance will approach the area before midnight, so a few passing low clouds may be possible. Otherwise, skies should be clear overnight with dry air and clear skies. As a result, temperatures will be very chilly tomorrow with lows around 26.