High Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a portion of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa in a high risk of severe weather, including the potential for strong to violent tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. One concern I had last night was that overnight convection could muddy the convective scenario today. Fortunately, that scenario is quite clear at this point as that convection weakened and is quickly moving off to the east into Iowa. The overnight convection was not far enough south to effectively block moisture return to northern Nebraska, and in fact, dew points in the lower 60s are just north of I-80.

Persistent strong south winds today should usher in additional moisture, and it appears that upper 60s and near 70 degree dew points are likely over eastern Nebraska this afternoon. Low-level stratus should dissipate late this morning, and temperatures should warm into the 80s with strong sunshine. This warm, moist air in the low-levels will be located beneath by very cold air aloft and will set the stage for a rather unstable environment this afternoon with MLCAPE values over 2,000 J kg-1.

As the shortwave moves out of the Rockies and into the central Plains later this afternoon, convection should begin to erupt in central Nebraska and northern Kansas. Due to the strong deep layer shear in place, these storms will quickly evolve into supercells with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. As the afternoon transitions to evening, the threat of significant tornadoes will likely increase as the wind fields and low-level shear all strengthen.

From a chasing standpoint, I've still got two target areas still. Knowledge says stay close to the warm front in northern Nebraska, but my gut is telling me southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. There is more more moisture and strong instability, good wind fields, a close proximity to the surface low, slightly weaker uplift, and high low-level shear in the southern areas. All of these factors are probably why I am thinking south at this point. I'll have pictures and a recap later this evening.