May 10 Chase

We had only one goal on this day: see a tornado. This was the day we had been looking forward to for nearly a week. A warm, humid air mass would be in place as a strong trough was forecast to eject into the middle Mississippi Valley. Derek, Tim, Todd, and I were eyeing the warm front as an initial target as low-level wind shear would be maximized very close to the front. This front was forecast to move as far north as the I-40 corridor, but we felt convection north of the front may retard its progress. Combined with a very favorable thermodynamic environment, we felt southeast Arkansas would be a good place to begin.

We left Starkville just after 10 and set sail for Winona to meet with Todd. We transferred our stuff into Todd's truck and then headed for Monticello. Before we got there, we did a quick meso analysis and everything still looked great for supercells later that afternoon. In fact, the SPC already outlooked much of Arkansas in a tornado watch through early evening. Furthermore, convection north of the warm front had slowed its progress northward, so we felt quite confident as we moved west.

Confidence quickly turned so slight caution when the 1800 UTC soundings from Little Rock and Jackson showed an impressive cap and warm 700 mb temperatures (>9 C). This was not something we had anticipated would be a problem, but we still were optimistic.

We arrived in Monticello just after 2 and camped out at a Holiday Inn. A certain set of circumstances took us into the hotel where we were greeted by a friendly clerk. We explained what we were doing, and she offered us the lobby for as long as we needed. We obliged, fired our computers up, and did a meso analysis. The thermodynamic environment looked great, but other things had changed.


The 700 mb temps had not cooled down, and in fact, were warming on the subsidence side of a short wave. Additionally, the earlier convection north of the warm front had lifted north and east, and the warm front made a northward charge as well. Not too far north, but we probably weren't close enough if supercells did develop. I still don't know why we didn't go further north with our original plan to stay on the warm front. Nonetheless, we were making ourselves at home in the lobby of the hotel and watching The Weather Channel.

4 o'clock came and went. 4:30. 5:00. Still no signs of storms or towers, for that matter. Another meso analysis revealed the same situation. Good thermodynamics. Warm 700 mb temperatures. And a warm front still on a northward march. Move north. Rather, we still held out hope that storms would fire in our area.


Just after 5:30, I went outside and noticed a few cumulus were making an attempt to go up. Would they be strong enough to break the cap, I thought? 30 minutes later revealed a resounding no. In fact, all clouds had essentially vanished minus a thick cirrus deck. Meanwhile, storms were quickly developing west of Hot Springs along the warm front. We had a decision to make. 6:30 was our cut-off to go north or go home. We decided we were out here so let's head north and see what happens. Not before the nice hotel clerk baked us some delicious cookies!

As we drove north to Pine Bluff, we noticed the storm was quickly intensifying and taking on the appearance of a supercell. Within a few minutes, not only was the storm a supercell, but it was prompting tornado warnings just southwest of Little Rock. In fact, the tight gate-to-gate couplet confirmed that a tornado warning was clearly justified. The supercell also appeared close to the warm front, so we knew the threat of a tornado was higher than normal. As we got to Pine Bluff, we headed northeast on Highway 79 toward Stuttgart.

We were quickly catching the storm and soon the base became visible. We were instantly drawn to the wide, low hanging cloud in front of us. It was a wall cloud, but something else was snaking down from the wall cloud. It was a funnel cloud! The slender looking tube was 3/4 of the way to the ground and looked like it had just lifted. We probably missed a tornado by no more than a minute. Seconds later, the weather radio confirmed our suspicions when spotters reported a tornado.

The next problem we quickly discovered was that we had no roads to navigate around the storm. We had take Highway 152 and then catch Highway 165 to De Witt. The storm was moving at 45 mph, so we quickly lost our vantage, coupled with the fact that the sun had set. Our radar still confirmed the supercell was nasty, and the warnings indicated that another tornado damaged areas in southeast Stuttgart. We took Highway 1 from De Witt to Marvel and ran across the damage path of the storm. Mostly small limbs, but there was a tree or two fallen on the road.

Navigating through this and a blinding rain took us farther from the storm. When we got on Highway 49, we quickly made up ground on the storm now in northwest Mississippi. We crossed back into Mississippi, but we had a decision to make at the crossroads of 49 and 61. Go south and avoid the storm, or take 316 and try to punch ahead of the circulation. We decided the south route was safer, so we took Highway 61 to Clarksdale. By this time, the storm had crossed I-55 and entered the thick pine forests. We didn't want to follow, so we called off the chase at this point and headed back to Winona to get my car.

This was certainly not a disappointing day, but it showed how lucky you sometimes have to be to see a tornado. I guess we were disappointed that we didn't meet our goal. After the front passed, a large trough was forecast to settle across the eastern half of the country for several days and would inhibit large severe outbreaks for the foreseeable future.