Dolly Near Landfall

Hurricane Dolly underwent a deepening phase overnight as the pressure dropped from 982 mb to 967 mb. Correspondingly, maximum sustained winds have increased to 95 mph as of 8 a.m. It appears that Dolly moved away from a cooler pocket of water and is now moving over a very small increase in heat potential associated with a loop eddy. Also, it can be argued that the outflow in the southern quadrant of Dolly has improved slightly and may be assisting the current deepening phase. Dolly is moving slowly (8 mph) and is still a few hours from making landfall. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible up until landfall, and Dolly could be packing winds of 100-105 mph at landfall.

Visible satellite this morning indicates the presence of an eye in Dolly, and reconnaissance reports indicate that the eye is about 20 nautical miles wide. Brownsville's base reflectivity shows intense convection surrounding the eye wall, especially in the north and southwest quadrants.


Given the slow speed of Dolly and the possibility of Dolly moving slower after landfall, flooding will become a very large concern. The largest concern may be the rain produced in the mountainous terrain of Mexico that will runoff into the Rio Grande valley. It wouldn't be surprising to see some rainfall totals between 10-15" after all is said and done. I'll post another update later this morning.