National View

The active weather will be found in a stronger band of westerlies that will migrate across the Upper Midwest today. Severe storms are possible from Kansas to Wisconsin with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Heavy rains will be possible again in advance of a cold front across Florida. More thunderstorms will also be possible in the Desert Southwest, especially for Arizona and New Mexico. I'm sure they will provide some picturesque views for photographers in that part of the country. The heat will be cranked up for much of the nation today with just about everywhere experiencing 80s and 90s. There should not be many extremes, but an expansive area of the country will be quite warm. Even parts of Alaska will get in on the warmth with 70s expected in several areas of the state. With the lack of a significant trough, cool air is going to be difficult to find today. In fact, you'll have to look along the extreme northern fringe of the lower 48 to find comfortable temperatures.

The tropics remain more active than normal. Tropical Storm Bertha has eclipsed the old record for longest-lived July storm (12 days). Bertha continues to churn in the Atlantic to the northeast of Bermuda, and she will continue for several more days. It's likely Bertha will regain hurricane status again as she moves southeast over warmer ocean water.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a healthy looking tropical wave is about 930 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. SSTs in the lower 80s and a lack of significant dry air are positive environmental factors for strengthening. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate was a 2.0, which places this wave on the borderline for being upgraded to a depression. However, wind shear is on the moderate side (15-20 knots). Still, the environment appears favorable for continued development as the system moves off to the east over the next few days. If this wave does remain intact and develops, it's possible that it could threaten the U.S. at some point next week.

Another healthy looking wave is behind it, but it's still at a relatively low latitude for development. This may bear watching if it can move slightly more northward because it would have warm water and low shear in its path. The easterly wave train doesn't appear to be settling down anytime soon with other waves poised to moved off the coast of Africa in the next week.