No, It's July

Scanning this afternoon's Atlantic basin satellite, you might think that the calendar month is September. After all, there were three named tropical systems earlier today. Bertha has since become extratropical, Cristobal is located just off the North Carolina coast, and Dolly looks poised to strengthen quickly before landfall in the Yucatan late tonight or early Monday morning.

There's nothing left to say about Bertha. She was classified as extratropical this morning and should pack a wallop on Iceland on Monday and Tuesday. She will be remembered as the longest lived tropical cyclone in the month of July (17 days).

Cristobal is very near the Outer Banks of North Carolna and has weakened a little today. It appears as though dry air may have been entrained into the center and this will hinder any strengthening until the air moistens beyond current levels. It's common for tropical systems near a large landmass to entrain dry air. Cristobal shouldn't pose a large threat to the U.S. and will begin to move away from the mainland late tonight.

The bigger story is Tropical Storm Dolly, which bypassed tropical depression stage altogether before being upgraded this morning. The Air Force Reconaissance finally found a closed circulation this morning. Since then, deep convection is clustering near the center of Dolly and this could be a sign of a quick intensification period before landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Monday morning.

It's a good thing Dolly does not have a long period of time over the very warm, deep waters of the Carribean because she could easily become a major hurricane within a short time given the thermodynamic and dynamic environment over the Western Caribbean. SSTs near Dolly are near 85 F, wind shear is very weak (5-10 knots), there is sufficient moist air surrounding the tropical cyclone, the tropical cyclone heat potential is high, and Dolly will be crossing over the Loop Current before landfall. All of these factors favor rapid intensification, and it would not be surprising to see Dolly near hurricane strength at landfall.

After landfall, Dolly should spend almost a day over the Yucatan Peninsula, which will weaken the system. The biggest question mark, which will determine the strength at second landfall, will be how much of the inner core is destroyed over land. Typically, developing cyclones are not as affected by land as mature hurricanes. If this holds true, Dolly should still have a good inner core when she emerges into the Bay of Campeche. When this happens, Dolly should strengthen and could easily become a hurricane again before reaching the Mexico or Texas coast late next week.

The thermodynamic environment over the Southern Gulf of Mexico is not as impressive as it is over the Western Caribbean. There is warmer water, but it is a little more shallow than the Caribbean. The warm water is still deep enough to support a quickly strengthening tropical cyclone. Look for Dolly to be a strengthening system at landfall, whether she is a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. I think she could possibly be a Category 2 hurricane at the second landfall. I think this is entirely possible if Dolly's inner core remains intact after passage over land and given an expected residency time of nearly 3 days in the Gulf of Mexico.