Judging by satellite images this morning, it is now apparent that the subtropical ridge has been breached and has caused Fay to turn more to the NNW. Model guidance is now beginning to cluster along the western coast of Florida, but let me throw out a word of caution about that. Any small deviation to the left of Fay will cause the landfall to be much further north along the coast.
The satellite presentation of Fay is drastically improving, and it appears that Fay will be poised to undergo intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. I promise I'll have an update later this morning.
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