Want to see something really interesting? Check out the image below that shows the GFS ensemble tracks of Fay. Now go check the latest
satellite loop of Fay and compare the two. I don't think the scenario laid out by the GFS ensemble members, which have shown remarkable consistency in this scenario, is completely bogus. In fact, I'm beginning to seriously consider whether Fay does stay much further south than guidance given the obvious strength of the ridge and possibly runs between the Yucatan and Cuba or grazes over Western Cuba. Either way would be potentially catastrophic given the expected ocean thermodynamic environment, low wind shear, and high ambient moisture surrounding Fay.
Let me stress again that I'm still not changing my forecast until I see whether Fay stays south of Cuba, which appears to becoming more likely, or moves across Eastern Cuba. 12Z guidance should be rolling in soon so I'll have an update later this morning.
Posts
3 comments:
I love how the Operational member is to the right of every perturbation in the suite. It is ridiculous. There really is no reason it should jump to the NW so fast as the ridge develops more and more. Who knows, maybe the thing won't even get touched by the S/W and will just slam the Yucatan and Mexico. But I still have fears for the Central Gulf and the thought of what Fay will do if it touches that environment.
I was wondering the same thing earlier this morning. However, now all of the other models are pulling it further north and the storm hasn't moved that far south. So...maybe the operational will get it right. Very interesting though.
Thanks for both of your comments. Renny, I should have waited a few more hours until the 06Z suite of ensembles came in because they shifted it much harder right. Oh well. I'm still not buying the track that far right, but that's why they get paid the big bucks. :-)
Post a Comment