Greg Nordstrom has posted a good discussion on applying the teleconnection of wave patterns in Asia to the United States. Check it out if you want to learn how to improve your long range forecasting skills.
Fay made its third landfall earlier this afternoon on the eastern coast of Florida. Fay is also beginning to move west very slowly as the ridge begins to build in. What's really crazy is that Fay may actually make a fourth landfall in the Florida Panhandle tomorrow night! Model guidance has slowly shifted the track of Fay a bit further south, and it appears more likely that she may briefly move over the Gulf of Mexico. With such a slow moving tropical system, this is exactly what the doctor ordered for the drought-plagued South!
Many people don't realize that the South is not as wet as you would expect. A good portion of the South's total annual rainfall (~25%) comes from tropical systems. Whenever the South experiences a prolonged drought, you can probably bet that tropical activity has been minimal. After 2005, most areas in the South have seen very little tropical activity (2006 and 2007), and it's no coincidence that severe drought conditions have been common in many places the last few years. It does appear that is changing this year, but the tropical rains may come with a steep price.
I'll have more later this evening...
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4 comments:
"A good portion of the South's total annual rainfall (~25%) comes from tropical systems. Whenever the South experiences a prolonged drought, you can probably bet that tropical activity has been minimal."
I honestly didn't know the South got about 25% of their rain from tropical systems... That's pretty cool.. And it make sense when you think about the drought across the deep south over the last few years matching up with zero tropical activity!!! Interesting stuff buddy!!!
A 4th landfall...and possible 5th if you look at the forecast track! I wonder what storm produced the most landfalls along the US coast?
This storm is out of control. Seen the 00Z Canadian for 94L? WOW! It looks like a black hole in the Atlantic
Yea, that model run was nuts. I have a quick question. Where do you get your MJO information? I keep hearing a conducive MJO for the next few weeks but charts I use aren't showing it.
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