Tropical Storm Fay Develops

Aircraft data indicates that Tropical Storm Fay has officially developed. The newest suite of model guidance has again shifted the track a little more left. This is more in line with my previous thinking, but I'm worried I may have to shift my track even further left given the current progression of Fay.



This brings up an interesting dilemma. South Florida is very narrow from east to west (~50 miles). Given the expected motion of Fay as it approaches Florida, even a small shift of the track to the west could mean a landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (as suggested by the 12Z GFDL). If this scenario occurs, it could mean BIG problems for the northern Gulf Coast. Instead of a Category 1 hurricane in South Florida, we could be dealing with a potentially devastating Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Panhandle.

I want to watch the progression of Fay this evening before I shift my track a little more left. Unfortunately, I get a sinking feeling as Fay continues to move west. The more Fay moves to the left, the greater the potential for a disaster.