Some Clouds, Warmer

High cirrus clouds associated with a strong jet streak streamed in early this morning and prevented temperatures from dropping too far. In fact, after hitting 30 earlier, temperatures have since warmed with the arrival of the cirrus canopy. These high clouds will be around through the day and make the high temperature forecast a bit difficult. With even warmer low-level temperatures today than yesterday, I think we should be able to manage 62 despite the high clouds, but I'll undercut guidance and the NWS. The clouds should be gone by this evening, but moisture slowly returns in advance of our next storm system. Lows overnight should drop to around 36. A sneak peek of the forecast for Thanksgiving looks nice for the most part with temperatures in the upper 60s. However, rain chances will return Thursday night and last through Friday.

Pleasant Weather

Temperatures are below freezing this morning, but that won't lost very long as we'll rebound nicely despite the cold frontal passage. While a cold front did pass through yesterday, the core of its cold air was shunted to our east. That means that temperatures aloft still support temperatures very close to yesterday's highs. I'll go a degree lower than yesterday and forecast a high of 60 today. Skies will be sunny this afternoon and give way to crystal clear skies this evening. With dew points forecast to drop into the upper 20s with light winds tonight, I think we'll drop to 28 by tomorrow morning. Even warmer temperatures are likely tomorrow and Thanksgiving. Our next chance of rain looks to accompany another cold front late Thursday night and Friday.

Rainy Start to Week

After an unexpected cloudy weekend, we're socked in with clouds and rain around the area this morning. This weather is expected and is the result of a cold front that currently stretches from Illinois through Northeast Texas. The trough that will accompany this cold front will push the front through the area this afternoon. Ahead of and just behind this front, showers will be likely, especially between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. Make sure you bring an umbrella today because we could receive up to 0.5" of rain. Temperatures won't rise too much today, and in fact, we should only top out around 59 early this afternoon with temperatures dropping steadily after 3 p.m. Skies should clear this evening, but with a wet ground and the wind staying up, we should drop to 35 degrees tomorrow morning.

The main cold pocket in this trough will bypass us to the east so it doesn't look like temperatures will be significantly colder tomorrow. In fact, they may only be a tad cooler than today. A warming trend begins Wednesday and Thanksgiving looks mild in advance of another cold front due in here on Friday. Rain may be possible late Thursday night, but the best chance will be on Friday. Some storms are certainly possible Friday, and I'll be keeping a close eye on this system as we head through the week.

A Taste of Winter

Temperatures are below freezing this morning and feel even colder with northwest winds between 5 and 10 mph. These winds should subside this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes, but it's still going to quite chilly in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage. Despite full sunshine, we'll only manage to hit 46 today. Stronger winds this morning may keep wind chills into the 30s, but the wind chill shouldn't be much of a factor this afternoon as the winds decrease. By tonight, a strong 1036 mb high pressure will be located just to our north. With clear skies, very dry air, and light winds, it will be another excellent radiational cooling setup and we'll experience a hard freeze. I don't think we'll realize our full potential with winds forecast to be 2-5 mph overnight, but I still think we bottom out near 22 tomorrow morning. Nonetheless, it will be a very cold start to the morning. A warming trend is in store for the weekend as high pressure slides east and turns the winds back to the southeast. Highs will climb back into the 50s Saturday and possibly lower 60s Sunday. The weekend will be dry, but a cold front approaches the area by Monday and increases rain chances.

Up and Down Weather

The temperature roller coaster continues today ahead of a southward moving cold front. Ahead of the front, we should warm up nicely later this afternoon with any mixing. Very warm air just above the surface should allow highs to top out around 61 this afternoon. There is very little moisture for the cold front to work with, but you may notice a few high clouds associated the front tonight. Otherwise, the only way you'll know a front has passed is to experience the temperature difference tomorrow. Another reinforcing cold shot will occur in the wake of the front, but the coldest morning won't be tomorrow. Still, it looks likes we will drop to near 29 tomorrow morning despite gusty north winds. If you're going to be outside at all tonight, expect temperatures to feel much colder than they are given the strong winds Tomorrow will be very cold with highs struggling to reach 50 and then the coldest night of the year is on tap. We could be looking at lows in the lower 20s for Saturday morning! More on that tomorrow

Thanksgiving and Beyond Forecast

The last several days have been a roller coaster of temperature swings with one or two warm days followed by a couple of cool days. Reinforcing cold fronts have been responsible for this, and this pattern looks to continue for the next 6 days. The upper air pattern flattens out by the weekend which will bump temperatures upward, but this will be short lived as another cold front and trough dip down into the South early next week. The latest model guidance indicates that the cold front will swing through the area Monday and bring us a decent shot of rain. Behind the front, I think we transition back to colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday. With the source region of the Canadian air mass originating from Manitoba, I think temperatures will be cold but not significantly cold. If the source region were further east, I would expect even colder air given that temperatures in Ontario and Quebec are 1-4 standard deviations below normal. Standard deviations in Manitoba are 0 to 1 below normal so this should allow colder air but nothing record setting. Still, I wouldn't discount the possibility that highs next Tuesday don't make it out of the 40s.




Given the near neutral North Atlantic Oscillation, the cold air won't have a long residence time in our area. In fact, our upper air pattern flattens out by Wednesday and especially for Thanksgiving as the trough shifts east. Correspondingly, temperatures should moderate by Wednesday and could easily be in the 60s for Turkey Day. Once the warmth returns next week, I think we actually keep it around for several days as a ridge builds over the Southeast ahead of a trough over the Desert Southwest. Using the forecast trough/ridge pattern in Eastern Asia on Friday, I feel somewhat confident that a ridge sets up over the Southeast late next week and into the weekend. This should allow us to really warm up and for return flow to be established for a few days before the trough swings eastward. This could be setting the stage for a stormy end to the month or beginning to December.

Sunny And Warmer

It's a very cold start to the morning with temperatures around 25, but we should rebound remarkably later this afternoon. The large diurnal temperature range that we will experience today can be attributed to the dry air we have in place as evident by dew points in the lower 20s. High pressure is entrenched over us this morning, but it will shift eastward today and turn the winds to the southeast. This will enable afternoon highs to top out around 58. However, if we mix higher in the atmosphere than forecast, we may be 2-3 degrees warmer as very warm air aloft will be present this afternoon. Tonight should be cold again with mostly clear skies and light winds. Since models are suggesting the possibility of a few clouds and winds being slightly higher, I think we drop to 33 tomorrow morning.

Sunny But Cold

A weak cold front pushed through the area overnight and has brought even colder and drier air. Temperatures are barely above freezing with dew points in the 20s this morning. With such dry air in place, it might not be a bad idea to carry the Chap Stik with you today. Today will be the coldest day of the season despite plentiful sunshine. We'll struggle to make it out of the 40s, and I think we only top out around 49 this afternoon. When the sun sets, we'll really experience the cold air tonight as an ideal radiational cooling setup will be in place. I'm undercutting the guidance and NWS given light winds, clear skies, and very dry air, which should allow us to bottom out near 24 overnight. However, if the wind is blowing at all, we'll likely be 2-3 degrees warmer. Be sure to bring your pets inside tonight! The future upper air pattern suggests cooler and drier than normal weather for the next 7 days. Our next chance of rain won't come until at least Tuesday of next week.

A classic +PNA pattern is evident this morning with a ridge anchored out west and a trough over the Eastern U.S. This trough was responsible for the chilly weather over the weekend and will continue to dominate our weather for the next couple of days. In fact, the trough will only deepen over the next 24 hours and send a weak cold front through the area which will provide a reinforcing shot of cooler air tomorrow. Before doing so, however, we should manage to warm up nicely compared to the previous two days. With only a few passing clouds this afternoon, I think highs can manage to top out around 60. This front will have very limited moisture so I'm not expecting any rain at all. After the frontal passage, we should be left with colder and drier air. The only factor preventing us from dropping near freezing tomorrow morning will be the wind speed remaining too high. Despite this, I still think we wind up near 33 overnight. Tomorrow looks like the coldest day of the season with highs potentially remaining in the 40s.

Rain Returns, Warmer

Be careful on your drive to work or school this morning as fog is pretty thick around the area with temperatures in the lower 50s. After a very short lived break from the wet weather, rain and thunderstorms will be possible later today as an upper level storm system moves across the Gulf Coast. Before that happens, we will actually see sunshine at times this morning and early afternoon after the fog dissipates. As a result, temperatures should have no problem reaching the 70s, and I believe we could top out around 73 this afternoon. Clouds will increase again early this afternoon, and rain chances will begin to creep upwards by mid-afternoon. Our best shot at rain will hold off until this evening and last through early Saturday morning.


As the storm system exits the area, it will usher in much colder air. In fact, the highest temperature tomorrow will likely come at midnight will falling temperatures throughout the day. The low tomorrow morning should be around 49 and won't rise much past that. Tomorrow will be a nasty day with mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds, and a high around 51. It will feel much colder than that with a gusty northwest wind. Sunday will be a touch warmer, but highs may not get past 54.

If you're headed over to Tuscaloosa to watch MSU tangle with the Crimson Tide on Saturday night, take a jacket and dress warmly. It will be cloudy with temperatures around 47 at kickoff. The wind will make it feel even colder than that.

Cloudy But Warmer

A complex pattern rules our weather this week. The main trough responsible for ejecting individual short waves remains to our southwest. As long as this is the case, we're not going to clear out anytime soon. In fact, rain chances will slowly creep back into the picture tomorrow evening. However, today looks we'll have a chance to dry out despite the meager 0.21" of rain that fell yesterday. Sunshine is going to be tough to come by, but the sky may lighten up for a brief period this afternoon. In line with that optimism, I think we can manage to top out around 69 this afternoon. We'll cool off a bit more tonight, but with return flow cranking up and cloudy skies, I still think we only drop to around 54 tomorrow morning.

Wet

The title of the post is short and is the best word to sum up today's weather. An organizing storm system is taking shape in Texas and is the culprit for the current showers and will be responsible for another round of rain later today. An umbrella will be a necessity today. Most of the rain should exit the area late tonight or early Thursday morning. Temperatures won't rise much from this morning, but we'll wind up near 60 this afternoon. Also, temperatures won't fall much tonight either as lows will be around 55 when you wake up tomorrow morning. If you've ever wanted to experience Pacific Northwest weather, today is a great case. Maybe a bit warm but the rain and small diurnal temperature range are close matches.

Mississippi Fall Foliage

I'm long overdue to discuss fall foliage, but I snapped some images in the Noxubee Wildlife Refuge yesterday. I probably just missed the peak by a couple of days, but there were still some nice colors. Enjoy the images below.

Rainy, Cool

A cold front currently situated west of the Dallas-Fort Worth area will slowly progress eastward today, but ahead of the front, upper level energy will combine with warm air advection to aid in the development of showers today. It's going to take a while for rain to reach the surface with dew points in the upper 30s, but we should have enough moisture in place by this early afternoon to allow rain to reach the surface. Don't be surprised to see some sprinkles this morning, but our best chance for rain will hold off until this evening and last into Wednesday morning. Still, it wouldn't be a bad idea to take an umbrella with you today. Temperatures are going to be tricky today, especially if we get evaporational cooling this morning. With this in mind, I'm going to undercut model guidance and the NWS and forecast a high of 60 this afternoon. A good soaking rain will fall tonight and temperatures will be near 51 tomorrow morning. Light rain could be lingering around tomorrow morning as well as you drive to work or school.

Cool and Comfortable

After a beautiful weekend, it's hard to imagine our weather could change so quickly within a matter of 24 hours. That's certainly what will happen as a trough and associated cold front moves our way tomorrow. In the meantime, however, we'll start the day with freezing temperatures, but we'll end the day around 61. You might especially enjoy today because there is a chance of rain each day for the remainder of the week. In fact, the wettest days appear to be Tuesday and Wednesday. In advance of the cold front, clouds will begin to increase tonight and will keep temperatures much warmer than than the last two mornings. Look for the morning low to be near 44. I'm not overly concerned with severe weather for our area due to extensive cloud cover and the timing of the thunderstorms mainly arriving during the evening hours. This will significantly decrease the amount of instability and will prevent a big threat of severe weather.

Morning Rain, Cooler

The long awaited cold front moved through early this morning and brought a line of showers very early. Since then, the band of showers has expanded in coverage ahead of the main upper air forcing. At this time, the back edge of the rain is very close to Winona and should slowly progress east through the morning hours. Before the rain ends by noon, expect a wet morning with moderate rain at times as you head to work or school. Temperatures are fairly tricky today, especially trying to determine whether the sun returns this afternoon. I think clouds hang around through early afternoon and then we may see the sun return. If this scenario is correct, I think we manage to top out near 62 this afternoon. If the clouds hang around until this evening, highs don't make it out of the 50s. Tonight should be clear with light winds, but excess soil moisture will likely keep us from getting as cold as we could. Still, I temperatures tomorrow morning will be near 42.

The weekend looks great with abundant sunshine and highs in the upper 60s Saturday but cooler on Sunday with highs in the lower 60s. Our next weather maker will move onshore in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow and take a few days to make it towards our neck of the woods. This system never really deepens and digs very far south, but we should at least have another chance of rain and storms beginning Tuesday. Considerable model differences make it difficult to determine whether severe weather will be possible with this system. At this time, I'm thinking a minimal risk given the poor upper level pattern. I may have another update over the weekend to update my thoughts on the severe weather possibilities.

Rain Returns

A strong cold front is located from Eastern Texas to Iowa but is quickly becoming occluded and losing its punch. Still, this front will have plenty of gas left to affect our weather. We've been dry for almost two weeks, but that will come to an end tonight and early Friday morning as the cold front approaches. For the large majority of today, expect partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures again. We'll finally have warmer temperatures aloft to support highs around 77 this afternoon. The cold front approaches by this evening and moisture should really increase. A line of showers and thunderstorms will organize along the front and these should arrive in Oktibbeha County just before midnight. The rain and storms may very well be lingering around for your drive to work Friday morning with temperatures remaining steady near 60.

The prospects of severe weather don't look very promising to me. First of all, an occluding front isn't the most ideal lifting mechanism for storms in the first place. Still, the lift will be present for thunderstorms to develop, but instability should remain very meager and should inhibit most of the storms from becoming severe. The chances for severe weather are higher further south and west in Mississippi where slightly higher instability will reside this afternoon and evening.

It looks like temperatures will remain rather cool for a few days after the frontal passage. However, we're in a very active pattern and our next weather maker will arrive next Tuesday or Wednesday. I'll be keeping a close eye on this system because some models are forecasting higher instability with that system. However, the track of the system will be a key to whether we deal with severe weather or not. If it tracks to our south, we won't deal with much severe weather, but if it's to our north, chances for severe weather will increase. I'll be very surprised if we make it through November 20 without at least one severe weather episode.

Sunny and Mild

A digging trough in the Rockies will amplify a ridge over the Southeast U.S. and will provide above normal temperatures again today. Despite the models and the NWS forecast calling for upper 70s today, I'm still not going that high as low-level temperatures do not support highs that warm. Still, I think we'll top out around 75 this afternoon under sunny skies. With south winds pumping up the moisture quality of the air today and tonight, we won't get as cold tomorrow morning. In fact, a few clouds and higher dew points may keep our morning lows near 50.

A storm system in the central part of the country will produce severe weather in the warm sector from Texas to Iowa and snow in the Rockies and the Dakotas today. In fact, blizzard conditions are likely in the Dakotas with snowfall amounts up to 2 feet possible! The storm system will approach our area late tomorrow, but it will be dying as it moves through. Despite this, we may see a line of thunderstorms move through the area early Friday morning. I don't think severe weather will be a problem with this line since it will come during a period of minimum instability.

Weather No Excuse Not to Vote

If you live anywhere in Mississippi, you can't blame the weather on keeping you away from the polls today. Do your duty as an American and get out and vote. If you're headed out this morning, it will be a little cool as temperatures are in the mid 40s, but we'll warm up nicely this afternoon with a high around 74. We should be able to drop to around 44 tonight with clear skies and light winds. Some models insist on higher dew points keeping temperatures slightly higher, but I don't believe our dew points will jump into the upper 40s tonight. A predominantly easterly wind will keep us cut-off from the Gulf of Mexico and inhibit a large spike in moisture.

A large ridge of high pressure is centered in the North Atlantic and would ordinarily turn our winds to a more southerly component. The main impetus is an inverted trough off the Carolina coast that is keeping our winds more easterly. The reason I mentioned this is not only for our forecast tonight, but this inverted trough could be a big player for the severe weather potential in the Central Plains and Missouri Valley tomorrow. It's very likely this inverted trough will inhibit significant moisture return as a deep trough and associated cold front sweep eastward across the Plains. If this happens, the chances of a severe weather outbreak decrease markedly. Despite limited moisture, the dynamics are strong enough to still warrant a severe weather risk with damaging winds being the primary threat. This system will slowly decay and weaken before it pushes a cold front through our area on Thursday. Severe weather looks less and less likely for our area, but some strong storms are certainly possible with the passage of the front. It appears as though we're headed for cooler temperatures after the frontal passage.

Warm Start to Week

The weather was perfect over the weekend, and I hope you were able to get outside and enjoy it. If not, you're still going to be in luck for a few more days with cool nights and warm afternoons. Our upper air pattern is somewhat odd looking with a weak ridge to our north and a very diffuse trough to our south. The ridge will be the dominant weather maker for us today. With warmer low level temperatures forecast today than yesterday, we should be able to top out around 75 this afternoon with very few clouds in the sky. I think we get a bit cooler than the models suggest for tomorrow morning with clear skies and light winds. Tuesday's morning low will be near 44.

Big changes are on the way, however, as a strong trough slams the California coast later today. This trough will dig and move eastward over the next few days. It will deliver snows to the higher elevations in the West and severe weather to the Plains, Midwest, and South. In fact, this will be our big weather maker for the end of the week and will bring us a good chance of rain and storms. This doesn't appear to be a classic severe weather setup for our area with the main energy moving to our north, but some severe weather will be possible with this system.