Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Weather No Excuse Not to Vote

If you live anywhere in Mississippi, you can't blame the weather on keeping you away from the polls today. Do your duty as an American and get out and vote. If you're headed out this morning, it will be a little cool as temperatures are in the mid 40s, but we'll warm up nicely this afternoon with a high around 74. We should be able to drop to around 44 tonight with clear skies and light winds. Some models insist on higher dew points keeping temperatures slightly higher, but I don't believe our dew points will jump into the upper 40s tonight. A predominantly easterly wind will keep us cut-off from the Gulf of Mexico and inhibit a large spike in moisture.

A large ridge of high pressure is centered in the North Atlantic and would ordinarily turn our winds to a more southerly component. The main impetus is an inverted trough off the Carolina coast that is keeping our winds more easterly. The reason I mentioned this is not only for our forecast tonight, but this inverted trough could be a big player for the severe weather potential in the Central Plains and Missouri Valley tomorrow. It's very likely this inverted trough will inhibit significant moisture return as a deep trough and associated cold front sweep eastward across the Plains. If this happens, the chances of a severe weather outbreak decrease markedly. Despite limited moisture, the dynamics are strong enough to still warrant a severe weather risk with damaging winds being the primary threat. This system will slowly decay and weaken before it pushes a cold front through our area on Thursday. Severe weather looks less and less likely for our area, but some strong storms are certainly possible with the passage of the front. It appears as though we're headed for cooler temperatures after the frontal passage.

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