Mostly Cloudy, Showers, and Warmer

Significant low level moisture increased overnight and caused a low stratus deck to form. This low cloud deck effectively acted like a blanket to keep temperatures in the upper 40s overnight. Forecasting the evolution of this low cloud deck will be the key to this afternoon's high temperature. Pesky upper air disturbances will pass through the state today and will only compound the forecasting challenge. These disturbances could kick off a few showers this morning, which would only keep temperatures even cooler. Judging by infrared satellite, it looks like we will stay cloudy for most of this morning. However, a small break in the low stratus deck has been created over Western Mississippi and could brush us later in the morning. If it does so, temperatures could quickly jump given warm air advection above the surface. The low clouds will likely return again this afternoon and keep temperatures steady. I'll hedge my high temperature forecast based on this scenario and forecast that we top out around 64 this afternoon. The stratus deck will persist this evening and temperatures will be around 52 tomorrow morning.