Much Warmer, Storms Possible

The passage of the warm front overnight really changed the feel of the air. Yesterday was quite cold with rain falling north of the warm front. A step outside this morning feels much warmer and muggy. The storms and rain we experienced overnight have moved to the east into Alabama and Georgia and weakened considerably. Fortunately, warm air advection aloft helped create a strong enough cap overnight that prevented the elevated storms from tapping the instability.

The main cold front associated with this system remains to our west so we're not completely out of the woods from rain and storms until the early afternoon hours. An isolated severe storm is not out of the question given that MLCAPE values are forecast as high as 750 J kg-1 and deep layer shear exceeds 70 knots. Greater chances for severe weather will exist to our south where better instability will be available. I believe the tornado threat for our area is minimal given that winds are aligned in the same direction virtually throughout the troposphere. However, the presence of dry air aloft and strong winds just above the surface suggests that any healthy, sustained updrafts will have the potential to produce damaging winds. Outside of the thunderstorms, winds will also be gusty this afternoon as the cold front approaches and moves through. Highs this afternoon will reach 72.

The majority of the clouds should clear by early evening, but a low stratus deck may persist through for several hours this evening before clearing early Thursday morning. With cold air advection occurring behind the front, I think we'll drop to 36 tomorrow morning.