Friday, February 20, 2009

Sunny, Slightly Warmer

This morning's temperatures are proof to undercut guidance in ideal radiational cooling setup. We're currently beginning the day at a cold 23 degrees, but we'll actually see a large diurnal range by the end of the day. Weak warm air advection will commence later today as our upper flow flattens in advance of our next storm system coming from Alberta, Canada. Skies will remain sunny throughout today, but the high temperature forecast is a little tricky. Both the NAM and GFS do not show mixing up to 850 mb, which would support temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. I'll be a little more conservative and forecast a high of 55 today. Skies will remain clear tonight, but southerly winds will advect moisture northward and keep morning lows around 32.

Clouds will increase late Saturday morning in advance of our next storm system so try to get outdoor activities in during the morning. Temperatures will jump into the upper 50s before rain arrives Saturday afternoon.. This fast moving system will have very little moisture to work with so don't look for impressive rainfall totals. The rain should end by Saturday evening, and much colder air will follow the frontal passage. A few low clouds will hang around Sunday morning and highs will likely be in the mid to upper 40s in the afternoon. Don't fret warm weather fans -- springlike temperatures will return by the middle of next week!

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