Tornado Watch Continues, Snow Tomorrow Night?

The SPC re-issued a tornado watch for Oktibbeha County and surrounding counties until 3:00 a.m. There have been some severe thunderstorm warnings issued this afternoon and evening, but most of the storms have remained below severe limits. Thunderstorms will continue to develop to our west and will gradually spread eastward overnight. There is still some severe weather threat given that elevated instability is present, but I think hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. I'm still extremely concerned about the flooding potential in and around the area. We have already picked up 4.71" of rain at MSU and another inch and a half is certainly possible overnight. Use extreme caution if you'll be driving tonight or tomorrow morning.

The next big weather story will quickly develop tomorrow night. The 18Z NAM guidance came in much wetter than previous runs, but the latest 00Z run has cut that amount in half. The GFS continues to remain consistent with a forecast around 0.15" of liquid water. I do note that the general trend of both the NAM and GFS has been to track the upper low slightly further to the west. If this does indeed verify, it will put us in close proximity to the upper low, but more importantly, it will place us in a more favorable position for uplift. I'm becoming slightly more confident that snow will occur in our area, but I'm not confident in much accumulation. The soil temperature is around 57 F and we may have almost 6" over water on the ground so this makes me somewhat skeptical on accumulations. It would take a tremendous burst of precipitation for an extended period to be able to accumulate on the ground. I'll have another update on the winter weather threat tomorrow.