Warm, Severe Storms Overnight

We were grazed overnight by a large convective complex that dropped copious amounts of rain in drought-stricken areas to our south. A few showers are currently lingering just to our north and west and it's possible we could see a few sprinkles before 8 a.m. However, the strong impulse that generated the light rain and large convective complex to our south will soon pass through and may actually allow for a long period of dry weather today. Temperatures are currently in the lower 60s thanks southerly winds and low clouds. Low clouds will be left in the wake of this disturbance for much of the morning hours, but we may be able to see some sunshine for this afternoon.. In fact, infrared satellite imagery suggests that the sun may be mixed with the clouds at times this afternoon, as suggested by the GFS, and this may boost temperatures to near 77.

By this evening, a powerful upper air disturbance located over Texas will begin to swing eastward. In response to this, aloft, upper level winds will significantly strengthen. At the surface, a surface low pressure center and associated cold front over Northeast Texas will slide eastward and will be located in Northwest Mississippi by midnight tonight. In advance of this low and cold front, moisture will rapidly increase, but it appears that the large convective complex this morning may disrupt the quality of the moisture return. The quality of the moisture returns holds large ramifications on the weather threats tonight. Regardless of the quality of moisture return, a squall line should consolidate and march across lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Just ahead of this squall line, if dew points can jump back up to 64, a narrow window will exist for a few discrete supercells to form in Northeast Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, and Western Mississippi after 9 p.m. The key question will likely be how long these isolated supercells, if they develop, can remain discrete? If they remain discrete for several hours, this greatly increases the chance for tornadoes in our area given that the surface low and warm front will be in close proximity. If these storms are absorbed into the squall line, there will still be a threat of isolated tornadoes, but damaging winds would be the primary threat. Given the forecast orientation of the shear vectors with respect to the cold front, I think it's possible that the supercells will remain discrete for a few hours after they form, but I think the squall line's faster speed will absorb the cells before they reach Oktibbeha County. Therefore, I think our main threat will be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado is certainly possible. The storms should roll through our area between 1-4 a.m. I understand this is a time when most people will be in bed, but I think it would be a wise investment to buy a weather radio today. Turn it on tonight, and you'll have peace of mind knowing that you'll be warned for severe weather overnight. The low temperature tomorrow morning will be 62.

If there is a silver lining to the severe weather, it's that the weekend weather looks much cooler. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s on Saturday afternoon despite the cold frontal passage on Saturday morning. It looks like skies may clear Saturday afternoon and allow for some sunshine. That may be short lived as the upper air disturbance pivots across the region Saturday night. Low clouds will return and a few sprinkles are possible early Sunday morning. With low clouds around much of Saturday and cold air advection, we may only top out near 60. We'll warm up nicely again next week with another chance of storms possible early in the week.