Hefty Storms This Afternoon, Warm

It's a muggy, foggy start to the morning with temperatures in the lower 60s. Upper air charts this morning show an active subtropical jet that has sparked off a round of convection that extends from the northern Gulf of Mexico to North Carolina. Another area of convection is currently approaching Northwest Louisiana and is associated with the powerful storm system that will arrive in here this afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure is located in Southern Oklahoma with a trailing cold front that is approaching the I-35 corridor in Texas. This surface low is forecast to be in Western Tennessee this evening with the cold front along the Alabama/Mississippi border. This means that the best chance for rain and storms for our area will be before 8 p.m. I think we stay dry through the morning and early afternoon, but the chance for storms will increase after 2 p.m. With the expected instability and shear in place, these storms will likely be severe in our area. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible. I'll post more on the severe weather threat in a little while, but make sure you are close to a source of weather information later today.

Judging by infrared satellite imagery and forecast soundings, I think it's possible there may be some breaks in the clouds at times this morning and possibly early afternoon. I would be surprised to see full sunshine so I'll forecast a high of 75. However, if there is more sunshine, we could actually approach 80 degrees. On the other hand, if the fog has a tough time dissipating and low clouds hang tough, we'll probably be near 70 today. Rain and storms should exit the area by 7 p.m. as the cold front sweeps through, but low clouds will return late tonight as the upper air disturbance passes through. The upper air low could even squeeze out a few light showers after midnight. Tomorrow morning's low will be 47.